Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

The recent report on Nigeria’s Public Debt Stock for the first quarter of 2018 indicates a 4.5 percent Quarter-over-Quarter increase, from N21.7 trillion in Q4 2017 to N22.7 trillion¹, and a Year-on-Year increase of 18.5 percent from N19.2 trillion². The ratio of domestic debt to external debt is put at 70:30, a reduction in domestic debt from the previous share of 73 percent, and an increase of external debt share from 27 percent – a reflection of the need for caution in external borrowings

Agricultural sector exports increased at a remarkable pace in 2017. Total earnings from agricultural export goods grew by 181 percent to N170.4 billion¹, compared to the N60.7 billion earned in 2016. The remarkable improvements in exports and export earnings reflect improvements in agricultural production and supply, at the backdrop of the provision of farm mechanization services² and a likely boost in harvest periods during the year under review

Recently released demographic figures by the NBS shows an upward progression in population and its composition. Specifically, Nigeria’s population reached 193 million in 2016, growing at an annual average of 3.25 percent¹. Going by the demographic characteristics, the population pyramid reveals that over 41 percent of the population lies between ages 0-14 – a composition of children and adolescents. This implies that fertility rate has been high, as such, a corresponding high dependency ratio. The growing share of this population age imposes supply pressure on available infrastructural amenities; from education to health systems. Similarly, the growing youth population (16-30 years) exerts pressure on the labor market, given their working-class ages

As expected, the Monetary Policy Committee left the policy interest rate (MPR) and other parameters unchanged. At 14 percent, the MPR has been left unchanged for the 10^th consecutive period¹; likewise the CRR at 22.5 percent, Liquidity Ratio at 30.0 percent; and Asymmetric corridor at +200 and -500 basis points around the MPR. All except one member of the MPC agreed to keep rates on hold, mainly in anticipation of a more precise direction of key macroeconomic indicators, including the passage and implementation of the 2018 budget. Complementary factors considered for the hold also points to the current moderation in inflation rate towards single digit, as well as higher reserve levels