Publications

This paper examines how policy reforms influence investment, emphasising the role of policy credibility. Using panel data for African economies, the results confirm that improvements in the policy environment are associated with higher investment. However, these effects are gradual and shaped by persistence in investment behaviour, reflecting the forward-looking nature of capital decisions. The key finding is that the effectiveness of reforms depends on their credibility. Sustained reforms over time generate stronger investment responses, while those subject to reversal or volatility have weaker effects. Policy stability does not independently drive investment; rather, it shapes how reforms are interpreted by investors. These findings suggest that attracting investment requires more than implementing reforms. It requires sustaining them in a consistent and predictable manner. Policy credibility, therefore, emerges as a critical determinant of investment outcomes

Digital safety programming across Africa, and specifically in Nigeria, is often built on the widely held assumption that merely equipping women with digital skills will shield them from online violence. This policy brief, based on the report of the TFVAWG-CSEA-AEGIS project, empirically tests that assumption. The findings reveal a paradox with insightful implications for digital development policies and programming. Using configurational methodologies, specifically Crisp-set and Fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (csQCA and fsQCA), the research reveals that higher digital literacy consistently appears in every pathway leading to TFVAWG, rather than operating as a straightforward protective factor. Hence, constituting a paradoxical situation where the heaviest burden of Technology Facilitated Violence Against Women and Girls (TFVAWG) falls not on the digitally impoverished but on the digitality literate. Digital literacy was found to combine with conditions such as young age and heavy online presence as a reliable pathway to TFVAWG.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in their Global Outlook report for April has revised Nigeria’s 2026 real GDP growth forecast downward to 4.1 percent, from 4.4 percent in its January outlook, reflecting rising input costs, particularly fuel, fertiliser, and shipping, which are weighing on non-oil sector activity. This moderation comes despite some offset from stronger oil prices. The growth path shows relative stability, with output estimated at 4.0 percent in 2025 and projected at 4.1 percent in 2026 and 4.3 percent in 2027. Inflation, while expected to ease, remains elevated, estimated at 23.0 percent in 2025, then declining to 16.0 percent in 2026 and 15.9 percent in 2027. External balances appear positive, with the current account surplus estimated at 5.1 percent of GDP in 2025, rising to 5.8 percent in 2026 before moderating to 3.1 percent in 2027. These revisions reflect a more complex global environment shaped by ongoing geopolitical conflicts, including the Iran crisis, the Russia-Ukraine War, and the Israel-Hamas War, which continue to disrupt energy markets, global supply chains, and shipping routes. For Nigeria, the situation translates into higher imported inflation and cost pressures for production and distribution, particularly in the non-oil sectors. While higher oil prices provide some fiscal and external relief due to higher revenue for government, the asymmetry between oil gains and broader cost pressures limits the transmission of growth, reinforcing structural weaknesses and dampening domestic demand. Policy response should prioritise protecting the domestic economy from external shocks while improving supply-side efficiency. This includes scaling up investments in energy infrastructure, transport logistics, and local input production to reduce import dependence and drive the growth of Nigeria’s productive sector.

According to recent data from the Debt Management Office (DMO), Nigeria’s total public debt stood at ₦159.28 trillion in December 2025, up from ₦153.29 trillion in September 2025, representing a quarterly increase of ₦5.99 trillion (3.90%). A year-on-year comparison shows that total public debt rose by ₦14.61 trillion from ₦144.67 trillion in December 2024, representing a 10.10 percent rise over the period. A breakdown of the debt stock in December 2025 indicates that external debt amounted to ₦74.43 trillion, accounting for 46.73 percent of total public debt. Of this amount, the Federal Government held ₦66.27 trillion, while the States and the Federal Capital Territory accounted for ₦8.16 trillion. Domestic debt was higher at ₦84.85 trillion, representing 53.27 percent of the total, with the Federal Government responsible for ₦80.49 trillion and the States and the FCT for ₦4.36 trillion. This structure highlights the continued dominance of domestic borrowing and the significantly larger debt burden borne by the Federal Government relative to subnational governments. It also demonstrates a sustained reliance on borrowing to meet financing needs, with domestic instruments remaining the primary source of funding. To manage rising debt exposure, fiscal policy should prioritise enhanced non-oil revenue mobilisation to reduce dependence on borrowing, improve expenditure efficiency to contain recurrent spending pressures, and gradually increase reliance on concessional external financing to moderate debt servicing costs.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Company Income Tax (CIT) collections stood at ₦1.49 trillion in Q4 2025, reflecting a significant quarter-on-quarter decline of 49.81 percent from ₦2.96 trillion recorded in Q3 2025. Domestic CIT accounted for ₦819.83 billion, while foreign CIT contributed ₦668.21 billion in the quarter under review. Despite the quarterly drop, collections grew by 13.38 percent year-on-year, indicating some underlying resilience. Sectoral performance was mixed, with activities of extraterritorial organisations and bodies, education, and real estate activities recording the strongest growth, while accommodation and food service activities, activities of households as employers, and mining experienced sharp contractions. Financial and insurance activities, manufacturing, and mining and quarrying remained the least contributors to CIT. The sharp quarter-on-quarter decline suggests fluctuations in corporate earnings and possible timing effects in tax remittances, particularly from key sectors such as mining and manufacturing. The divergence between strong year-on-year growth and weak quarter-on-quarter performance indicates that while overall economic activity may be improving, it remains uneven and susceptible to sector-specific shocks. The concentration of tax contributions in a few sectors also highlights structural imbalances in the tax base. Policy efforts should focus on broadening the Corporate Income Tax (CIT) base by enhancing compliance across underperforming sectors and reducing reliance on a narrow set of industries. Strengthening tax administration, improving transparency in remittance processes, and supporting sectoral diversification, particularly in non-extractive industries, is critical. Furthermore, stabilising the macroeconomic environment to support business profitability can help ensure more consistent and sustainable tax revenues over time. Most business activities in Nigeria are also largely informal; hence, they are difficult to tax. Thus, efforts should be geared towards the formalisation of businesses to enable their inclusion into the tax net, but such measures will be more effective if these businesses are able to hold the government accountable.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics’ (NBS) Selected Food Price Watch report for February 2026, the average price of brown beans (1 kg) stood at ₦1,307.44, reflecting a 46.98 percent year-on- year (YoY) decline from ₦2,465.96 in February 2025 but a 3.57 percent month-on-month (MoM) rise from January 2026. Similarly, the price of locally produced rice (1 kg) averaged ₦1,858.93 in the month under review, an 11.01 percent YoY drop from ₦2,088.82, though it increased 0.93 percent MoM from ₦1,841.83 in January. The price of garri (white, 1 kg sold loose) averaged ₦790.62, down 38.10 percent YoY but up 2.42 percent from January 2026. Likewise, the average prices of tomatoes (1 kg, sold loose) fell 3.03 percent YoY to ₦1,077.43 yet rose 5.15 percent MoM. Similarly, the average price of small white crayfish (1 kg) surged 36.41 percent YoY to ₦8,785.16, while also increasing 1.44 percent MoM. Across states, Oyo recorded the highest average price for brown beans (1 kg) at ₦1,924.61, while Taraba had the lowest at ₦700.00. Kogi reported the highest average price for locally produced rice (1 kg) at ₦2,167.92, compared with ₦1,544.78 in Bauchi. Abia recorded the highest average price for garri white (1 kg) at ₦1,071.37, while Bauchi had the lowest at ₦500.00. Edo State saw the highest average tomato (1 kg) price at ₦1,470.30, versus ₦694.68 in Kaduna. The observed price dynamics and interstate disparities point out the urgent need for coordinated policy interventions, particularly in addressing insecurity in key food-producing regions, which continues to disrupt agricultural output, supply chains, and rural livelihoods. Strengthening transport and logistics infrastructure, expanding storage and processing facilities, and improving farmers’ access to inputs and credit would reduce post-harvest losses and stabilise prices across regions and mitigate inflationary pressures, Output, supply chains, and rural livelihoods.

According to the Central Bank of Nigeria, Nigeria recorded a lower balance of payments surplus of US$2.67 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared with US$4.60 billion in the third quarter, indicating a moderation in external sector performance during the period. The current account balance also declined sharply to US$1.40 billion from US$4.06 billion in the Q3 2025, largely as a result of a weaker goods account balance, lower crude oil and refined petroleum exports, higher non-oil imports, and increased net outflows in the primary income account. The goods account balance fell to US$1.77 billion from US$4.53 billion, as crude oil exports declined to US$6.77 billion while non-oil imports rose to US$8.77 billion. At the same time, the secondary income account improved to US$6.21 billion, supported by an increase in workers’ remittances to US$5.72 billion, while the financial account recorded higher net borrowing of US$1.96 billion, driven mainly by increased portfolio investment liabilities of US$5.27 billion. Despite the weaker current account position, external reserves increased to US$45.75 billion at the end of December 2025, up from US$42.77 billion at the end of September 2025. Overall, the fourth quarter outcome highlights the continued vulnerability of the Nigerian economy to export volatility and rising import pressures. It also underscores the need to strengthen non-oil export performance, improve the resilience of the external sector, and sustain measures that support reserve accumulation and broader macroeconomic stability.

Nigeria's headline inflation rate over the twelve-month period under review shows
a steady decline in price pressures across the economy. Inflation stood at  27.6°k in January 2025, fluctuated lightly in the early months, and then began a consistent downward trend through the rest of the year. By the end of the final quarter of 2025, inflation  had  fallen to 19.0%  in October,  17.3%  in  November, and 15.1%  in December, before remaining at 15.1°kin January 2026. These changes represent a significant fall in headline inflation rate this year compared to the same period of last year. Overall, the  sustained decline suggests improving price stability in the economy, reflecting  slower  increases  in  the  average  price  level of  goods  and   services 
consumed my households.
 

According to the National Bureau of Statistics’ (NBS) Q4 2025 Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics, Nigeria’s total merchandise trade stood at ₦36,214.34 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, representing a decline of 1.07% from the ₦36,604.83 billion recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2024 and a decrease of 8.94% from ₦39,771.47 billion in the third quarter of 2025. This decline was driven largely by a fall in crude oil exports. Despite the decline in overall trade, the merchandise trade balance remained positive at ₦1,712.48 billion, indicating continued resilience in the external sector.During the quarter under review, total exports were valued at ₦18,963.41 billion, accounting for 52.36% of total merchandise trade, while imports amounted to ₦17,250.93 billion, representing 47.64% of total trade. Imports also increased by 3.98% from ₦16,590.51 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024 and by 1.73% from ₦16,957.90 billion in the third quarter of 2025. Crude oil remained the dominant export commodity, valued at ₦9,702.87 billion, and accounting for 51.17% of total exports. While the positive trade balance suggests some degree of external-sector strength, the decline in total merchandise trade underscores the economy’s continued vulnerability to fluctuations in global oil prices and domestic production levels. Moreover, the rise in imports alongside declining exports points to increasing demand for foreign goods relative to domestic output, a trend that could place further pressure on the trade balance over time. In light of these factors, policy should focus on strengthening non-oil export performance through improved domestic production capacity, higher competitiveness, and greater value addition. At the same time, efforts to support local industries and reduce import dependence will be essential for improving trade sustainability and strengthening the resilience of the economy.