The Nigeria Natural Resource Charter (NNRC) Benchmarking Exercise Report (BER) 2017[1] assessed the operational activities in the nation’s oil and gas sector between 2015 and 2017 against the Natural Resource Charter[2]. The exercise sought to unveil the true state of oil resource extraction, governance, and transparency among others based on a set of underlying economic principles in line with international best practices. One of the precepts assessed is on State Owned Enterprises (SOE) with Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) as a case study. Although the report recognized mild positive changes in the NNPC, it scored the corporation low on the aggregate in the focus period. In sum, it concludes that the country is not getting the most from the nation’s oil and gas firm in many fronts and suggests a reform that gravitates the corporation towards a commercially-driven and globally-competitive entity. This brief provides actionable policy recommendations that can enhance the operational and financial competitiveness of NNPC, especially in response to the challenges identified in the 2017 BER.

[1] http://www.nigerianrc.org/2017-benchmark-report/

[2] The Natural Resource Charter is a set of principles on how to best harness the opportunities created by extractive resources for development for governments and societies rich in non-renewable natural resources.

concerns about an impending debt crisis in Africa are rising alongside the region’s growing debt levels. As of 2017, 19 African countries have exceeded the 60 percent debt-to-GDP threshold set by the African Monetary Co-operation Program (AMCP) for developing economies, while 24 countries have surpassed the 55 percent debt-to-GDP ratio suggested by the International Monetary Fund. Surpassing this threshold means that these countries are highly vulnerable to economic changes and their governments have a reduced ability to provide support to the economy in the event of a recession.

While debt is a global issue, Africa’s past debt crises have been devastating, creating the need to cautiously monitor this recent debt buildup. There are parallels between the present rising debt in Africa  and the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative period that proffer solutions for prevent another crisis.

Figure 1: Government debt as a percent of GDP for African countries, 2017

Source: IMF, 2018. Regional Economic Outlook

 The events that led to HIPC and the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI) started in the 1960s from a public spending spree by recently independent countries to stimulate their economies through rapid investment in industry and infrastructure projects (Figure 2). Commodity booms and heavy use of external debt supported this spending as policy leaders relied on future export earnings and economic growth to improve the capacity to service the debt. Notably, those countries did not reduce expenditures during negative commodity shocks and instead took on more loans.Three key factors drove the subsequent debt crisis—the 1980s global recession, the rise in interest rates in developed countries, and a decline in real net capital inflows, which was largely due to the real negative interest rate in many countries.

As a result, the external debt-to-gross national income (GNI) ratio for the continent rose from 49 percent in 1980 to 104 percent in 1987. The World Bank’s Structural Adjustment Program attempted to tackle the problems by reducing fiscal deficits through expenditure cuts, but these austerity measures had severe, adverse impacts on social spending (and thus on livelihoods), and resulted in large current account deficits, astronomical inflation, and depressed currencies. This situation led the World Bank and the IMF to establish the HIPC initiative in 1996 to provide debt relief and reduce debt service payments of up to 80 percent for eligible countries.

Figure 2. Description of events leading to Africa’s indebtedness in the 1970s and early 1980s

In addition, in 2005 the IMF initiated the MDRI, which provided full debt relief on eligible debt. Under HIPC and MDRI, 36 countries, including 30 African ones, reached the completion point (the phase at which total debt relief is received) resulting in debt relief of $99 billion by the end of 2017. Between 1999 and 2008 alone, HIPC and MDRI reduced the external debt-to-GNI ratio for the region from 119 percent to 45 percent.

IS AFRICA HEADING BACK TO THE HIPC ERA?

Not quite…but the present composition of debt is worrisome.

The drivers of the present rising debt situation are similar to, but not the same as, that of the HIPC era (see Figure 3). In the wake of the 2007-2008 global financial crisis, governments deployed countercyclical spending to compensate for depressed private sector spending.

Another key driver was the huge rise in public expenditure on infrastructure—an effort to close the huge infrastructure gap (Africa needs to spend $93 billion annually from 2009 to 2020 to close its infrastructure gap).Of greatest magnitude was the 2014 negative commodity price shock, which dramatically reduced government revenues.

Figure 3. Description of events leading to the present debt situation

The aforementioned factors led to a decline in primary balance  from 3.9 percent of GDP between 2006 and 2008 to -6.9 percent of GDP by 2015 with countries borrowing excessively to meet public expenditure. The commodity price shock caused a depreciation in the exchange rate for several countries. Following the depreciation, foreign currency- denominated debt increased significantly.

A distinctive feature of the ongoing rising debt problem is the composition of debt. Countries are tilting away from official multilateral creditors who come with stringent conditions and toward non-concessional debt with relatively higher interest rates and lower maturities. This trend raises concerns around debt sustainability given the possibility of higher refinancing risks—particularly for commodity-backed loans in the event of a commodity price shock—and foreign exchange risks.

Furthermore, private non-guaranteed debt has grown: Between 2006 and 2017, private sector external loans tripled from $35 billion to $110 billion. This growth could result in a balance of payment problems as the private sector competes with the public sector for foreign exchange. Also, it may increase the government’s exposure to risks associated with contingent liabilities in the event of a default.

Another noteworthy trend is that countries witnessing a deepening of their financial markets are increasingly borrowing from their domestic debt market. South Africa, Kenya, and Nigeria, among others, have been issuing long-term bonds for large capital projects such as roads and hospitals. While tapping into the domestic debt market provides a sound alternative and does not expose the country to foreign exchange risk, it has the potential to crowd out private sector borrowing, thus hampering investment and output growth.

WHAT CAN BE DONE?

The rising debt burden across the continent is clearly a concern for borrowers, lenders, and the broader international community. Nevertheless, it is important to note that the present debt level is far below that of the HIPC era: In 2017, public debt as a percent of GDP in sub-Saharan Africa was 45.9 percent relative to the 117 percent external debt-to- GNI ratio of 1995. Also noteworthy is that sovereign debt financing is inevitable given that African countries budgetary resources are insufficient to finance their vast development agenda. Thus, in ensuring that all stakeholders become more prudent, we recommend the following:

1.   Better debt management

 Despite the spike in sovereign borrowing, sub-Saharan Africa’s performance in debt management has consistently declined from 3.34 in 2014 to 3.08 in 2017 (on a rating scale from 1 to 6). For those without, authorities need to design and implement formal and legal frameworks for debt management that stipulate borrowing targets and preferences for borrowing sources. Countries can tap into the support programs provided by the IMF and the World Bank. Also, establishing systems and processes to ensure up-to-date debt recording and timely debt service payments is necessary for maintaining accountability,

transparency, and sustainable debt levels. With the characteristics of debt changing significantly (e.g., the rise of nontraditional lenders, growth in domestic debt, an increase in private nonguaranteed debt), debt management authorities must utilize more sophisticated means to better analyze the costs and risks of these changes. Overall, these sound debt management practices should be extended to the subnational level and state-owned enterprises to ensure more comprehensive management.

2.   The issuance of “debt-management” financial instruments

Local authorities should issue debt instruments that can better manage the debt level. For instance, the issuance of the sukuk bond— Islamic bonds that allow investors to generate returns by having a share in the ownership of the asset linked to the investment rather than earning interest from the bond—that is tied to capital projects in Nigeria curtail the improper use of debt. Also, they should consider a state-contingent debt instrument that links debt service to predefined macroeconomic variables, such as GDP growth and changes in commodity prices. Thus, shocks that negatively impact fiscal space, such as economic recession, will not increase the debt service burden of the issuing country.

3.   More responsible lending

A debt crisis poses risks to borrowers and lenders alike. For this reason, lenders should focus on making more responsible lending decisions following due process in authorizing loans and possibly stipulating limits. Presently, the codes of conduct that address irresponsible lending such as the G-20’s Operational Guidelines for Sustainable Financing (2017) and the OECD’s Recommendation on Sustainable Lending Practices and Officially Supported Exports Credits (2018) are only binding on traditional creditors. A first step should be the development of new codes or a revision of existing ones to adjust to nontraditional actors. In addition, these codes should be enshrined in law so that participating countries adhere to them. Better coordination, more engagement, and increased information-sharing between traditional and nontraditional lenders is also crucial.

4.   Streamlining procedures 

The World Bank and IMF impose numerous, stringent, and time-consuming conditions on developing countries in order to access development finance, many of which advocate for controversial reforms such as privatization and trade liberalization policies that are not in accordance with the will of the developing country. Streamlining the lending process to reduce the number and scope of conditions to respect national sovereignty and reduce the burden associated with accessing loans is of the utmost importance. The World Bank could also increase the lending program to middle-income countries that still face development challenges like inequality, unplanned urbanization, and a weak private sector. Better engagement with these countries will enable them to consolidate their development gains and make substantial economic and social progress.

This article was first published on Brookings Institute Website

The Nigerian mining and quarrying sector recorded growth in the production of solid minerals in 2018. The total quantity of solid minerals produced rose from 45.7 million tons in 2017, to 55.9 million tons in 2018¹ – representing a 22% increase. Disaggregated by type of solid mineral, Limestone was the most produced - production grew by 95% to 27.2 million tons in 2018, and accounted for about 49% of the total tons of minerals produced. The growth witnessed in the sector may have emerged from the government’s efforts and incentives to develop the sector and also in a bid to diversify the economy. The government had offered mining companies a three to five year “tax holiday”, duty and tax-free importation of equipment, full ownership of their businesses and the ability to take profits out of the country². In addition, the government committed about $100 million intervention fund for the sector and awarded mining contracts to ten exploration and consulting firms, in 2018³. In addition to ongoing interventions, there is need to minimize the indiscriminate export of mineral commodities especially gold, tin and lead-zinc to foreign smelters, as formalizing these activities offers great potential for a significant source of revenue for Nigeria, away from oil.

Nigeria’s aviation sector witnessed substantial improvements in 2018 in both air passenger traffic and cargo movements. Figures from the Federal Airport Authorities of Nigeria show that the number of passengers through Nigerian airports stood at 15.2 million in 2018¹, about 13.4 percent increase from the 13.4 million passengers in 2017². The total cargo movement stood at 245.89 million kilograms compared to 161.80 million kilograms recorded in 2017. With improvements in infrastructure, launch of new aircrafts by air operators, full-capacity schedule flight services, improved regulation, and less inference from the government in 2018³, the sector attracted more customers and ultimately garnered more revenue from the sales of tickets. By implication, these improvements in the industry bolstered the remarkable sectoral annual real growth rate which grew from 1.83 percent in 2017 to 20.7 percent in 2018⁴. Despite the improvements, there is need to create tax incentives that can attract investors that would invest in airport infrastructure upgrade and continuous maintenance to help unlock the full potential of the Nigerian airline industry.

Nigeria’s balance of payment reversed into surplus in the fourth quarter of 2018, after a third-quarter negative period. As reported by the CBN balance of payment estimates showed significant improvements with surplus of $2.80 million in 2018Q4 as against previous quarter’s huge deficit of $4,542.1 million. The current account balance improved from a deficit of $1,544.41 million in Q3 2018 to a surplus of $1,104.57 million in Q4 2018 on account of improvements in goods account - slight increase in export earnings relative to imports. Also, the financial account showed net acquisition of assets of $2,327.91 million in the review period, as opposed to the financial liabilities incurred in the preceding period. To sustain growth in export earnings, there is need to address age-long challenges that inhibit non-oil export trade: particularly dealing with the inefficient and costly transport system as well as broadening the scope of export financing instruments.

The existing education data in Nigeria are Millennium Development Goal (MDG) centric with focus on enrolment, transition and completion statistics, with no statistics on the extent of learning taking place in schools. However, with the new global agenda, Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), focusing on quality education, huge data gap exits in Nigeria to track progress and this should be the immediate task ahead of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the Federal Ministry of Education, which is saddled with ensuring uniform education standard in Nigeria.

Picture Source: Global Partnership for Education

Nigeria is Africa’s most populous country, with an estimated population of 190.9 million; it also has the largest economy, estimated at $376 billion in 2017 (World Bank, 2017). The economy hinges critically on the service sector, while oil is relied upon as the main source of foreign earnings. Despite its huge potential, Nigeria has failed to translate its resource endowment and strategic economic and demographic positions into sustained economic development. In fact, the country’s performance is abysmally low with regard to key development indicators. A portion (46 per cent) of its huge population is poor by World Bank definitions, and socioeconomic outcomes remain among the worst globally (World Bank, 2017). Specifically, Nigeria has the highest number of out-of-school children in the world (13 million in 2018), coupled with high rates of infant and maternal mortality (figure 1). Furthermore, the country suffers from inadequate and dilapidated infrastructure across the energy, housing and transport sectors. This is in relation to about $30 billion in budgeted spending for the 2018 fiscal year by the federal government, which reflects the enormous development financing challenges (Federal Ministry of Budget and National Planning, 2018). Despite these poor development indicators, the country has made modest progress in improving revenue streams, with recent developments in sectors other than oil such as the agriculture and mineral sectors.

By year-end 2018, the country recorded a total trade value of ₦32.3 trillion¹, representing 39.3% increase over the corresponding period in 2017. The volume of total merchandise trade in 2018 is noted to be the highest since 2014, nearly double pre-recession levels. Export component grew by approximately 41%, from ₦13.6 trillion in 2017 to ₦19.1 trillion in 2018. Oil (crude and non-crude) is responsible for the most part of export growth in the review year and accounts for about 94% of total exports. Agriculture and manufacturing sector exports also recorded a boost, rising to ₦302 billion and ₦645.7 billion respectively. Similarly, imports rose by 37.5% to ₦13.2 trillion. With exports exceeding imports, the current account balance of trade improved to ₦5.9 trillion in 2018. To further boost Nigeria’s current account position going forward, supply-side policies to improve the efficiency and competitiveness of domestic industries, and thus exports is crucial.

If managed properly, natural resource exploration could be beneficial to communities where extractive activities take place, either directly through transfer of resource revenues and corporate interventions or through the promotion of local content. However, communities also bear the disproportionate costs of resource extraction from environmental hazard and other socio-economic effects. Effective resource management, therefore, involves maximizing benefits from resources while minimizing the costs imposed on the host communities. Nigeria currently performs below average in managing local impacts of resource extraction. Particularly, the Nigeria Natural Resource Charter (NNRC) conducted a robust assessment of the performance of Nigeria’s oil and gas sector against the 12 precepts of the Natural Resource Charter[1], detailing the relevant findings in their Benchmarking Exercise Report (BER) 2017[2]. Major issues relating to managing local impacts of extractive activities were captured in precept 5. This brief provides actionable policy recommendations that can enhance the management of local impacts of resource extraction, especially in response to the challenges identified in the BER 2017.

[1] The Natural Resource Charter is a set of principles on how to best harness the opportunities created by extractive resources for development for governments and societies rich in non-renewable natural resources.

[2] http://www.nigerianrc.org/2017-benchmark-report/