Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

Nigeria's GDP growth in 2025 shows a clear upward trend, rising from 3.13% in Ql to 4.23% in Q2, before moderating to 3.98% in Q3, which is 0.12 percentage points higher than Q3 2024.This sustained growth was driven mainly by the non-oil sector, which accounted for over 96% of real output, with sector wide gains in agriculture, industry, and services. This growth rate aligns IMF's October 2025 upward revision of Nigeria's GDP growth forecast to 3.9% in 2025 and 4.2°k in 2026, supported by improved oil production, stronger investor confidence, and a more supportive fiscal stance. However, persistent inflation and structural bottlenecks in the power, transport and security sectors highlight the need for diversification into manufacturing, agriculture and digital services, alongside macroeconomic and regulatory reforms to sustain economic recovery.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) disbursed a total of ₦2.93 trillion to the three tiers of government in November 2025 from the total revenue generated in October 2025. This comprised ₦2.16 trillion from the Statutory Account, ₦49.87 billion from Electronic Money Transfer Levy (EMTL), and ₦719.83 billion from Value Added Tax (VAT). Of the total allocation, the federal government received ₦758.41 billion, state governments ₦689.12 billion, and local governments ₦505.80 billion, while ₦141.39 billion was distributed to oil-producing states from the 13% derivation fund. These allocations reveal that effective revenue mobilisation and timely disbursement are essential for sustaining public service delivery. However, boosting internal revenue mobilisation is very crucial at the subnational level to reduce dependence on FAAC, as most states are largely dependent on FAAC. Thus, there is a need to create an enabling environment for businesses in states to attract investment, which will translate to more tax revenue mobilised at the state and local government levels. To consolidate the current gains in revenue mobilisation, policymakers should strengthen revenue collection efficiency through the digitalisation of tax processes, enhance transparency, and expand non-oil revenue sources. Ensuring there is improved fiscal planning will help stabilise both national and subnational finances, which will support development initiatives across the federation.

Data from the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM), published by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), showed that the naira appreciated by 7.4% in 2025. 

In November 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics reported a gradual easing of annual price pressures alongside continued short-term increases in consumer prices. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 130.5, up from 128.9 in October, indicating a sustained increase in the general price level of goods and services purchased by households. Nonetheless, headline inflation moderated to 14.45%, down from 16.05% in the preceding month, reflecting a slowdown in year-on-year inflation. Compared with November 2024, headline inflation was 20.15%, a significant improvement largely driven by base effects following the rebasing of the CPI. Despite this moderation in annual terms, month-on-month inflation increased to 1.22% from 0.93% in October, signalling that underlying inflationary pressures persist. This suggests that households continue to experience rising costs in the short term, particularly for essential goods and services, even as broader inflation indicators show signs of improvement. The divergence between easing year-on-year inflation and rising month-on-month inflation highlights the need for continued policy vigilance. While inflationary conditions have improved relative to the previous year, achieving durable price stability will require addressing structural constraints such as food supply disruptions, energy costs, and distribution inefficiencies, alongside sustained macroeconomic discipline.

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) November Monthly Oil Market report indicated that Nigeria’s average daily crude oil production (based on direct communication) for October 2025 increased by 0.8% (11,000 bpd), rising from 1.390 million barrels per day in September to 1.401 million bpd in October 2025. Despite this modest increase, production remained 6.6% below Nigeria’s OPEC quota of 1.5 million bpd and 31.9% below its target of 2.06 million bpd. These gaps indicate that Nigeria continues to face challenges in fully restoring crude oil production, despite recent investments and government-led efforts in the upstream sector. Falling short of its OPEC quota puts pressure on foreign exchange earnings, given that the sales of crude oil remain the country’s primary revenue source. However, the slight increase in output indicates a cautious yet promising recovery, which could enhance fiscal conditions if the momentum is sustained. To build on this progress, Nigeria should focus on repairing and upgrading critical oil infrastructure, securing production sites against vandalism and oil theft, and attracting consistent investment to boost output and move closer to its production targets. ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT + Quarterly Indicators