Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

According to Nigeria’s Domestic and Foreign Debt Q2 2026 report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s public debt stock reached ₦166.79 trillion (US$120.93 billion), up from ₦159.35 trillion (US$114.95 billion) in Q1 2026, representing a quarter-on-quarter growth of 4.67%. Total external debt stood at ₦75.20 trillion, while total domestic debt was ₦91.59 trillion. Furthermore, domestic debt accounted for 54.91% of total public debt, compared with 45.09% for external debt. At the state level, Lagos recorded the highest domestic debt in Q2 2026 at ₦1.20 trillion, followed by Delta (₦369.30 billion), while Jigawa (₦1.04 billion) had the lowest, followed by Ondo (₦6.16 billion).

According to official auction notices from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) for September 29, 2026, the apex bank launched a ₦2.5 trillion Open Market Operations (OMO) auction across three tenors to sterilise a ₦2.433 trillion OMO repayment maturing on 29 September 2026. This near one-for-one liquidity match occurred against a backdrop of mounting system liquidity, with commercial bank placements at the Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) expanding by 6.4% in four days to reach ₦6.278 trillion. Meanwhile, strong demand across maturities helped long-term stop rates cool to 17.29%, down from 18.99%. These matched OMO auctions help prevent excess bank reserves from pressuring the foreign exchange market or driving consumer price inflation after the MPC reset its benchmark rate to 23 %. Extending OMO maturities into mid-2027 anchors short-term money market rates and commits excess liquidity over an extended horizon.

According to the NMDPRA August 2026 Factsheet, the Dangote Refinery recorded an average capacity utilisation of 105.21%, producing 41.94 million litres per day (ML/D) of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), alongside substantial volumes of diesel and aviation fuel. Average domestic PMS consumption stood at 41.5 ML/D, below the 50.0 ML/D benchmark, while national PMS stock sufficiency was 22.9 days, below the required 30-day strategic threshold. In contrast, Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) had a 51.6-day stock surplus, while Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) consumption increased to 4.8 Kilotonnes per day (KT/D), despite a 17.2-day stock deficit. Nationwide gas processing averaged 8.258 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) across 47 plants, representing 51.02% capacity utilisation, with 0.633 Bcf/d supplied for power generation. The increase in domestic refining capacity and the substantial diesel stock buffer represent progress towards greater domestic fuel supply and stability. However, the PMS and LPG stock deficits remain important vulnerabilities, particularly because both products are critical to household and economic activity. The relatively low utilisation of gas-processing capacity also suggests scope to increase domestic gas availability, including for power generation. 

According to the National Bureau of Statistics' (NBS) report, Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased slightly to 15.39% in August 2026, from 15.43% in July 2026. On a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate in August 2026 was 0.71%, down from 1.57% in July 2026, which is a notable deceleration of 0.86 percentage points. Food inflation stood at 19.57% year[1]on-year in August 2026, compared with 25.30% recorded in August 2025. In the month under review, the highest year-on[1]year All-Items inflation rates were recorded in Lagos (23.68%), Zamfara (22.56%), and Enugu (22.06%), while Sokoto (2.11%), Kebbi (3.72%), and Jigawa (3.81%) recorded the lowest rates. Overall, the decline in inflation indicates that, although the general price level in the economy may have continued to rise, the pace of increase has slowed. While the price of goods and services did not necessarily fall, the moderation in the rate of price increases may result in greater price stability if the momentum is sustained. A sustained deceleration in inflation can foster a more conducive environment for investment, savings, and long-term economic decision-making. However, sustaining the downward inflation trajectory to realise these benefits require addressing structural supply-side bottlenecks that continue to drive cost pressures, particularly in food production and energy costs. This can be achieved through targeted investments in agricultural productivity, rural infrastructure, and reliable, affordable power supply.

According to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) August 2026 Business Expectations Survey (BES) report, business confidence strengthened significantly, with the Business Confidence Index (BCI) rising to 14.8 points from 5.7 index points in July. The improvement was broad-based, with confidence increasing in industry (17.1 from 11.5), agriculture (13.9 from 3.4) and services (13.3 from 3.6). Respondents identified increased demand (25.9%), economic diversification (18.3%) and monetary policy (14.2%) as the main drivers of improved sentiment. Confidence is expected to strengthen further, reaching 23.6 points in September, 30.1 in November and 36.1 by February 2027. Despite this positive outlook, high taxation (67.8 points), insecurity (66.9 points) and high interest rates (63.5 points) remain major constraints on business activity. These challenges could limit firms’ ability to translate stronger confidence and demand expectations into investment, production and employment. The government should therefore focus on converting improved sentiment into realised economic activity. First, fiscal authorities should harmonise business[1]related taxes across government levels and eliminate overlapping levies. Second, targeted credit-guarantee and risk[1]sharing schemes should be expanded to reduce financing constraints for productive firms, particularly SMEs. Third, security agencies should prioritise agricultural zones, industrial clusters and major transport corridors to minimise disruptions to production and trade. Finally, monetary and fiscal authorities should strengthen policy coordination and communication to improve the predictability of the business environment.