Publications

Despite the disparity in unemployment rates across gender, race and provinces, no study has captured the influence of military spending on unemployment rates among these groups in South Africa (SA). Thus, this study investigated the effects of military spending on total, gender, racial and provincial unemployment in SA over 2008Q1 to 2023Q4. The study applied Autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL), Dynamic ARDL and Kernel-based Regularized Least Squares (KRLS), to predict the counterfactual shocks of unemployment rates based on a ±1 % change in military spending. From the ARDL, a rise in military spending reduced total, male, female, black race, and Gauteng, Eastern Cape, Mpumalanga Kwazulu Natal and Northwest provinces’ unemployment rates, in the short- and long run, but increased it among the Coloured, White and the Indian/Asian races and the Western Cape, Northern Cape and Free State provinces, in the short and long run. The DARDL simulation and the KRLS showed that a 1 % decrease (increase) in military spending increased (reduced) total, male, female, Black and North West, Gauteng, Eastern Cape, Mpumalanga, KwaZulu Natal and Limpopo unemployment rates in the short run before flattening in the long run. Conversely, a 1 % decrease (increase) in military spending reduced (increased) the unemployment rates in the Coloured, White and Indian/Asian Races, Western Cape, Northern Cape and Free State Provinces, in the short run while flattening it in the long run. The effect of military spending in SA are not homogeneous among the Races and Provinces. Therefore, government policies aimed at curbing unemployment should recognise the peculiarities of the races and provinces.

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The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), in its 300th meeting held on the 19th and 20th of May 2025, resolved to retain the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 27.50%, maintain the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) of Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) at 50%, and retain the Liquidity Ratio at 30%. This tight monetary stance was adopted to combat inflation and stabilise the economy. Members of the committee noted that rising inflation was driven by high electricity prices and persistent pressure from foreign exchange demand. They also expressed concerns about the recent decline in crude oil prices, attributed to increased production by non-OPEC member countries. The current MPR marks the committee’s second consecutive hold since January 2025. While the elevated MPR and CRR help curb demand-side inflation by reducing excess liquidity in the financial system, inflation in Nigeria remains largely supply-driven. As such, monetary tightening alone may not be sufficient. Furthermore, with a CRR of 50%, domestic banks are required to keep a significant portion of their funds with the CBN, limiting banks’ lending. Therefore, emphasis should not be on monetary policies alone but should be complemented by fiscal policy. This includes investments in energy infrastructure to increase electricity supply, which in turn would lower firms' spending on alternative energy use. In addition, the government should strengthen the development bank to scale targeted lending for micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises to bolster production, which in turn would curb inflation. 

The Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report for April 2025 revealed that composite PMI stood at 52.2 index points, marking the fifth consecutive month of economic expansion, signalling sustained positive momentum in the Nigerian economy. The industry sector (51.8 index points) recorded expansion for the fourth consecutive month, driven by increased outputs. Similarly, the services sector index, at 51.8 index points, signalled an expansion of economic activities in the month under review, which is attributable to increases in the number of incoming businesses. Most importantly, the agriculture sector led by 53.8 index points, extending its expansion streak to nine months, with increases in new orders fuelling the identified expansion in the month under review. Composite output (53.2 points), new orders (53.2 points), and employment level (50.7 points) also recorded growth in the month under review. This overall expansion sets a positive tone for Q2 2025. Despite these gains, the report reveals ongoing pressure on business profit margin as input costs continue to outpace output prices. To moderate input costs and ensure that economic expansion is sustained, there is a need to extend grants, tax reliefs, and other incentives to input manufacturing firms in Nigeria.

The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) weekly market report for the final week of April 2025 (Monday–Friday) closed with a marginal improvement, as the NGX All-Share Index (ASI) rose by 0.27% to 106,042.57 points, while market capitalisation increased by 0.28% to ₦66.65 trillion. This modest uptick signals a cautious return by investors following a persistent decline since March, largely triggered by profit-taking and macroeconomic uncertainties. However, beneath the headline gains, sectoral performance remained broadly negative. Major indices such as NGX Banking (-0.38%), Insurance ( 2.89%), AFR Bank Value (-0.04%), MERI Value ( 2.08%), Oil & Gas (-2.90%), Lotus II (-0.01%), Sovereign Bond (-0.19%), and Commodity (-1.12%) all recorded losses. These declines reflect continued investor concerns over inflationary pressures, restrictive monetary policies, and weak earnings expectations across key sectors. The marginal recovery in the ASI was supported by selective interest in fundamentally strong stocks; yet, persistent underperformance across core segments highlights the fragility of overall market sentiment. To build long-term resilience, policymakers and capital market stakeholders must prioritise restoring investor confidence through consistent macroeconomic policies, transparent regulations, and targeted, market friendly reforms. Curbing inflation, stabilising the naira, and enhancing sectoral competitiveness are critical to sustaining capital inflows and driving a more inclusive market rebound.

Effectiveness of Accelerated Education and Girls-Focused Education Innovations in Nigeria

Education is critical to individual and societal advancement, yet it faces severe challenges in West Africa, particularly in Northern Nigeria due to conflict and violence. A significant impact of these disruptions is the growth in the numbers of Out-of-School Children and Youth (OOSCY), driven by complex and multiple reasons including ethnic and religious divides. Young women and girls’ life trajectories are particularly affected, resulting in unequal access to education, work, and participation in society. These inequalities are further worsened by internal migration and displacement, which results in deepened vulnerability such as intergenerational poverty and teenage motherhood (Hanmer et al., 2024). Insurgency and terrorism in Nigeria, with the insecurity and fear it engenders, has left approximately 19.7 million children out of school, disproportionately affecting girls from impoverished and rural backgrounds (Oyekan et al., 2023). These conditions highlight the challenge of maintaining formal education institutions and ensuring the safety of learners and teachers in Fragile, Conflict and Violence (FCV) affected areas.

The global trade ecosystem is undergoing a profound transformation characterised by rising protectionism, disruption, and strategic realignment of global supply chains, as well as the weakening of multilateral institutions. Central to this policy shift is the resurgence of the United States “America First” trade policy advanced by the current U.S. administration. The April 2nd announcement by President Donald Trump saw every single country assigned a new, higher tariff rate, as every product imported into the U.S. will be charged an extra 10% tariff. While most of the U.S. trading partners will pay 10% tariffs, most countries were assigned even higher “reciprocal” rates. However, a dramatic change of policy occurred when the U.S. administration announced that countries that had not retaliated against the tariff would receive a reprieve and only face a blanket U.S. tariff of 10% until July 2025. These measures intensify Trump’s “America First” trade policy and signal a decisive shift toward deeper protectionism, reshoring, and economic nationalism

According to the National Bureau of Statistics’ Consumer Price Index report for March 2025, Headline inflation rate rose to 24.23%, marking a 1.05 percentage point increase from the 23.18% recorded in February 2025. The report also showed that food inflation stood at 21.79% for the month under review, reflecting a 1.72 percentage point drop from the 23.51% recorded in the previous month. By state profile, food inflation was highest in Oyo State at 34.41%, followed by Kaduna at 31.14%, and Kebbi at 30.85%. Conversely, states such as Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, and Sokoto recorded the slowest rises in food inflation at 12.81%, 14.02%, and 14.83%, respectively. The high food inflation can be attributed to increases in the cost of complementary food staples such as garri, potatoes, and honey. Additionally, the depreciation of the naira and fluctuating exchange rates have raised the cost of imported food and agricultural products. This, coupled with escalating farmer-herder conflicts and banditry, has led to widespread farmland abandonment, particularly in the Middle Belt and Northwest regions. As inflationary pressures continue to rise, increased food prices will have dire consequences, especially for low-income households, which allocate a larger share of their income to food. Reduced purchasing power is also expected to worsen malnutrition, as high prices push families to substitute nutritious foods with cheaper, less healthy alternatives. Therefore, the government must strengthen security in agricultural zones, ensure safe farming areas in affected states, provide subsidised inputs and access to mechanised tools for smallholder farmers, and rebuild rural agricultural infrastructure

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) April Monthly Oil Market Report reveals that Nigeria’s average daily crude oil production (based on direct communication) declined by 4.37% (64,000 bpd), from 1.465 million bpd recorded in the preceding month to 1.401 million bpd in March. The report also shows that oil production fell by 6.6% below OPEC's 1.5 million bpd quota and a staggering 32% short of the country’s 2025 target of 2.06 million bpd. Persistent shortfalls in meeting government production targets stem from systemic challenges such as chronic underinvestment and rampant oil theft, all contributing to suppressed output. The decline in oil production and the falling oil prices in the international market are likely to strain fiscal revenues, exacerbating budgetary pressures. This will detrimentally impact national reserves, thereby reducing the availability of resources for developmental spending. While the government has no control over global oil prices, it can, to some extent, meet its OPEC production quota. Therefore, the government must intensify efforts by enforcing stricter penalties for oil theft, while fostering greater collaboration with local communities. Simultaneously, there is a need to attract investment in the sector by ensuring that regulatory bodies and the judiciary work together to provide an enabling environment for investment and modernisation of oil infrastructure

According to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Nigeria recorded a Balance of Payments (BoP) surplus of $6.83 billion in 2024, reversing deficits of $3.34 billion in 2023 and $3.32 billion in 2022. This marks a significant improvement attributed to macroeconomic reforms, improved trade, and rising investor confidence. The current and capital account posted a surplus of $17.22 billion, driven by a goods trade surplus of $13.17 billion. Petroleum imports declined by 23.2% to $14.06 billion, while non-oil imports fell by 12.6% to $25.74 billion. On the export side, gas exports increased by 48.3% to $8.66 billion, and non-oil exports rose by 24.6% to $7.46 billion. The financial account reported gains, with a net financial asset acquisition of $12.12 billion. Portfolio investments more than doubled to $13.35 billion, and resident foreign currency holdings increased by $5.41 billion. However, foreign direct investment (FDI) fell by 42.3% to $1.08 billion. It is expected that a BoP surplus will result in a stronger currency and bigger foreign reserves, allowing for more investment and economic growth. To attain the rewards associated with the BoP surplus, the government must continue to modernise the economy and maintain stable forex policies to attract long-term capital and decrease external vulnerabilities.