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The recent report on Nigeria’s Public Debt Stock for the first quarter of 2018 indicates a 4.5 percent Quarter-over-Quarter increase, from N21.7 trillion in Q4 2017 to N22.7 trillion¹, and a Year-on-Year increase of 18.5 percent from N19.2 trillion². The ratio of domestic debt to external debt is put at 70:30, a reduction in domestic debt from the previous share of 73 percent, and an increase of external debt share from 27 percent – a reflection of the need for caution in external borrowings

Agricultural sector exports increased at a remarkable pace in 2017. Total earnings from agricultural export goods grew by 181 percent to N170.4 billion¹, compared to the N60.7 billion earned in 2016. The remarkable improvements in exports and export earnings reflect improvements in agricultural production and supply, at the backdrop of the provision of farm mechanization services² and a likely boost in harvest periods during the year under review

Economic or trade unions all have something in common; to form a sizable market that can position its member states in a vantage standpoint needed to influence trade negotiations or expand the economic prosperity of its people through joint policy.  Economic unions or blocs are not necessarily formed to increase population size, promote consumerism or extend geographical space. They aim at enhancing market efficiency, promoting healthy competition, attracting foreign direct investment, expanding trade, promoting the economic interest of member states.

Instituted through the Lagos Treaty on the 28^th of May 1975, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) now has 15 members, occupies a geographical area of about 5,114,162 km² and market size of over 350 million people. With a combined GDP of approximately US$716.7 billion, ECOWAS possesses the required tools to improve West Africa economy. Forty-three (43) years down the line, some successes have been recorded, but yet the pace of influence and development have been slow. But we strongly believe that ECOWAS could be a catalytic entity for the emancipation of West Africa countries in the committee of Nations.

Custom, Manufacturing Capacity and Trade

Although within a trade bloc, the joint promotion of the regional welfare is emphasized, yet the member states with strong producing capacity tend to recoup most benefit.  While this is so, it could promote intense competition among member states thereby ensuring surplus output, varieties of good and services, and reduced prices for consumers. The ultimate result of these chains of actions will be expanded exports and foreign exchange inflow for member states. In 2016, the combined export value of ECOWAS was about US$101.4 billion, far below the export value of individual countries such as Turkey ($157.3 billion), Malaysia ($188.2billion) and some hosts.

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ECOWAS, 2016

While, it would have been expected that the member states trade more with each other, but the intra-trade trend shows that ECOWAS members trade less with each other, recording a yearly average of US$ 12.9 billion worth of goods and services from 2011 to 2016. There still exist some levels of barriers in trading with each other, an indication that the Economic/Trade Union did not result to Customs Union.  In addition to these, ECOWAS export to the outside world has been unstable and tumbling downward at a geometric pace, losing an average of US $10.5 billion every year and about the US $ 55.4 billion every two years. Examining the bloc’ s trade partners shows that about 83.7 percent of ECOWAS exports are to Europe and the Americas, about 16 percent en route to Asia and Oceania, with only 0.3% to the Middle East. The export composition still reflects the dominance of primary goods with little or no value addition.  All these are signals that the manufacturing capacity of the ECOWAS states are still lagging behind and the bloc needs a workable export strategy to create the needed prosperity and jobs among its member.

The Prosperity Joystick

ECOWAS states are not yet fully integrated economically. The bloc needs to focus more on economic integration through the following:

• Capital and Talent mobility: Despite the attainment of the ECOWAS passport, the inability to implement a vibrant custom and immigration union has been hampering free mobility among member states. The borders of member states are heavily armed with tank and armoury such that people and goods spending hours for documentation and It should be noted that without joint policing across the border, the free flow may not be fully achieved. This can be improved upon.
• Monetary integration: The existence of money brings in liquidity and easy flow of trade. With the US dollar as a third party currency, the full actualization of stress-free trade among members may not be completely achieved. But, the introduction of ECOWAS currency will necessitate joint monetary coordination and harmonization of macroeconomic policy among members.
• Friendly Investment Policy and Joint Trade Strategy: ECOWAS could facilitate FDI into West Africa and can support member states with research-based trade strategy, for instance, on the need to expand trade to the Middle-East region. This should also be considered for quick implementation" alt="" width="700" height="416" />

Morocco could be the Game Changer

The willingness of Morroco to join the union despite its geographical located in the North shows the presence of a pull “incentive-like” factor in ECOWAS not fully explored by the old members; the large market, massive labour or trade advantage. The country formally belongs to the Arab Maghreb Union (UAM) but has disagreements with the bloc, especially Algeria. In the past decade, Morocco trade with ECOWAS member states had grown up to US$ 1 billion in 2016. Nigeria, Côte d’Ivoire, Senegal, and Mauritania happen to be the biggest importers of Morocco goods such as foodstuffs, machinery and chemical goods. With a strong domestic manufacturing base, Morocco stands the chance of replacing some part of ECOWAS importations from Europe and Americas, while addressing its wider current account and trade deficit, in addition to improving its unstable economic growth. As the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) continues to oppose the admission of Morocco into ECOWAS, such moves will not add to Nigeria’s productive capacity. Even as Morocco’s admittance will promote competitiveness, Nigeria will, therefore, need to reform its productive base to able to enjoy the benefit of the membership of any trade bloc it belongs to now or in the future.

In conclusion, as the economic pie grows big, everyone stands will have a bigger share. As the productive capacity of member states increases and trade activities with each other expands, more business opportunities will spring up, jobs and income in the region will increase. With the growing population in West Africa, this is partly what the ECOWAS needs to tame the Africa-Europe migration/refugee challenges and as well as achieve the sustainable development goals (SDGs).

Recently released demographic figures by the NBS shows an upward progression in population and its composition. Specifically, Nigeria’s population reached 193 million in 2016, growing at an annual average of 3.25 percent¹. Going by the demographic characteristics, the population pyramid reveals that over 41 percent of the population lies between ages 0-14 – a composition of children and adolescents. This implies that fertility rate has been high, as such, a corresponding high dependency ratio. The growing share of this population age imposes supply pressure on available infrastructural amenities; from education to health systems. Similarly, the growing youth population (16-30 years) exerts pressure on the labor market, given their working-class ages

As expected, the Monetary Policy Committee left the policy interest rate (MPR) and other parameters unchanged. At 14 percent, the MPR has been left unchanged for the 10^th consecutive period¹; likewise the CRR at 22.5 percent, Liquidity Ratio at 30.0 percent; and Asymmetric corridor at +200 and -500 basis points around the MPR. All except one member of the MPC agreed to keep rates on hold, mainly in anticipation of a more precise direction of key macroeconomic indicators, including the passage and implementation of the 2018 budget. Complementary factors considered for the hold also points to the current moderation in inflation rate towards single digit, as well as higher reserve levels

Fundraising remains a challenge for most organizations, and the need to explore innovative ways to remain sustainable and competitive is becoming imperative. In this digital age, organizations are continuously exploring innovative approaches to fundraising to remain relevant in an increasingly dynamic landscape. Nonprofits are no exemption from this pressure, as they continue to face multiple sustainability challenges. As non-profits engaged in the production and dissemination of ideas to inform policies think tanks are currently facing serious existential challenges which require innovative solutions. The challenges faced by think tanks come from both the demand-side and the supply-side of the market for ideas.

The need for an innovative strategy was prompted by the reality faced by CSEA: as a beneficiary of the 10-year Think-Thank Initiative grant, which ends in 2019, it is imperative for the Centre to reflect on its fundraising experience and creatively design a fundraising approach that can ensure its financial sustainability beyond 2019. While the Centre places emphasis on the production of high-quality research, and on building a sustainable relationship with other policy stakeholders, a well-defined resource mobilization, and fundraising strategy is required to provide guidance towards approaching targeted and potential funders.

Recently released GDP report for the first quarter of 2018 shows a stronger growth in GDP, relative to the corresponding quarter of 2017. Driven particularly by growth in the Oil sector, Real GDP grew by 1.95 percent (Year-on-Year) in 2018Q1¹. In terms of sectoral growth, oil sector rose remarkably to 14.77 percent, a 30.37 percent increase from 2017Q1. Non-oil sector grew by 0.76 percent (Year on Year), slightly up from 0.8 percent- this marginal increase was driven mainly by Agriculture (Crop production), in addition to Manufacturing, Financial institutions and insurance, Transportation and Storage, and Information and Communication

Capital imported into Nigeria, maintained an upward trajectory in 2018Q1, following three consecutive quarterly increase. Specifically, capital importation rose to $6.30 billion in 2018Q1¹- a remarkable Year-on-Year growth of 594 percent (from $908.27 million), and Quarter-over-Quarter increase of 17 percent ($5.38 billion). Inferably, investors’ interest and confidence in the Nigerian economy have continued to soar since 2017Q2; this is particularly represented by the extent of portfolio investment flows which increased approximately fifteen times more than the $313.61 million recorded in the corresponding 2017Q1 quarter, and accounted for 72.4 percent of total capital importation in the review quarter

Nigeria confronts a prolonged period of adjustment. For more than a generation, the oil sector generated large volumes of foreign exchange. However, with the recent bust in global oil prices and the resumed restiveness in the oil rich Niger-Delta region since 2014, Nigeria was thrust into macroeconomic crisis. Nearly four years on, we argue that policymakers effectively responded to the dual shocks mainly through import compression. However, the scope for continued import compression is now distinctly limited. For Nigeria to grow and prosper, the long-discussed diversification of the export base must occur via rapid expansion of non-oil exports.