Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

Available data from NBS shows that Aviation sub-sector of the transport sector grew by o.15 percent in real terms in 2017Q2 down from 1.53 percent in 2017Q15. The decline is likely attributable to fall in year-on-year passenger and aircraft movement in the sub-sector, following increased air fare charges. 

Economic growth in Africas largest economies improved in the second quarter of 2017 (2017Q2) relative to the preceding quarter (2017 Q1), as Nigeria and South Africa exited recession. Specifically, GDP growth rate was 0.55 percent and 1.1 percent for Nigeria and South Africa in 2017Q2, compared to 0.91 percent and 0.7 percent in 2017Q2, respectively. The increased growth in Nigerias economy was driven by improved performance in the oil sector (increased crude oil price and production) which offset the decrease in non-oil sector growth, while South Africas emergence from recession is supported by growth in its agriculture sector complimented by growth in finance, real estate, business service, mining and quarrying sectors.

OPEC Monthly oil report reveals that Nigeria recorded the highest month-on-month increase in crude oil production among the OPEC member countries in August 2017. Specifically, at an increasing rate of 8 percent, domestic oil production rose to pre-2016 level of 1.86 million barrels per day in August 2017. With ongoing repairs in the sector, oil production could get to 2.2 million barrels per day in the near term, albeit the prior voluntary agreement to cap production at 1.8 million barrels per day. Going forward, there is need to address poor planning and policy inconsistencies in the sector, in order to ensure the influx of investors who have channeled their investments to other African countries due to laxity in policies in the sector.

Recently released GDP figures reveals that the three major sectors recorded positive and negative growth rates individually in 2017Q2. Firstly, Agricultural sector grew Year on Year by 3.01 percent, down from 3.39 percent in 2017Q1- driven by weaker output in crop production and Fishing sub-sectors. This is not unconnected with the planting season and the shortage of grainsfor livestock/fish respectively.

The global economy grew by 2.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016 (2016Q4) relative to 2.5 percent in 2016Q3, due to rising investment and consumption demands in developed and emerging economies as well as a rise in commodity prices. However, over the entire year, global GDP growth stood at 2.6 percent in 2016, relative to the growth of 3.09 percent recorded in 2015. Notably, output grew progressively in the US over the year, while the steady growth recorded in the UK since the start of the year stalled in 2016Q4. Also, the declining growth recorded in France since 2015 took a positive turn in 2016Q4, the rest of the Eurozone witnessed a fall in output in the quarter. While emerging economies recorded mixed experiences, many Sub-Saharan African countries showed signs of recovery in the period.