Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, states generated about N931.2 billion altogether in 2017 fiscal year¹, representing 12 percent above the N831.2 billion generated in 2016. Further breakdown shows that 31 states recorded increases, while only about 5 states recorded slight declines in revenue generated internally; Lagos state generated 36 percent of total internally generated revenue (IGR). Notably, with a net FAAC allocation of N1.7 trillion, total revenue available to states stood at approximately N2.7 trillion in 2017. However, the states are still burdened with debts, given the N3.2 trillion and $4.1 billion owed as domestic and foreign debts respectively as at the end of December 2017. Going forward, improvements in tax collection and administrative capacities of revenue-generating agencies of other states, beyond Lagos, can further improve overall IGR.

The World Economic Outlook report, recently released by the World Bank, reduced its growth projection for Nigeria to 2.1 percent in 2018¹, from 2.5 percent². The new growth projection is considerably lower than the 3.5 percent 2018 growth rate projected by the federal government of Nigeria. However, at 2.1 percent, the growth is a significant improvement from actual 2017 growth rate of 0.83 percent; and this outlook has been hinged on improving oil prices, revenue and production, and foreign exchange measures that contribute to better foreign exchange availability.

Consumer Price Index, the measure for inflation rate, declined (Year-on-Year) for the fourteenth consecutive month in March 2018. Headline inflation dropped to 13.34 percent¹ – representing a marginal 0.99 percentage-points decrease, and lowest inflation rate in two years. The sub-indices moved in tandem with headline inflation as food inflation fell from 17.59 percent to 16.08 percent, while core inflation moderated to 11.20 percent, down slightly from 11.70 percent. The year-on-year decline is attributable to base effects of higher prices in corresponding month of 2017. Additionally, stable exchange rate moderated the impact of imported consumer goods prices². Going forward, to stimulate further decline in both food and core inflation rates, it is necessary to promote investment in the agriculture sector as well as  to foster policies that promote forex reserve growth and exchange rate stability.

Nigeria’s Apex bank held the first meeting of its reconstituted Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) for the year 2018. Following a detailed review of domestic macroeconomic events, the MPC deemed it fit to retain all rates: MPR at 14% (which has remained at a record high of 14 percent since July 2016), CRR 22.5%, Liquidity Ratio 30% and Asymmetric corridor at +200 and -500 basis points around the MPR¹. The unchanged monetary policy can be attributed to the MPC’s satisfaction with the continued moderation in economic indices as well as the gradual return to macroeconomic stability. Going forward, fiscal policy authorities should consolidate these positive outcomes given monetary policy inaction.