StickMan Series

How SDG 4 (Quality Education) Intersects with other Sustainable Development Goals in Nigeria.

Let us imagine the pursuit of the Sustainable Development Goals metaphorically as a steeplechase – an obstacle-course if you will. Each of the 17 Goals is a different obstacle – a unique hurdle to cross before the race ends at the designated Year 2030 mark. This is a different type of race however – where the objective is not for one winner to emerge, but rather for every participant to clear every obstacle and make it to the end in time. Nonetheless, as it stands, Nigeria along with most of sub-Saharan Africa brings up the rear by a long margin. The Nigerian runner is bereft of shoes (symbolic of marked infrastructure-deficiencies), and is slowed even more by excessive weight (corruption and poor policy-implementation); and he is struggling to keep up. While the front-runners are well on their way, our runner – let’s call him Participant Nigeria – is in such bad shape that he is yet to gain significant traction on any single hurdle. He is challenged severely in the face of each one of them – Gender Equality, No Poverty, Clean Water and Sanitation, and the other 14. Participant Nigeria can use all the help he can get to finish this race, but his task is daunting – with each obstacle apparently more imposing than the next, the prospect of surmounting the collective in time is Herculean at best. For all the runners, and more so for the ones trailing behind, it would pay to approach the race holistically. It would help to recognize the race as more than merely a sum of disjointed barriers; but that rather, in streamlining effort, leverage is possible between the one barrier and the next. For instance, if the peak of two obstacle stand close by at similar heights, then instead of climbing the second obstacle from the bottom, a runner would simply cross the one peak to the other. This is synergy.

However, progress in one area can sometimes amount to regress in another, in this race. Sometimes obstacles are not situated close to one another, but are instead far apart and in opposite directions. In this unique, non-linear race, where two obstacles are thusly divergent, the runner in advancing towards one would be moving further away from the other. It is therefore often a toss-up, where the runner has to make the choice for that time of which obstacle to move toward, and by so doing, which obstacle he would be moving away from. These are trade-offs, and they are just as significant as synergies. In the real sense, this is how synergies and trade-offs between Sustainable Development Goals work.

The agenda of the Sustainable Development Goals is for no one to be left behind in the pursuit and attainment of wellbeing and prosperity globally by the year 2030. The Goals are integrated in their design, and this means that in recognizing that efforts in one area might impact those in another, a concerted balance is built throughout the Goals, in the design of targets across economic, social and environmental fronts. Contexts in different geographical regions and cultures however differ, and integration between Goals is not always immediately attainable. For instance, road construction through the Amazon Forests in Brazil while aligning wholly with SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure), driving SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), and complementing SDG 1 (No Poverty), SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-Being), and SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth); amounts to a massive trade-off with SDG 13 (Climate Action), in the diminishing of the Amazon Forests (the Forests are the “Lungs of the Planet” that produce 20% of the oxygen in its atmosphere, and a reduction in their size bodes ill for the Earth’s climate). In translating the Goals to specific environments therefore – in building policy and planning implementation around them – the determination of potential trade-offs and synergies between them is critical.

The fourth Sustainable Development Goal (SDG 4) – Quality Education – places significant focus on Least Developed Countries (LDCs), where poverty stretches the gaps in development and in learning outcomes. Nigeria is currently not on track to achieving SDG 4 – it has the highest number of out-of-school children globally, as well as very low output-levels in quality of education. In a study to ascertain the drivers to exclusion from quality education in Nigeria by the Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa, a tier of the assessment was a cross-referencing of SDG 4 with other Sustainable Development Goals to identify synergies and trade-offs. While education is integral to development on a whole, specific interactions were identified between SDG 4 and SDG 1 (No Poverty), SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-Being), SDG 5 (Gender Equality), SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth), SDG 13 (Climate Action) and SDG 16 (Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions), in the following ways:

SDG 1 (NO POVERTY)

The correlation was adjudged strong, where high levels of achievement in education expand access to meaningful livelihood opportunities, and thereby forestall poverty. Inversely, greater incomes enable better access to quality education.

SDG 3 (GOOD HEALTH AND WELL-BEING)

SDG 4 reinforces SDG 3, in that higher levels of attainment in education mean higher knowledge-levels for mothers regarding healthcare for their young; and infant mortality rates are lower as an outcome.

SDG 5 (GENDER EQUALITY)

Education is an imperative, if women are to understand and assert their rights, and assume full roles in society. Education is also necessary to the larger society in its appreciation of the place of the female within it.

SDG 8 (DECENT WORK AND ECONOMIC GROWTH)

Education drives entrepreneurship and economic activity on an individual level, and market competition and growth on the collective one.

SDG 13 (CLIMATE ACTION)

Quality education allows an understanding of the threats posed by our changing climate, and of what actions might mitigate them.

SDG 16 (PEACE, JUSTICE AND STRONG INSTITUTIONS)

Education engenders tolerance and civility, to build more cohesive and peaceful societies by.

The good news is that there were no trade-offs identified in the study. A broad implication of the productive interactions thus identified between SDG 4 and other Goals is that quality education is entirely beneficial to sustainable development in-country. If we are to cover ground in the SDG race, especially given Nigeria’s poor performance so far regarding Quality Education and other areas, a holistic approach toward policy design and implementation around the Goals is necessary, to direct outcomes towards what is intended in both the driving impact of education, and in the advancement of the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda on a whole; so we are not left behind.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      GO FURTHER…...read the full CSEA paper Is Nigeria on Track to Achieving Quality Education for All? Drivers and Implications

Conversations in the Courtyard.

It’s really quite beautiful this time of year in Gaya.

All of Kano State is truly picturesque – arguably more so than the rest of Northern Nigeria – but Gaya is especially charming….and quaint….and it is my hometown.

I enjoy spending time with Fatima – she’s my cousin and we are both fourteen. My parents don’t bring us back here to Gaya from Abuja Federal Capital Territory where we live very often, but whenever we do come, it’s quite a treat. Fatima’s lived here in the village her whole life; she’s never left, could you believe?! I always have many tales for her about city living when we visit, and she tells me stories about our village as well. I find a lot of her stories quite amazing – she once told me she has to walk 2 whole miles and back to the spring every day with her sisters, just so they can have water at home; I do so wish Daddy would let her come live with us, away from here.

Daddy and Uncle Musa – that’s Fatima’s daddy – are sitting on mats out in the courtyard; it’s really nice out there with the old shade-giving trees and the open spaces with the leaf-strewn brown earth. Mother is pacing behind them – she is trying to find reception for her iPad, and it doesn’t seem like she’s having any luck – rural areas! Fatima and I go and sit on the mat by our fathers. I am trying to teach her how to navigate mobile apps on my phone, and I’m not having a lot of luck either – this touch-screen technology is simply alien to her.

It appears Daddy and Uncle Musa are arguing.

“Shehu”, Uncle Musa sounds impatient speaking to Daddy.

“I have told you there is nothing wrong with the way I am raising my children. You may have different views, but that does not mean they are better. Don’t forget YOU were raised right here, in the exact same way.”

“Not quite”, Daddy says.

“I left the village for university, and I did it all on my own because I realized I could do so much better than here. I don’t mean to compare, but just look how differently our lives turned out Musa. I am a year younger than you are, but I have the much better life; and it’s only because I refused to follow the norm, and I pursued a Western education.”

Mother peeks over, she knows trouble is afoot. His brother’s far greater affluence was always a sore subject with Musa, and he especially disliked any comparisons of them both in that regard. My father is an Architect with a very lucrative practice you see, while my Uncle Musa is a farmer back here in the village, with limited education and a meagre livelihood.

“Well then, I suppose you believe yourself better than me because you have a university degree and I do not.”

Daddy appears to weigh his words at this point,

“That isn’t what I mean. I am only trying to say you owe your children the best life you can give them; and the best path is a good education. I am saying to look at both our lives to realize how much of a difference a good education can make.”

Mother quickly steps in; Daddy isn’t always the most pragmatic with words. She tries to cool things down a bit, sensing Uncle Musa is on the verge of responding quite angrily.

“Please pay my husband no mind Brother Musa, he is yet to learn how to talk in polite company. Speaking of your children, how are your daughters faring?”

Mother’s spoken Hausa is not very good, just like mine. We both understand the language nonetheless.

Daddy and Uncle Musa are both bemused now, but Uncle Musa has always liked Mother, in spite of his passive disapproval of her progressive lifestyle which is at odds with the far more conservative one he believes is expected of a woman.

He responds,

“My daughters are fine, thank you Aisha. By God’s grace Fatima will soon be wed, and I can only hope to have such luck with all my daughters. It’s a shame I have no sons.”

It’s Mother’s turn to be bemused,

“Do you really mean to marry Fatima off now? She is only a child.”

“Hajia...”

This is Uncle Musa’s manner of addressing Mother on occasion.

“Do not presume to tell me how to run my household. You too Shehu. It is every father’s pride for his daughter to be properly wed when she is the right age. At Fatima’s age, she may bear children, and therefore she may marry. If nature did not intend her for childbearing now, it would not have endowed her for it.”

Mother is speechless, she looks at Daddy for help.

“Musa”, Daddy begins,

“If you marry Fatima off now, she will have no real future. You condemn her to a life of servitude as solely a wife and mother...”

“As is her place”, Uncle Musa interrupts.

“We must never forget who we are. A woman’s place is as homemaker – she is mother and wife, nothing more. She is to be seen, not heard. She is to help build, and not be herself built. Why do you press me to throw money away that I barely have educating a girl – what gain is there in that? A Western education will serve her no purpose, and will keep her from finding a husband when she ought to. It will plant horrible ideas in her head of equality with men. Look at your wife for instance…”

My father starts, “Tread carefully Musa.”

“I shan’t, not anymore; not when you look for your blindness to spread to my home. Aisha thinks herself your equal, it is unspeakable. How do you expect me or anyone to think you a man, when you may not hold an opinion without her approval beforehand? You lost your way a long time ago Shehu, you with your big education and your bright and shiny ‘educated wife’. You have forgotten who you are. You may live out your folly, you and your household, but do not attempt to pull me and mine into it.”

Whenever Daddy gets really angry, he doesn’t speak. Mother told me once this was because he didn’t want to say or do the wrong things in his ire. She turns to Uncle Musa,

“Brother Musa, I respect your beliefs and your opinions as well, and I would not ever try diminish who you are with my own. My argument is in aid of my nieces – the world is far different place than what the sole perspective of a village such as this would have one believe it is. A woman may aspire to great personal success, and many have done; and it neither will remove from her femininity nor will it render her less desirable to or compatible with a man. Open your heart, and your mind Brother Musa. For love of your daughters, if for nothing else, consider the possibility of changing your stance. Shehu and I have discussed it, and we are willing to take all four of them back with us to Abuja, where we will raise them as our own and give them every opportunity to succeed. Their lives, and ultimately yours, will be much better for it I assure you.”

Uncle Musa responds slowly,

“My daughters will go to Islamic school as they have done; that is what is expected of me.  It is there that they learn all that they are required to. When the time is right, God-willing they will each marry well, and from then on no longer be my property, but the property of their husbands. This is as it has been, and as it always will be. I will speak no further on the subject”

I look at my father, his expression is a combination of annoyance and sadness – I know he wants the best for his brother and his daughters, but is frustrated at his stubbornness and unhappy about what the fate of those girls might be as an outcome of it.

I look at my mother, she too looks unhappy….miserable even. I see though that her eyes still hold a glint of hope, and that she very likely has not given up. I do hope she hasn’t.

I look at Fatima, and I can’t tell how she is feeling. I truly don’t know if she feels like she may just have missed out on a promising future. I can’t tell if a proper education and a career and financial security hold as much value for her as they do for me. Maybe they don’t; maybe her life here is all she knows, and really all she wants. I feel sad for her, knowing that her understanding of her opportunities is limited – that her conditioning has rooted her values in conforming to what is expected of her.

The grown-ups begin to retire indoors; Fatima and I remain outside. We aren’t speaking; I think we are both quietly contemplating what has just transpired. I look at the courtyard, and at the leaves falling from the trees and blown across the ground by the wind. It is quite peaceful here. The Sun sets in the horizon, painting a golden haze over the courtyard.

It’s really quite beautiful this time of year in Gaya.

RESEARCH BY THE CENTRE FOR STUDY OF THE ECONOMIES OF AFRICA INTO THE DIMENSIONS AND DRIVERS FOR EXCLUSION IN QUALITY EDUCATION IN NIGERIA FOUND POVERTY, GENDER AND LOCATION OF RESIDENCE (RURAL VERSUS URBAN) TO BE THE CLEAR CRITERIA FOR EXCLUSION.

GO FURTHER…...Download the full CSEA paper Is Nigeria on Track to Achieving Quality Education for All? Drivers and Implications

That old song and dance ‘smoking is bad for you’ is rather worn; we’ve heard it countless times before……nothing new there. What is unusual however is that in this deeply conservative Nigerian commune – one that collectively recognizes tobacco- smoking as entirely detrimental to physical health, and designates it a social vice – the local cigarette marketplace is, in sharp contrast, a thriving multimillion dollar one still. Baffling, wouldn’t you say? Petty-stores and kiosks all around us have different smoke brands in broad display, and cigarettes are sold freely and abundantly in marketplaces

and shops as well. There are no enforced restrictions to, or regulations over direct sale; even regarding customer age. What is more, the cheaper retail option of single stick purchase, over whole packs, is friendly to the not-so-deep pockets of the vast majority.

With no change effected......... and quickly, the bane of cigarette smoking will not be

going away anytime soon; even in spite of our better judgement on the subject.

The fine sampling of generic street-wise stoicism in the featured illustration is a typical retort to any reprimand of a tobacco-smoking habit toward the average Nigerian. In the reasoning of that school of thought, it is pointless to deny oneself of any of only a

sparse few pleasure available; even at the risk of premature death. Seen through this prism then, maybe the conundrum of the Nigeria tobacco- smoker presents a unique problem-angle…..in the sense that his tobacco-use is not merely recreational; but a somewhat necessary vice – offering a salve to his difficult existence. To the man unwinding with beer and cigarettes and the end of a tedious, sparsely rewarded work-day; the understanding is clear, of the health-risks. The problem is that the fear of early death does not

hold strong enough persuasion against a ‘much-needed’ indulgence in the present. In the stark bleakness of navigating existence for many a Nigerian, wholesome pleasures are rather few and far in between. Persuading these persons, therefore, to deny themselves any pleasures is easily Herculean. Even the dire caution, THE FEDERAL MINISTRY OF HEALTH WARNS THAT TOBACCO SMOKERS ARE LIABLE TO DIE YOUNG emblazoned boldly on the front of every cigarette packet holds little threat apparently. Targets of that warning do not appear to be taking much heed…….tobacco smoking numbers are not dwindling in the least.

VERY AFFORDABLE RETAIL OPTION OF SINGLE STICKS (Image from theguardian.com)A MAJOR REASON FOR WIDE ACCESS TO CIGARETTES IN NIGERIA IS THE

 

 

 

Let us take a look at in-country smoking statistics.

Nigeria currently has about 6 million smokers – representing a significant 5.6% smoking prevalence (the prevalence among Nigerian men is 10%, and 1.1% among women).

18% of youth between 13 to 15 years smoke. Tobacco related diseases account for about 17,500 deaths per year (about 207 men and 130 women every week), and about 250,000 cancer diagnoses as well. Economic losses in the form of medical treatments and loss of productivity from tobacco related diseases was estimated at US$591 million in 2015. Clearly, there is a problem.

Is there a way though, to change things around? It stands to reason that, if an individual cannot be persuaded to relinquish a habit detrimental to himself and others, he will have to be compelled to do so. A primary cause of the smoking problem is that cigarettes are very affordable yet. It is worth reviewing therefore, the option of raising cigarette prices beyond a point where the spending-capability of the average Nigerian can sustain this habit.

Here at The Centre for the Studies of African Economies, we adapted a model for study, to estimate the impact of a change in the excise tax structure and level on cigarette consumption, government revenue, smoking prevalence, Net Of Tax (NOT) revenue, and excise tax burden. Our simulation results lead us to believe that solutions are not as far-fetched as might have been believed.

In 2017, the average pack of cigarettes cost N183.50 in Nigeria. Excise tax is charged at only 20% ad valorem on Unit Cost of Production (UCA). Furthermore, imported cigarettes are excluded from excise tax; they are rather charged a 40% of CIF import levy, along with other smaller levies. A general Value Added Tax of 5% is applicable to both imported and domestically produced cigarettes. In the end, retail values of cigarettes in Nigeria are comparatively low.

We posit that as a remedy to the smoking problem, a tobacco tax policy that increases excise tax, and consequently the retail prices of cigarettes, would be effective.

We ran the Tobacco Excise Tax Simulation Model (TETSiM), which was adapted by our researchers to calibrate for the Nigerian context; to derive values. The effects on key measured outcomes of four possible policy interventions in Nigeria’s tobacco tax structure and level were calculated. In addition to Cigarette Consumption, outcomes were measured as well for Government Revenue (Excise Tax Revenue), Smoking Prevalence, Net-Of-Tax (NOT) Revenue, and Excise Tax Burden; with 4 different policy intervention models simulated, the last based on the 75% excise tax burden on retail price recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO).

The simulations showed that meaningful upward reviews of excise tax level on cigarette alongside a change to the specific tax system yield the most significant gains in public health (measured by increase in excise tax and other government revenues). The most favorable outcomes in magnitude and direction were recorded in the policy intervention simulations that substantially raised excise tax levels and applied the specific tax system.

The recommendation is therefore that – bypassing errors of the past – strong and consistent political will is critical to enforcing tobacco control policies, to continually increase excise tax burden up to the WHO benchmark of 75% of the retail price. Effective tobacco control tax policy will require that the tax system is changed from ad valorem to specific tax system. This requires that tax-administration and revenue-collecting agencies are adequately empowered. Our results empirically suggest that directing every effort to the tax burden increase goal will meaningfully push down tobacco consumption figures, and rapidly.

The time to act is now, to quench this fire....... for the collective good.

GO FURTHER……read the full CSEA paper – The Economics of Tobacco Control in Nigeria: Modeling the Fiscal and Health Effects of a Tobacco Excise Tax Change in Nigeria.

It used to be that in Nigeria, a baby’s first words would almost certainly be ‘mommy’……..or ‘dada’ in the very least. Now, you’re lucky if the first thing your infant ever says isn’t ‘Up NEPA!’. That is how much worse the electrical power situation has become from, say, when baby-boomers were children. Nigerian millennials have been born into a reality where uninterrupted electrical power is the exclusive preserve of the filthy rich – and basically unheard of otherwise. This sustained electrical power-supply quandary derives from a characteristic lack in both infrastructure management and policy enforcement; both situations inherent to a culture of deficient political will in matters of public welfare – in a county that has struggled unsuccessfully for decades to find a balance in governance. The Nigerian government held absolute monopoly of power generation, transmission and distribution from the very start, you see. The numbers have been abysmal – even though Nigeria has utilized electricity for over a century, in the nineties about half of a population of well over a hundred million had no access to it. In the noughties (in 2009), the country was rated by the World Bank as operating the most inefficient electrification system globally. In spite of its vast superiority in human population figures to a host of other African countries, Nigeria generates far less electrical power than they do; and has consistently fallen well short of accommodating the demands of a rapidly and continually expanding population. A SADLY COMMON SCENE IN NIGERIA – CHILDREN DOING HOMEWORK BY CANDLELIGHT IN LAGOS (IMAGE FROM newdiplomatng.com)         Furthermore, the local power industry has traditionally bled huge commercial and collection losses – in 2009 for instance it was estimated that only about 50% of power used was paid for by consumers. With democracy emerging after numerous years of high-handed military rule, the notion was engaged to open up the electricity generation, transmission and distribution processes to private-sector participation; to chase down much needed improvements in those areas. The Electrical Power Sector Reform Act (EPSRA) was passed in 2005 to this end, and eventually by the end of 2014 the government had succeeded in completely transferring electrical power generation and distribution to the private sector; while it retained ownership of transmission – which it manages through the Canadian company Manitoba Hydro International. This was at a time Nigeria was yet grossly underperforming in the sector – delivering a remarkably low 143.7kWh (estimated) of electricity per capita, compared to the Sub-Saharan Africa average of 496.8kWh per capita. Precious little has changed since. Despite interventions extended by the Federal Government to generation and distribution companies – as well as varied interventions and input from other sources – power access hovers around a meager 40% at present. Generation and distribution operators have characteristically had to navigate a myriad of dire challenges to match delivery expectations. In 2016 for instance, only 25.2% of generation company invoices were serviced. Financial constraints and losses, dearth of functional operational hardware, mismanagement, and bureaucratic bottlenecks all align into a perfect storm of hinderance to efficient electrical power delivery in today’s Nigeria; stunting economic development on a whole – manufacturers for instance necessarily generate large amounts of electricity independently, at steep costs. Amidst all these one is wont to ask, are there possibly workable, sustainable and immediate solutions to the situation? Well……in point of fact, there are. We at The Centre for the Studies of African Economies (CSEA) have methodically identified and assembled the definitive list of strategies to quickly and effectively solve the power problem; and here they are: PRICING AND ALLOCATION REFORM FOR NATURAL GAS Seeing as about 80% percent of electricity generation is from natural gas, it follows then that revising regulatory frameworks regarding gas transmission and distribution operations, as well pricing; in what manner to optimally streamline those processes is imperative. REGULATING THE MARKET Challenges encountered beyond the privatization of the electricity sector provide ample insight for fashioning built-to-fit regulation of current market operations; channeling effort for maximum yield. RESTRUCTURING PRICING AND TARIFF The unsustainable low-pricing model for electricity retail, at the expense of profit, diminishes the investment-appeal of industry operators; stumping the market consequently. An appropriate pricing structure would realistically factor running costs, and thus render generation and distribution companies more viable. MINI-GRIDS Off-grid and mini-grid initiatives and regulations are timely and essential – to attract investors discouraged by stringent participation-stipulations around the national grid; as well as to service remote locations inaccessible to it. ALLAYING CONCERNS REGARDING PAYMENT RISK Government institutions within the sector will have to project greater reliability by differentiating between legitimate potential-investor demands and unwarranted requests for government guarantees and undertakings; as well as assure equitable risk-sharing across the entire value chain. COMPLETE TRANSPARENCY IN PROJECT DEVELOPMENT, PROCUREMENT AND CONTRACTING Public-funding will be offered more readily when transactions are conducted with the utmost transparency and integrity. FINANCING Facilities sourced from local institutions are unfeasibly expensive, when available. Necessary intervention to improving access to finance will boost investment. Alternative investment avenues, such as pension funds, also fit nicely into the longevity of amortization of investment characteristic of the electrical power sector. CONSUMER CONSCIENTIOUSNESS Consumer best practices such as energy conservation and timely payment of charges, as well as ceasing power theft and infrastructure vandalism all translate to more available electricity overall. In the end, the phrase ‘Up PHCN!’ (regardless of the popularity still of the old one, the moniker is indeed different now) should hold new meaning – it should become an expression of appreciation for consistency, rather than of thankfulness for brief respite after prolonged darkness. …..And there was light! GO FURTHER……read the full CSEA paper – ELECTRIFICATION IN NIGERA: CHALLENGES AND WAY FORWARD