Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

According to foreign exchange market data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the naira averaged ₦1,361.22 per US dollar in April 2026, representing a 1.3% month-on-month appreciation from ₦1,379.32 per US dollar recorded in March. This follows a period of depreciation linked to global geopolitical tensions, particularly the United States-Israeli/Iran war, which began at the end of February 2026. During that period, the naira weakened by 1.7%, falling from an average of ₦1,355.53 per US dollar in February to ₦1,379.32 per US dollar in March. The modest recovery in April coincided with a 1.7% decline in foreign reserves, from US $49.24 billion at the end of March to US $48.37 billion as of 29 April, suggesting that reserves may have been utilised to support the currency. While the recent exchange rate appreciation is a positive development, the sustainability of the naira’s strength will depend on consistent foreign exchange inflows and favourable macroeconomic conditions. To consolidate these gains, policymakers should prioritise measures aimed at strengthening foreign exchange supplies, particularly by enhancing export capacity and attracting stable capital inflows. This will require targeted investments in export-enabling infrastructure, including roads, ports, and storage facilities, alongside sustained support for domestic manufacturing. In addition, maintaining transparency in foreign exchange market operations and ensuring timely access to foreign currency will be critical to strengthening investor confidence and promoting market stability.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in their Global Outlook report for April has revised Nigeria’s 2026 real GDP growth forecast downward to 4.1 percent, from 4.4 percent in its January outlook, reflecting rising input costs, particularly fuel, fertiliser, and shipping, which are weighing on non-oil sector activity. This moderation comes despite some offset from stronger oil prices. The growth path shows relative stability, with output estimated at 4.0 percent in 2025 and projected at 4.1 percent in 2026 and 4.3 percent in 2027. Inflation, while expected to ease, remains elevated, estimated at 23.0 percent in 2025, then declining to 16.0 percent in 2026 and 15.9 percent in 2027. External balances appear positive, with the current account surplus estimated at 5.1 percent of GDP in 2025, rising to 5.8 percent in 2026 before moderating to 3.1 percent in 2027. These revisions reflect a more complex global environment shaped by ongoing geopolitical conflicts, including the Iran crisis, the Russia-Ukraine War, and the Israel-Hamas War, which continue to disrupt energy markets, global supply chains, and shipping routes. For Nigeria, the situation translates into higher imported inflation and cost pressures for production and distribution, particularly in the non-oil sectors. While higher oil prices provide some fiscal and external relief due to higher revenue for government, the asymmetry between oil gains and broader cost pressures limits the transmission of growth, reinforcing structural weaknesses and dampening domestic demand. Policy response should prioritise protecting the domestic economy from external shocks while improving supply-side efficiency. This includes scaling up investments in energy infrastructure, transport logistics, and local input production to reduce import dependence and drive the growth of Nigeria’s productive sector.

According to recent data from the Debt Management Office (DMO), Nigeria’s total public debt stood at ₦159.28 trillion in December 2025, up from ₦153.29 trillion in September 2025, representing a quarterly increase of ₦5.99 trillion (3.90%). A year-on-year comparison shows that total public debt rose by ₦14.61 trillion from ₦144.67 trillion in December 2024, representing a 10.10 percent rise over the period. A breakdown of the debt stock in December 2025 indicates that external debt amounted to ₦74.43 trillion, accounting for 46.73 percent of total public debt. Of this amount, the Federal Government held ₦66.27 trillion, while the States and the Federal Capital Territory accounted for ₦8.16 trillion. Domestic debt was higher at ₦84.85 trillion, representing 53.27 percent of the total, with the Federal Government responsible for ₦80.49 trillion and the States and the FCT for ₦4.36 trillion. This structure highlights the continued dominance of domestic borrowing and the significantly larger debt burden borne by the Federal Government relative to subnational governments. It also demonstrates a sustained reliance on borrowing to meet financing needs, with domestic instruments remaining the primary source of funding. To manage rising debt exposure, fiscal policy should prioritise enhanced non-oil revenue mobilisation to reduce dependence on borrowing, improve expenditure efficiency to contain recurrent spending pressures, and gradually increase reliance on concessional external financing to moderate debt servicing costs.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Company Income Tax (CIT) collections stood at ₦1.49 trillion in Q4 2025, reflecting a significant quarter-on-quarter decline of 49.81 percent from ₦2.96 trillion recorded in Q3 2025. Domestic CIT accounted for ₦819.83 billion, while foreign CIT contributed ₦668.21 billion in the quarter under review. Despite the quarterly drop, collections grew by 13.38 percent year-on-year, indicating some underlying resilience. Sectoral performance was mixed, with activities of extraterritorial organisations and bodies, education, and real estate activities recording the strongest growth, while accommodation and food service activities, activities of households as employers, and mining experienced sharp contractions. Financial and insurance activities, manufacturing, and mining and quarrying remained the least contributors to CIT. The sharp quarter-on-quarter decline suggests fluctuations in corporate earnings and possible timing effects in tax remittances, particularly from key sectors such as mining and manufacturing. The divergence between strong year-on-year growth and weak quarter-on-quarter performance indicates that while overall economic activity may be improving, it remains uneven and susceptible to sector-specific shocks. The concentration of tax contributions in a few sectors also highlights structural imbalances in the tax base. Policy efforts should focus on broadening the Corporate Income Tax (CIT) base by enhancing compliance across underperforming sectors and reducing reliance on a narrow set of industries. Strengthening tax administration, improving transparency in remittance processes, and supporting sectoral diversification, particularly in non-extractive industries, is critical. Furthermore, stabilising the macroeconomic environment to support business profitability can help ensure more consistent and sustainable tax revenues over time. Most business activities in Nigeria are also largely informal; hence, they are difficult to tax. Thus, efforts should be geared towards the formalisation of businesses to enable their inclusion into the tax net, but such measures will be more effective if these businesses are able to hold the government accountable.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics’ (NBS) Selected Food Price Watch report for February 2026, the average price of brown beans (1 kg) stood at ₦1,307.44, reflecting a 46.98 percent year-on- year (YoY) decline from ₦2,465.96 in February 2025 but a 3.57 percent month-on-month (MoM) rise from January 2026. Similarly, the price of locally produced rice (1 kg) averaged ₦1,858.93 in the month under review, an 11.01 percent YoY drop from ₦2,088.82, though it increased 0.93 percent MoM from ₦1,841.83 in January. The price of garri (white, 1 kg sold loose) averaged ₦790.62, down 38.10 percent YoY but up 2.42 percent from January 2026. Likewise, the average prices of tomatoes (1 kg, sold loose) fell 3.03 percent YoY to ₦1,077.43 yet rose 5.15 percent MoM. Similarly, the average price of small white crayfish (1 kg) surged 36.41 percent YoY to ₦8,785.16, while also increasing 1.44 percent MoM. Across states, Oyo recorded the highest average price for brown beans (1 kg) at ₦1,924.61, while Taraba had the lowest at ₦700.00. Kogi reported the highest average price for locally produced rice (1 kg) at ₦2,167.92, compared with ₦1,544.78 in Bauchi. Abia recorded the highest average price for garri white (1 kg) at ₦1,071.37, while Bauchi had the lowest at ₦500.00. Edo State saw the highest average tomato (1 kg) price at ₦1,470.30, versus ₦694.68 in Kaduna. The observed price dynamics and interstate disparities point out the urgent need for coordinated policy interventions, particularly in addressing insecurity in key food-producing regions, which continues to disrupt agricultural output, supply chains, and rural livelihoods. Strengthening transport and logistics infrastructure, expanding storage and processing facilities, and improving farmers’ access to inputs and credit would reduce post-harvest losses and stabilise prices across regions and mitigate inflationary pressures, Output, supply chains, and rural livelihoods.