Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

The October 2025 report from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) indicated that Nigeria's oil production declined by 0.045 million barrels per day (bpd), falling from 1.434 million bpd in August 2025 to 1.39 million bpd in September 2025. This represents a 3.1% decline and marks the second consecutive month of reduced output, bringing the average third-quarter production to 1.444 million bpd – down 2.5% from 1.481 million bpd in the second quarter. The production level is 7.3% below Nigeria’s OPEC quota of 1.5 million bpd and 33.8% below the national target of 2.1 million bpd. This consecutive decline in output is particularly concerning, given the nation's reliance on crude oil as its primary source of revenue.According to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), a three-day strike by the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) contributed to the decline in oil production in September. To mitigate the risks associated with fluctuating oil revenues, policymakers should prioritise reforms that enhance alternative revenue sources, including the effective implementation of the tax reform bill.Restoring and efficiently operating local refineries will increase revenue and strengthen economic resilience. Furthermore, diversifying the economy away from oil by investing in sectors such as technology, mining, and agriculture, supported by loan incentives and capacity building for MSMEs in these sectors, will promote sustainable growth.

The World Bank’s Africa’s Pulse report on pathways to job creation in Africa (October 2025) indicated that Nigeria ranks highest among countries facing significant employment challenges. The report noted that only one in six workers in Sub-Saharan Africa holds a wage-paying job, compared to one in two in highincome countries. Despite a projected increase of over 620 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa’s labour force between 2025 and 2050, a 1 percentage point rise in GDP growth yields only a 0.04 percentage point increase in wage employment. The data also revealed that 98 million Nigerians experience employment challenges, a figure significantly higher than the 72 million recorded for the Democratic Republic of Congo, 67 million for Ethiopia, and 40 million for Tanzania. High levels of underemployment and informality persist in Nigeria, driven by limited firm/business growth, reliance on selfemployment, and weak labour bargaining power. The report emphasised that Africa’s growth trajectory remains positive but insufficiently inclusive. To leverage Nigeria’s growing youth population, government policies must prioritise productivity-enhancing investments in education and skills development, strengthen infrastructure and access to finance, and translate firm growth into sustainable employment opportunities to ensure that economic expansion benefits a broader segment of the population. 

The International Monetary Fund's October 2025 World Economic Outlook revised Nigeria's growth forecast upward to 3.9% in 2025 and 4.2% in 2026, an increase of 0.5 and 1.0 percentage points from earlier projections. The improved revision occured as a result of higher oil production, stronger investor confidence, and a supportive fiscal stance. 

The October 2025 Nigeria Development Update (NDU) report from the World Bank revealed that, between 2019 and 2023, average consumption decreased by 6.7%, particularly in urban areas. The report also indicated that the percentage of Nigerians unable to meet healthy caloric requirements, even if they spent their entire income on food, rose from 14% to 27% between 2019 and 2023, equivalent to 139 million Nigerians living in ultra-poverty in 2023.The World Bank report indicated that while the reforms (mainly exchange rate unification and subsidy removal) are addressing previous policy errors, significant improvements in living conditions will depend on sustained disinflation, more robust inclusive growth, enhanced public services, and consistent targeted assistance for the most vulnerable. The report also emphasised that macroeconomic reforms need to continue advancing to strengthen stability and protect against risks, given that the economic outlook remains vulnerable to both external and domestic risks. Thus, policymakers’ priority should include the transparent expansion of social protection programs to protect vulnerable households and the efficient implementation of the tax reform policies to lessen the tax burden, potentially boosting employment. Also, the informal economy should be supported through targeted credit schemes and steady and affordable energy.  

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that Nigeria’s public debt stock, which includes external and domestic debt, stood at ₦149.38 trillion in the first quarter of 2025, indicating a growth of 3.27% quarter-onquarter from ₦144.66 trillion in Q4 2024. Total external debt stood at ₦70.63 trillion, while total domestic debt stood at ₦78.75 trillion in Q1 2025. The share of domestic debt to total public debt recorded the highest percentage, standing at 52.72%, while external debt accounted for 47.28% of total public debt in Q1 2025. State-wise, Lagos State recorded the highest domestic debt at ₦874.03 billion, followed by Rivers with ₦364.39 billion. Meanwhile, Jigawa and Ondo states recorded the lowest domestic debt stocks at ₦1.06 billion and ₦11.76 billion, respectively. The increase in debt stock occurred as a result of the depreciation of the Naira, which inflated the values of local currency borrowing and new borrowings from the federal government, intended for funding public expenditure. Rising debt stock implies increasing debt servicing costs, which strain government finances, especially as Nigeria makes efforts to stabilise the Naira and improve foreign exchange liquidity. Furthermore, while heavy reliance on domestic borrowing may reduce external vulnerability, it can crowd out private investments and push up domestic interest rates. Therefore, there is a need for the government to enhance debt management frameworks and control borrowing at both the federal and state levels. Furthermore, borrowings should be channelled toward growth-enhancing and revenue-generating projects, especially in productive sectors such as energy and manufacturing.