Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

According to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) August 2026 Business Expectations Survey (BES) report, business confidence strengthened significantly, with the Business Confidence Index (BCI) rising to 14.8 points from 5.7 index points in July. The improvement was broad-based, with confidence increasing in industry (17.1 from 11.5), agriculture (13.9 from 3.4) and services (13.3 from 3.6). Respondents identified increased demand (25.9%), economic diversification (18.3%) and monetary policy (14.2%) as the main drivers of improved sentiment. Confidence is expected to strengthen further, reaching 23.6 points in September, 30.1 in November and 36.1 by February 2027. Despite this positive outlook, high taxation (67.8 points), insecurity (66.9 points) and high interest rates (63.5 points) remain major constraints on business activity. These challenges could limit firms’ ability to translate stronger confidence and demand expectations into investment, production and employment. The government should therefore focus on converting improved sentiment into realised economic activity. First, fiscal authorities should harmonise business[1]related taxes across government levels and eliminate overlapping levies. Second, targeted credit-guarantee and risk[1]sharing schemes should be expanded to reduce financing constraints for productive firms, particularly SMEs. Third, security agencies should prioritise agricultural zones, industrial clusters and major transport corridors to minimise disruptions to production and trade. Finally, monetary and fiscal authorities should strengthen policy coordination and communication to improve the predictability of the business environment.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics' (NBS) Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics report for Q2 2026, Nigeria's total merchandise trade stood at ₦41.44 trillion in the second quarter of 2026, representing an increase of 5.61% from the ₦39.24 trillion recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2025 and a rise of 19.13% from ₦34.79 trillion in Q1 2026. This growth was driven by a surge in export earnings alongside continued compression in imports. During Q2 2026, total exports were valued at ₦27.02 trillion, accounting for 65.20% of total merchandise trade, while imports amounted to ₦14.42 trillion (34.80% of total trade), declining by 12.55% year-on-year from ₦16.49 trillion in Q2 2025. A notable development is that non[1]crude oil exports, valued at ₦14.11 trillion, exceeded crude oil exports of ₦12.91 trillion for the first time, with non-oil products contributing ₦3.72 trillion, or 13.80%, of total exports. While the improvement in the trade surplus and the rise in non-crude oil exports are encouraging, non-oil products still account for only 13.80% of total exports, and import dependence in manufactured goods remains deeply rooted. Policy efforts should therefore focus on strengthening non-oil export performance through improved value addition and domestic production capacity, while deepening backward integration in manufacturing and expanding incentives for agro-processing and solid minerals to build a more resilient external sector.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 4.43% year-on[1]year in the second quarter of 2026, up from 4.23% in the corresponding quarter of 2025. This growth was driven primarily by the services sector, which expanded by 4.60% and accounted for 56.62% of aggregate real GDP. The agricultural sector also recorded strong growth, growing by 4.39%, compared with 2.82% in the same quarter of the previous year. In the oil sector, real output increased by 7.31% year-on-year, supported by an increase in average daily crude oil production of 1.72 million barrels per day. In contrast, industrial growth declined to 3.96%, down from 7.46% in the second quarter of 2025, while the non[1]oil sector expanded by 4.31% in real terms. These figures demonstrate the resilience of the Nigerian economy, with growth largely driven by the services, agriculture, and oil sectors. However, the slowdown in industrial growth points to persistent structural and operational challenges that require policy attention to ensure balanced and sustainable economic development. Moreover, the non-oil sector's contribution of 95.84% to real GDP underscores its pivotal role as the principal driver of economic activity. To sustain this growth momentum, the government should implement targeted policies aimed at revitalising the manufacturing and broader industrial sectors. Increased investment in agricultural infrastructure, alongside improved security in farming communities, will be essential to consolidate recent gains in agricultural productivity. At the same time, maintaining stable crude oil production while fostering a conducive business environment for the services and non-oil sectors will be cri economic growth.

A press release from the Bank of Industry (BOI) on 17 August 2026 confirmed the successful debut in Nigeria’s domestic capital markets, with its ₦250 billion Series 1 Fixed Rate Bond oversubscribed. Issued through BOI Financing SPV Plc under the Bank’s US$1 billion Multi-Currency Instruments Programme, the transaction achieved robust price discovery, amid strong institutional investor appetite. BOI’s Managing Director/CEO highlighted that the outcome demonstrates the domestic market’s ability to support development financing at scale and described the investor response as a vote of confidence in both BOI and Nigeria’s capacity to mobilise long-term capital for productive investment. To sustain this momentum, BOI should prioritise the swift deployment of proceeds toward high-impact industrial projects with clearly defined metrics for job creation and value-chain development, while publishing quarterly disbursement and impact reports to maintain investor confidence. Concurrently, the Bank should deepen its engagement with domestic institutional investors including pension funds, insurers, and asset managers through targeted and structured product offerings. This approach will broaden the investor base, lower future funding costs for development finance, and establish a more durable foundation for mobilising domestic savings for long-term development initiatives.

According to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Nigeria exceeded its OPEC crude oil production quota of 1.5 million barrels per day (mbpd) for the third consecutive month in July 2026, producing 1.505 mbpd of crude oil and 0.17 mbpd of condensates, resulting in a combined output of 1.67 mbpd. However, total production declined by approximately 4% month-on-month, largely due to operational disruptions at the Erha and Akpo assets. Despite these setbacks, relatively stable operations at the Forcados, Bonny, Qua Iboe, Escravos and Bonga terminals indicate some degree of resilience within the wider oil-producing system. The ability to maintain production above the OPEC quota despite asset[1]specific disruptions is encouraging, particularly given the importance of crude oil production to government revenues, export earnings and foreign-exchange liquidity. However, the month-on-month decline also shows the vulnerability of aggregate production to disruptions at individual high-output assets. Sustaining the recent improvement therefore requires not only maintaining production at operational fields but also reducing unplanned downtime and accelerating the restoration of impaired capacity. The NUPRC and relevant industry stakeholders should strengthen proactive asset maintenance, production monitoring and rapid[1]addressing operational disruptions.