Nigerian Economic Update Issue 38

According to the NMDPRA August 2026 Factsheet, the Dangote Refinery recorded an average capacity utilisation of 105.21%, producing 41.94 million litres per day (ML/D) of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), alongside substantial volumes of diesel and aviation fuel. Average domestic PMS consumption stood at 41.5 ML/D, below the 50.0 ML/D benchmark, while national PMS stock sufficiency was 22.9 days, below the required 30-day strategic threshold. In contrast, Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) had a 51.6-day stock surplus, while Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) consumption increased to 4.8 Kilotonnes per day (KT/D), despite a 17.2-day stock deficit. Nationwide gas processing averaged 8.258 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) across 47 plants, representing 51.02% capacity utilisation, with 0.633 Bcf/d supplied for power generation. The increase in domestic refining capacity and the substantial diesel stock buffer represent progress towards greater domestic fuel supply and stability. However, the PMS and LPG stock deficits remain important vulnerabilities, particularly because both products are critical to household and economic activity. The relatively low utilisation of gas-processing capacity also suggests scope to increase domestic gas availability, including for power generation. 

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