Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

The Central Bank of Nigeria's (CBN) Business Expectations Survey report for August 2025 reflects optimism regarding the macroeconomic outlook. The Confidence Index increased to 28.9 index points in August 2025 from 21.4 index points in July 2025. All sectors expressed positive expectations for the business outlook, with Services leading at 29.7 index points, Industry at 28.5 index points, and Agriculture at 27.1 index points. This optimistic trend is expected to continue over the next six months, with Industry projected to rise to 59.9 index points, Agriculture to 52.8 index points, and Services to 55.1 index points. This, therefore, reflects growing business confidence in the Nigerian economy. The Business Confidence Index (BCI) further highlights this positive sentiment, with Mining & Quarrying leading at 21.1 index points, followed by Agriculture at 17.5 index points, Non-Market Services at 16.8 index points, Market Services at 16.7 index points, Manufacturing at 8.5 index points, and Construction at 2.0 index points. These figures indicate strong confidence across sectors in the economy. However, despite the positive momentum, respondents identified the top three business constraints in the month under review, including Insecurity (71.2%), Insufficient Power Supply (69.5%), and High Interest Rates (68.6%), highlighting factors that continue to affect operational stability and profitability. To maintain positive business confidence, the government should focus on targeted policies that address the key operational challenges, improve business conditions, and create a more supportive environment for investment and growth. Addressing insecurity is crucial, as well as driving investment in energy infrastructure to provide affordable and steady electricity to firms 

Nigeria's economy maintained its upward growth trajectory in the second quarter of 2025, expanding by 4.23% year-on-year compared to 3.48% in the same period of 2024. The improved performance followed the GDP rebasing, using 2019 as the base year reflecting stronger activity across key sectors. The industry and services sectors recorded notable growth of 7.45% and 3.94%, respectively, while agriculture grew modestly by 2.82%. 

According to the National Bureau of Statistics’ GDP Report for Q2 2025, Nigeria’s real GDP grew by 4.23% year-on-year, higher than the 3.48% recorded in Q2 2024 and above the 3.13% reported after the rebasing in Q1 2025. Aggregate nominal GDP stood at ₦100.73 trillion, up by 19.23% from ₦84.48 trillion in the same quarter of 2024. In the quarter under review, the oil sector recorded strong growth of 20.46%, a sharp rebound from 1.87% in Q1 2025 and higher than the 10.08% in Q2 2024, supported by increased crude oil production at 1.68 million barrels per day. Similarly, the non-oil sector grew by 3.64% in real terms, driven by agriculture, telecommunications, real estate, finance, trade, and construction. Growth in the agricultural sector stood at 2.82%, an improvement from the 2.60% recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2024. Furthermore, growth in the industrial sector reached 7.45% in Q2 2025, up from 3.72% in Q2 2024, contributing 17.31% to aggregate GDP compared to 16.79% in the same quarter of 2024. The services sector also recorded growth of 3.94%, compared to 3.83% in Q2 2024. This improved performance occurred largely due to stronger oil output and resilient non-oil activity. However, it also implies that while the non-oil sector has shown resilience, the oil sector’s rebound remains vulnerable to disruptions in global oil prices. Furthermore, the 2.82% growth in agriculture remains below the sector’s potential, with negative implications for food security, employment, and inflation management. Therefore, there is a need for the government to invest more in local agricultural production, focusing on mechanisation and improved access to finance for smallholder farmers and the provision of improved seedlings and technical support, among others.

The National Bureau of Statistics’ (NBS) Foreign Trade in Goods report for Q2 2025 revealed a trade surplus, due in part to rising exports of petroleum products. Nigeria’s total merchandise trade was ₦38.04 trillion, a 20.05% year-on-year rise from the ₦31.68 trillion recorded in Q2 2024. The trade balance stood positive at ₦7.46 trillion, up by 44.31% from the previous quarter. Total imports were valued at ₦15.29 trillion, a 9.43% increase from Q2 2024 but slightly down 0.90% from Q1 2025 at ₦15.43 trillion. China remained the largest import partner, followed by the USA and India. Key imports included motor spirit ordinary, petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals crude, durum wheat, machines for reception, conversion, and transmission of voice, images, or data, and gas oil. Agricultural imports rose by 32.60% compared to Q2 2024. Exports totalled ₦22.75 trillion, an increase of 28.43% from Q2 2024 and 10.45% from Q1 2025, driven by crude oil exports valued at ₦11.97 trillion (52.6% of total exports), other petroleum gases in a gaseous state, natural gas, other liquefied petroleum gases, other gaseous hydrocarbons, and kerosene-type jet fuel. Top export partners were Spain, India, France, the Netherlands, and Canada. Agricultural exports climbed 29.03% from Q2 2024 but were down 26.28% quarter-on-quarter. While the positive trade balance reflects stronger petroleum exports, Nigeria should diversify its export base by strengthening non-oil and agricultural value chains. This will reduce reliance on crude oil, mitigate against external shocks, and sustain long-term trade growth. 

According to the National Bureau of Statistics’ (NBS) Premium Motor Spirit (Petrol) Price Watch for July 2025, the average retail price of petrol increased by 33.02% year-on-year, rising to ₦1,024.99 compared to ₦770.54 in the same period last year. However, the report also showed a 1.22% month-on-month decline in petrol prices when compared to June 2025. Despite this marginal decline, the figures reveal the continued strain that rising petrol prices place on Nigerians, particularly evident in increased transportation costs and the inflationary ripple effects they have on goods and services. A closer look at state-level data revealed stark disparities, as Jigawa State recorded the highest retail price of petrol at ₦1,107.52, followed by Lagos (₦1,100.29) and Sokoto (₦1,100), each significantly higher than the national average. Conversely, Zamfara, Yobe, and Kogi States had the lowest average retail prices for petrol at N884.63, N950.60, and N986.67, respectively. These figures highlight the uneven nature of fuel pricing across states, reflecting structural inefficiencies in supply chains, distribution, and market regulation. To cushion the effects of rising petrol prices on households and businesses, the government should prioritise domestic refining capacity, streamline fuel distribution systems, and invest in transport infrastructure. These measures would help reduce logistics costs, stabilise prices, and ease the broader inflationary pressure.