Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

Total value of Nigeria’s merchandise trade contracted in 2018Q2. Valued at N6.6 trillion¹, total trade fell quarter-on-quarter by 8.9 percent from the N7.2 trillion recorded in the previous quarter. Both exports and imports declined during the period: Exports shrunk by 4.9 percent down to N4.5 trillion and was triggered by a huge fall in solid minerals and manufacturing exports. On the other hand, imports declined from N2.5 trillion to N2.1 trillion. Further review shows that crude oil accounted for 83.5 percent of total foreign merchandise trade, and trade to GDP lowered to 22.5 percent from 25.5 percent. However, there was a recorded trade surplus during the period, valued at N2.4 trillion. Going forward, there is a need for export promotion strategies, including subsidies, tax exemptions, and special credit lines to support non-oil business growth.

Latest data from the CBN shows that Nigeria’s external reserves fell significantly in August 2018. As at the end of July, the reserve stood at $47.11 billion; it dropped to $45.83 billion by August 23– losing as much as $1.23 billion in the month. The CBN’s continuous intervention along with affected foreign investment premised around political uncertainties, may have triggered the decline in reserves.  Policy actions that relay a message of future political stability and conducive business environment amid politicking for 2019 elections is critical to sustaining short-medium term investment flows.

Total capital imported into Nigeria declined in 2018Q2, compared to 2018Q1 – the first quarterly decline since 2017Q1. At $5.5 billion in 2018Q2¹, capital importation dropped by 12.5 percent from the $6.3 billion recorded in the preceding quarter. The quarter-over-quarter decline may be attributable to decreases in both portfolio and other investments, which fell by 9.8 percent and 24.1 percent respectively. However, portfolio investment maintained its leading role in contributing to total capital importation, at $4.1 billion or 74.5 percent. On the flip side, FDI continues to be the least contributor since 2017Q1, and accounted for only 4.7 percent ($264.1 million) in the review quarter. The overall lower capital inflows, particularly portfolio investments, puts into perspective the recent persistent downward trend in Nigeria’s capital and money markets.

Media highlights suggest that leading manufacturers quoted in the Nigerian Stock Exchange, NSE, which operate across sectors have recorded significant upsurge of 20.2 percent in their operating expenses, OPEX, in the first half of 2018. Specifically, compared to the corresponding half-year in 2017, costs incurred rose from N194.6 billion to N233.9 billion in 2018H1¹. The firms also operated on short term borrowings of N101 billion, up by 1.8 percent in 2017. The rising expenses may be at the backdrop of general rise in cost of: products distribution, running campaigns and innovations, and brand marketing in a bid to increase sales volume.  To reduce operating expenses and support non-oil sector growth which is yet to pick up, there is need for the government to quickly implement Focus Lab projects.

Nigeria’s infrastructure stock, comprising of roads, water-ways, seaports, airports, etc, increased slightly albeit a slower pace in recent years. At an estimated 35 percent of GDP in 2018, infrastructure stock grew marginally from the recorded 20-25 percent in 2014¹. The increase may be premised on slightly improved capital spending (the Federal government budgetary capital spending increased from N691 billion in 2015 to N2.2 trillion in 2017) for the four years under review. However, Nigeria’s infrastructure stock continues to be significantly lower than the recommended international benchmark of 70 percent- a point it hopes to reach by 2043 if the required annual $100 billion is invested over the next three decades.