Publications

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), Africa's landmark regional trade agreement, has the potential to expand intra-African trade and create new economic opportunities, including for women traders. However, achieving these gains requires more than reducing tariffs. Women traders continue to face persistent barriers to participation, including limited access to information, weak institutional support, and concerns about the safety and governance of digital trade systems. This policy brief draws on findings from a randomised survey experiment involving 586 women traders in Lagos and Abuja, Nigeria. The study examined whether providing information about the AfCFTA, with and without additional messaging on data governance and digital privacy, influenced women's trust in digital trade systems and willingness to engage in cross-border trade. The findings show that AfCFTA information increased women's confidence in digital trade systems but did not increase their willingness to trade. When information on data governance and digital privacy was added, both digital trust and willingness to trade declined. These findings suggest that awareness alone is insufficient to increase women's participation in AfCFTA-enabled trade. Strengthening data governance, building trust in digital trade infrastructure, and ensuring gender-responsive institutional protections are essential for inclusive AfCFTA implementation.

This brief was authored by:
Evans Osabuohien, Professor of Economics at Covenant University, Ota 
and Thelma Obiakor, Research Fellow at CSEA.

According to the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) weekly report for July 31st, 2026, the NGX All-Share Index (ASI) declined by 0.84% to close at 245,283.68, while market capitalisation stood at ₦158.326 trillion, a 0.79% decline over the week. Despite the decline in the market's overall performance, trading activity strengthened, with investors exchanging 5.119 billion shares valued at ₦404.762 billion across 285,223 deals, compared to 4.433 billion shares worth ₦306.143 billion traded in 255,589 deals in the preceding week. The financial services industry dominated trading activity, accounting for 3.918 billion shares valued at ₦271.428 billion across 123,514 deals, representing 76.55% of total equity turnover volume and 67.06% of total equity turnover value. The services industry followed with 203.203 million shares worth ₦3.061 billion, while the consumer goods industry ranked third with 191.283 million shares valued at ₦13.203 billion. Although the decline in the ASI and market capitalisation indicates weaker market performance during the week, the increase in trading volume and value suggests that investor participation remained strong despite the downturn. To support market stability and sustain investor confidence, policymakers should sustain reforms that improve market transparency and corporate disclosures while encouraging long[1]term institutional investment. This would help strengthen demand for equities and improve overall market stability. A stable policy environment is also necessary to attract investments.

Summary

Northern Nigeria faces a growing resilience deficit as climate shocks, conflict, and economic instability converge, exposing households to repeated crises that erode livelihoods and deepen poverty. Despite existing policies on disaster management, social protection, and climate adaptation, responses remain largely reactive, focusing on relief rather than strengthening households’ ability to anticipate, absorb, and recover from shocks. Drawing on recent research, this policy brief argues for an integrated resilience system linking early warning, anticipatory action, adaptive social protection, and livelihood recovery. Lessons from sub-Saharan Africa highlight the importance of coordinated institutions, predictable financing, and shock-responsive systems to build lasting resilience.

Key messages

1. Northern Nigeria is increasingly exposed to overlapping climate hazards, conflict and economic shocks that repeatedly erode household assets, livelihoods and resilience.

2. Current disaster risk management and social protection systems remain largely reactive, with limited coverage, delayed financing and weak coordination, reducing their effectiveness in protecting vulnerable households before shocks occur.

3. Nigeria requires an integrated resilience system that links early warning, pre-arranged financing, adaptive social protection and timely livelihood recovery.

4. Strengthening resilience will require scaling up anticipatory action, expanding adaptive social protection, integrating livelihood recovery into existing programmes, and adopting conflict-sensitive climate responses supported by stronger institutional coordination and more predictable financing.

5. Greater political commitment, stronger coordination and sustained financing are also needed to transform systems into a coherent, shock-responsive resilience architecture.


This study, first published HERE, was developed by the Chronic Poverty Advisory Network, represented institutionally by the Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa and the Institute of Development Studies.
The authors are grateful to the FCDO, particularly the Data and Evidence to end Extreme Poverty (DEEP) programme, for financial support. DEEP is funded by the UK government’s Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) through its Global Research and Technology Development portfolio. The author’s views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of FCDO.
Authorship: Adedeji Adeniran, Vidya Diwakar and Jamilu Ilyasu.

According to the 2025 Annual Report and Statement of Accounts published by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Nigeria recorded total foreign exchange (FX) inflows of US$109.86 billion in 2025, representing a 13.81% increase from US$96.53 billion in 2024. This growth was driven largely by autonomous inflows, particularly non-oil export receipts and capital importation. Net FX inflows rose to US$60.81 billion, despite a 27.83% increase in aggregate outflows to US$49.05 billion and a 59.36% rise in overall FX utilisation, which reached US$42.83 billion. FX utilisation was largely concentrated in invisible imports and visible imports for the industrial sector, the latter accounting for 42.11% of total utilisation. Meanwhile, the decline in CBN[1]sourced inflows was primarily attributed to lower receipts from government debt and foreign exchange swap transactions. The increase in net FX inflows underscores the growing contribution of autonomous sources to Nigeria's foreign exchange liquidity. This development has strengthened private-sector liquidity, improved investor confidence, and supported the expansion of non-oil trade. However, the significant increase in autonomous outflows and the economy's ongoing reliance on imported industrial inputs highlight persistent structural weaknesses in the system. These include limited domestic manufacturing capacity and increased vulnerability to volatile short-term capital flows. To sustain this positive momentum, monetary and fiscal authorities must work in close coordination. The CBN and the Federal Government should introduce targeted tax incentives, improve trade and export logistics, and strengthen the competitiveness of the non-oil export sector to promote sustainable autonomous FX earnings over the long term. In addition, maintaining a transparent, market-reflective exchange rate regime, supported by effective regulatory oversight, will help reduce exchange rate volatility, enhance investor confidence, and channel capital inflows into productive sectors of the economy rather than speculative activities.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in its 306th Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, held on 20 and 21 July 2026, decided to retain the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 26.5%, the Standing Facilities Corridor around the MPR at +50/-450 basis points, the Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR) for Deposit Money Banks at 45%, for Merchant Banks at 16%, and non TSA public sector deposits at 75%. The Committee maintained a cautious monetary policy stance, despite a marginal moderation in headline inflation in June 2026, citing global uncertainties due to renewed hostilities in the Middle East. The MPC noted the risk of pass through to domestic inflation from spillovers to global energy prices due to the conflict, while acknowledging the Nigerian economy’s resilience to external shocks. By retaining the MPR, the CBN signalled continued restraint on liquidity and credit growth to consolidate disinflation and exchange rate stability, even though this may keep lending rates high in the near term. By holding the policy rate, the CBN signalled that it is waiting for clearer signs of price stability before easing rates. To further bolster the economy against external shocks, alongside maintaining stable prices, the CBN should boost external reserves by improving FX market transparency and liquidity to reduce volatility, strengthen prudential supervision to ensure banks maintain adequate capital and liquidity buffers, and coordinate with fiscal authorities to align monetary and fiscal actions in support of macroeconomic stability. Furthermore, targeted grants for local production are needed to reduce production costs and, in turn, lower prices.

This report examines the implications of AI adoption for two domains that are central to Africa's development trajectory: the workplace and democratic governance. The analysis reveals that Africa's exposure to AI-driven labour market disruption is concentrated in service-oriented and public sector occupations rather than in the agriculture, trade and construction activities that employ most of the workforce. While this limits near-term displacement risk, it also constrains the productivity gains AI can deliver without complementary investments in digital infrastructure, skills, and innovation ecosystems. On the governance side, the report documents both the potential of AI to improve service delivery, social protection targeting, and public accountability, and the significant risks it poses to civil liberties, electoral integrity, and democratic institutions where safeguards are absent. The report emphasizes key priority interventions in the aspect of digital and energy infrastructure, developing AI relevant skills, enacting inclusive governance frameworks, and embedding human oversight into public sector AI deployments as crucial elements in maximizing gains from AI adoption and mitigating the potential risks.

This was authored by: 
Adedeji Adeniran Ph.D, Obiageli (Oby) Ewunwa, Chidozie Uzoma Nwosu Ph.D and Adeyemi Abel Ajibesin Ph.D

Historical evidence suggests that the AfCFTA has the largest free trade area in the world by number of participating countries, yet Africa remains significantly less regionally integrated than Europe, Asia, and the Americas. On this note, this paper argues that the observed integration deficit in Africa may have stemmed from the failure of the trade, financial, infrastructural, digital, and institutional systems that support economic activity to operate seamlessly across borders. It further argues that well-coordinated regional policies and digital financial integration represent some of the viable mechanisms through which trade, infrastructure, fintech, and cross-border payments can be interconnected. Moreover, consistent with this argument, evidence suggests that both digital adoption and financial inclusion have expanded in Africa, but infrastructure gaps, payment fragmentation, and regulatory divergence continue to constrain economic integration of the continent. Similarly, the empirical findings also support this argument by showing that stronger digital ecosystems are associated with higher regional integration in Africa

This was authored by: 
Chuwuka Onyekwena Ph.D, Jamilu Iliyasu Ph.D, Anthony Bisong, Emmanuel Nwosu Ph.D

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria's headline inflation rate stood at 15.91% year-on-year in June 2026, remaining considerably lower than the 25.29% recorded in June 2025 and easing slightly from 15.93% in May 2026. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased to 143.0 from 140.7 in the previous month, while month-on-month headline inflation moderated to 1.66%, down from 1.75% in May. In contrast, food inflation accelerated, rising from 2.98% month-on-month in May to 3.75% in June, an increase of 0.77 percentage points, and reached 17.52% on a year-on-year basis. This increase is attributed primarily to higher prices of fresh tomatoes, dried green peas, beef, cassava flour, and garri, among other food items. Furthermore, food and non-alcoholic beverages remained the largest contributors to headline inflation, accounting for 6.37 percentage points of the year-on-year rate and 0.66 percentage points on a month-on-month basis. Consequently, the marginal 0.02 percentage-point decline in headline inflation provides little relief to households, as the moderation has been driven largely by the core basket. In contrast, the food basket, which constitutes a significant share of household expenditure for the average Nigerian, continues to experience upward price pressures, which, in turn, is likely to affect households’ consumption and ultimately their welfare.Therefore, the government should strengthen farm-to-market infrastructure, particularly road networks, and expand storage facilities in surplus-producing states. Such measures would help reduce interstate disparities in food prices and contribute to greater price stability across the country.

According to the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) July 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update, Nigeria's economic growth projection remains unchanged at 4.1% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027, despite heightened global uncertainty arising from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and disruptions to global energy markets. The IMF projects that growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will remain at 4.3% in 2026 and improve to 4.5% in 2027. However, growth prospects across the region vary significantly, depending on the individual countries' policy space, reform implementation, and exposure to external shocks. For Nigeria, improved macroeconomic stability and favourable terms-of[1]trade effects are expected to support economic growth, although higher prices for essential goods are likely to worsen poverty and food insecurity. While the stable growth outlook suggests that recent macroeconomic reforms are supporting economic resilience, rising living costs and food prices remain significant risks to inclusive growth. To sustain growth and cushion households from these pressures, the government should prioritise measures that boost domestic food production, improve agricultural productivity, and strengthen targeted social protection programmes. The government must also sustain reforms that ensure macroeconomic stability and encourage private investment through providing an enabling environment.