Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

The National Bureau of Statistics’ (NBS) Foreign Trade in Goods report for Q2 2025 revealed a trade surplus, due in part to rising exports of petroleum products. Nigeria’s total merchandise trade was ₦38.04 trillion, a 20.05% year-on-year rise from the ₦31.68 trillion recorded in Q2 2024. The trade balance stood positive at ₦7.46 trillion, up by 44.31% from the previous quarter. Total imports were valued at ₦15.29 trillion, a 9.43% increase from Q2 2024 but slightly down 0.90% from Q1 2025 at ₦15.43 trillion. China remained the largest import partner, followed by the USA and India. Key imports included motor spirit ordinary, petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals crude, durum wheat, machines for reception, conversion, and transmission of voice, images, or data, and gas oil. Agricultural imports rose by 32.60% compared to Q2 2024. Exports totalled ₦22.75 trillion, an increase of 28.43% from Q2 2024 and 10.45% from Q1 2025, driven by crude oil exports valued at ₦11.97 trillion (52.6% of total exports), other petroleum gases in a gaseous state, natural gas, other liquefied petroleum gases, other gaseous hydrocarbons, and kerosene-type jet fuel. Top export partners were Spain, India, France, the Netherlands, and Canada. Agricultural exports climbed 29.03% from Q2 2024 but were down 26.28% quarter-on-quarter. While the positive trade balance reflects stronger petroleum exports, Nigeria should diversify its export base by strengthening non-oil and agricultural value chains. This will reduce reliance on crude oil, mitigate against external shocks, and sustain long-term trade growth. 

According to the National Bureau of Statistics’ (NBS) Premium Motor Spirit (Petrol) Price Watch for July 2025, the average retail price of petrol increased by 33.02% year-on-year, rising to ₦1,024.99 compared to ₦770.54 in the same period last year. However, the report also showed a 1.22% month-on-month decline in petrol prices when compared to June 2025. Despite this marginal decline, the figures reveal the continued strain that rising petrol prices place on Nigerians, particularly evident in increased transportation costs and the inflationary ripple effects they have on goods and services. A closer look at state-level data revealed stark disparities, as Jigawa State recorded the highest retail price of petrol at ₦1,107.52, followed by Lagos (₦1,100.29) and Sokoto (₦1,100), each significantly higher than the national average. Conversely, Zamfara, Yobe, and Kogi States had the lowest average retail prices for petrol at N884.63, N950.60, and N986.67, respectively. These figures highlight the uneven nature of fuel pricing across states, reflecting structural inefficiencies in supply chains, distribution, and market regulation. To cushion the effects of rising petrol prices on households and businesses, the government should prioritise domestic refining capacity, streamline fuel distribution systems, and invest in transport infrastructure. These measures would help reduce logistics costs, stabilise prices, and ease the broader inflationary pressure. 

The Exchange Rates data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) revealed that the Naira appreciated to ₦1,500.92 per US Dollar in the official market on September 10, 2025. This marked the highest appreciation of the Naira since March 5, 2025 (approximately 6 months ago), when it stood at ₦1,500.8 per US Dollar. This appreciation coincides with a rapid increase in Nigeria’s foreign reserves, which surged to a 44-month high of $41 billion on August 19, 2025. Since that date up until September 9, 2025, the country’s reserves have increased by 1.5% (approximately $0.6 billion). The continued growth in reserves is a clear indicator of enhanced economic stability and has played a significant role in the recent appreciation of the local currency. To achieve greater stability for the Naira, there is a need to boost foreign reserves by increasing both oil and non-oil receipts, as well as reducing the country’s overdependence on imports. Increasing oil receipts requires critical investments in infrastructure and effective measures to curb oil theft and vandalism. On the other hand, boosting non-oil receipts depends on strong export promotion strategies, such as providing tax incentives for exporters, improving key infrastructure (ports, electricity, and transportation), and digitising trade processes to enhance efficiency

The growth in the Nigerian private sector continued to gain momentum, although at a slow pace. The August index was above the 50.0 benchmark, recording a 0.2 point increase from the value recorded for the month of July and pointing to a solid strengthening of business conditions. This occurred as a result of improved demand, reduced inflationary pressures and an increase in firm output. 

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) July 2025 Monthly Oil Market report showed a 3.58% increase in Nigeria’s average daily crude oil production, rising from 1.453 million barrels per day (bpd) in May to 1.505 million bpd in June, based on direct communication data. Despite this improvement, Nigeria’s output remains significantly below its ambitious 2025 target of 2.06 million bpd, falliing short by nearly 27%. This gap shows ongoing systemic challenges undermining the country’s oil sector, including underinvestment and oil theft, which continue to suppress production capacity. Although the Nigerian government does not influence oil price fluctuations, as they are determined in the global market, it retains some control over domestic production levels. Hence, to scale up oil production, the government must strengthen enforcement against oil theft by imposing stricter penalties, improving security, and fostering enhanced collaboration with affected local communities. Furthermore, attracting new investment requires a more stable macroeconomic environment, which can be achieved through numerous measures, including stable exchange rate management. These measures can boost investments, facilitate the modernisation of Nigeria's oil infrastructure, improve operational efficiency, and help the country realise its full production potential in the oil sector.