Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

According to the National Bureau of Statistics' (NBS) Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) report, the average price of PMS, commonly known as petrol, stood at ₦1,027.76 in May 2025. This represents a 17.07% decrease from the ₦1,239.33 month-on-month (MoM) in April 2025 but remains 33.54% higher than the ₦769.62 year-on-year (YoY) recorded in May 2024, indicating continued pressure on consumers. At the state level, Sokoto recorded the highest average price at N1,100.50, followed by Zamfara at ₦1,093.21 and Anambra at ₦1,084.13. Meanwhile, Yobe (₦950.60), Rivers (₦981.67), and Taraba (₦983.00) had the lowest average prices. Furthermore, zonal analysis showed that the Southeast recorded the highest average price at ₦1,049.15, while the North Central zone had the lowest at ₦1,005.42. Although the month-on-month decline may suggest some relief, petrol prices remain significantly high compared to the previous year, posing a sustained burden on transportation costs, business operations, and household spending. To address this, the government should prioritise expanding domestic refining capacity and reducing distribution costs to bring long-term stability to fuel prices. At the same time, supporting affordable public transport and ensuring consistent fuel supply across regions can help ease immediate pressure on households and businesses. 

The National Bureau of Statistics' (NBS) Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) Price Watch report for May 2025 revealed that the average retail price for refilling a 5kg Cylinder of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (Cooking Gas) rose month-on-month by 3.57%, climbing from ₦7,885.60 in April 2025 to ₦8,167.43 in May 2025. Compared to the same period last year, the price surged by 10.10%, up from ₦7,418.45 in May 2024. A closer look at the state-level average price for refilling a 5kg cylinder of LPG highlights notable disparities, as Abia recorded the highest average price at ₦9,181.20, closely followed by Ebonyi and Rivers states, with prices of ₦9,177.32 and ₦9,174.40, respectively. Conversely, Oyo state offered the most affordable price at ₦7,116.49, with Niger and Plateau states also among the lower-priced states at ₦7,142.07 and ₦7,177.10, respectively. When analysed by geopolitical zones, the South-South zone recorded the highest average retail price (₦8,760.51), followed by the South-East at ₦8,724.70. The North-Central zone reported the lowest average price at ₦7,759.38. Rising LPG prices add to the cost-of-living crisis, which can further deteriorate the welfare of citizens. Hence, there is a need to make LPG more affordable for Nigerian households. To do this, the government needs to invest in domestic refining and natural gas processing to reduce reliance on imports, which helps stabilise prices

In June 2025, business confidence in Nigeria rose, with the overall Confidence Index increasing to 20.7 index points from previous months, reflecting continued optimism among firms about the macroeconomic outlook. 

The National Bureau of Statistics' Consumer Price Index report for May 2025 indicated a notable decline in Nigeria’s headline inflation rate to 22.97%, down from 23.71% recorded in April 2025. This marks a continuation of the disinflationary trend observed in recent months and offers relief to consumers and businesses alike. On a year-on-year basis, the inflation rate showed significant deceleration from the 33.95% recorded in May 2024, representing a 10.98 percentage point drop within the same period. This trend signals a gradual easing of inflationary pressures across key sectors of the economy. Despite this progress, inflation remained elevated above the CBN’s medium-term target (6-9%), with structural issues such as energy costs, insecurity, and transportation bottlenecks still exerting upward pressure on prices. As such, there is a need for continued policy coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities to consolidate gains. Interventions aimed at stabilising power supply, supporting domestic production, and reducing logistics costs are critical in sustaining this downward inflation trend and fostering macroeconomic stability in the months ahead. 

According to the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) monthly report, the global price of crude oil decreased by 7.8% month-on-month in May 2025. The report showed that the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value fell by $5.36 to an average of $63.62 per barrel, down from $68.98 in April 2025. Nigeria’s Bonny Light crude also declined by 5.8%, from $68.48 per barrel in April 2025 to $64.55 per barrel in May. Lower Bonny Light prices could reduce oil revenue, thus constraining the government’s ability to implement public spending plans. The report also revealed that Nigeria’s average daily crude oil production (based on direct communication) dropped month-on-month by 2.22%, from 1.486 million barrels per day (bpd) to 1.453 million bpd in May 2025. Moreover, oil production was 3.13% below OPEC’s 1.5 million bpd quota and a significant 30.8% short of the country’s 2025 target of 2.1 million bpd. To address these developments, the Nigerian government should focus on increasing oil production by repairing critical infrastructure, enhancing efficiency, and supporting upstream investments such as exploration and drilling to meet production targets. Furthermore, due to the volatility of the sector, the government should strengthen efforts to diversify the economy by investing in strategic sectors like agriculture, manufacturing, and the digital economy to reduce dependence on oi