Nigeria Economic Update, Issue 4

According to data gathered from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the price of Nigeria’s crude oil rose to US$75.03 per barrel on 29 January 2026, reaching the highest level since 30 September 2025. Prices gained over $4 per barrel, representing an approximate 5% increase, as Brent and other benchmarks extended gains for a third consecutive session. The surge was driven largely by rising fears over possible supply disruptions from the Middle East, particularly along strategic routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. The price spike has significant implications for Nigeria’s economy, given its reliance on oil revenues. Higher crude prices could bolster government revenue and foreign exchange inflows, strengthen reserve buffers, and provide fiscal space for public expenditure. However, ongoing geopolitical risks may also introduce volatility, affecting market stability and planning for oil-dependent sectors, which increases the need for diversification of the economy. From a policy perspective, maintaining prudent fiscal and reserve management is essential to maximise benefits from the rally while mitigating risks from potential price swings. Monitoring global oil markets and adjusting production and export strategies will be key to optimising gains.

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