Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) weekly report for January 16, 2026, showed that the NGX All-Share Index (ASI) rose by 2.36%, closing at 166,129.50 points, while market capitalisation increased by 2.48% to ₦106.354 trillion. The gain signifies strong market activity and increased participation in equities and exchange-traded products. Furthermore, investors traded a total of 4.607 billion shares, valued at ₦130.636 billion, across 263,439 deals in the week under review, up from 4.164 billion shares worth ₦94.026 billion in 248,254 deals recorded in the preceding week. The financial services sector led the activity chart, accounting for 3.126 billion shares valued at ₦47.2 billion across 94,186 deals, contributing 67.8% to the total equity turnover volume and 36.2% to the total equity turnover value. The services sector followed with 353.4 million shares worth ₦5.1 billion in 17,764 deals, while the ICT sector came third with 277.3 million shares valued at ₦18.0 billion across 28,525 deals. The rise in equities indicates that investors are regaining confidence in the market, likely driven by expectations of stable economic conditions and strong corporate earnings. To build on the positive market momentum, policymakers should ensure well communicated monetary and fiscal policies, enhance transparency in corporate reporting, and strengthen investor protection measures. Proactive steps in these areas will help sustain market confidence, encourage broader participation, and attract long-term capital to the equity market. 

Nigeria's GDP growth in 2025 shows a clear upward trend, rising from 3.13% in Ql to 4.23% in Q2, before moderating to 3.98% in Q3, which is 0.12 percentage points higher than Q3 2024.This sustained growth was driven mainly by the non-oil sector, which accounted for over 96% of real output, with sector wide gains in agriculture, industry, and services. This growth rate aligns IMF's October 2025 upward revision of Nigeria's GDP growth forecast to 3.9% in 2025 and 4.2°k in 2026, supported by improved oil production, stronger investor confidence, and a more supportive fiscal stance. However, persistent inflation and structural bottlenecks in the power, transport and security sectors highlight the need for diversification into manufacturing, agriculture and digital services, alongside macroeconomic and regulatory reforms to sustain economic recovery.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) disbursed a total of ₦2.93 trillion to the three tiers of government in November 2025 from the total revenue generated in October 2025. This comprised ₦2.16 trillion from the Statutory Account, ₦49.87 billion from Electronic Money Transfer Levy (EMTL), and ₦719.83 billion from Value Added Tax (VAT). Of the total allocation, the federal government received ₦758.41 billion, state governments ₦689.12 billion, and local governments ₦505.80 billion, while ₦141.39 billion was distributed to oil-producing states from the 13% derivation fund. These allocations reveal that effective revenue mobilisation and timely disbursement are essential for sustaining public service delivery. However, boosting internal revenue mobilisation is very crucial at the subnational level to reduce dependence on FAAC, as most states are largely dependent on FAAC. Thus, there is a need to create an enabling environment for businesses in states to attract investment, which will translate to more tax revenue mobilised at the state and local government levels. To consolidate the current gains in revenue mobilisation, policymakers should strengthen revenue collection efficiency through the digitalisation of tax processes, enhance transparency, and expand non-oil revenue sources. Ensuring there is improved fiscal planning will help stabilise both national and subnational finances, which will support development initiatives across the federation.

Data from the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM), published by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), showed that the naira appreciated by 7.4% in 2025. 

In November 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics reported a gradual easing of annual price pressures alongside continued short-term increases in consumer prices. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 130.5, up from 128.9 in October, indicating a sustained increase in the general price level of goods and services purchased by households. Nonetheless, headline inflation moderated to 14.45%, down from 16.05% in the preceding month, reflecting a slowdown in year-on-year inflation. Compared with November 2024, headline inflation was 20.15%, a significant improvement largely driven by base effects following the rebasing of the CPI. Despite this moderation in annual terms, month-on-month inflation increased to 1.22% from 0.93% in October, signalling that underlying inflationary pressures persist. This suggests that households continue to experience rising costs in the short term, particularly for essential goods and services, even as broader inflation indicators show signs of improvement. The divergence between easing year-on-year inflation and rising month-on-month inflation highlights the need for continued policy vigilance. While inflationary conditions have improved relative to the previous year, achieving durable price stability will require addressing structural constraints such as food supply disruptions, energy costs, and distribution inefficiencies, alongside sustained macroeconomic discipline.