Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

According to the latest CBN financial inclusion report, overall progress towards achieving the Nigeria Financial Inclusion Strategy (NFIS) fell short of the annualized target in 2017. The World Bank’s Findex database also shows that ownership of an account with a financial institution or a mobile money provider dropped by 4 percentage points from 44% in 2016 to 40% in 2017¹. The gender disparity in account ownership is greatly manifested, with 51% men owning an account compared to 27% women. Although critical themes were outlined to scale up financial inclusion targets in 2017, factors such as religious and cultural bias to the uptake of financial products, worsening levels of unemployment, and high levels of informality in the economy remained setbacks toward achieving higher rates of financial inclusion in Nigeria.

At N4,401.91 billion or 7.7 per cent of GDP, gross federally collected revenue for the first half of 2018 was 33.7 percent below the proportionate budget estimates but 47.1 percent above the level recorded in corresponding period of 2017.1 The difference in revenue, relative to the proportionate budget estimates, was driven by shortfalls in both oil and non-oil revenue components. The decline in oil revenue was due to a difference between the budgeted crude oil production benchmark of 2.3 million barrels per day (mbd) and the actual production of 1.90 mbd. An increase in crude oil price over the budget benchmark within the review period was insufficient to reverse the decreasing trend in oil revenue.

The CBN quarterly consumer expectation survey shows that consumers expressed optimism as outlook for the third quarter of 2018 was positive. Relative to 2018Q2, consumer index increased from -6.3 index points to 1.5 index points.¹ Some respondents attributed their increased confidence to improved economic conditions. Consumers also had a favourable outlook for the next quarter and the next 12 months at 24.7 and 30.1 points respectively, owing to expected increase in net household income and the anticipated improvement in Nigeria’s economic conditions. With rallying global oil prices and some stability in the Naira buttresses consumers’ economic expectations, some indicators cast gloomy prospects. These indicators include: capital flow reversals from Nigeria due to consecutive increases in the United States’ benchmark interest rate, as well as Nigeria’s depleting external reserve, declining equities market performance, and uncertainties in the political environment in lieu of the 2019 general elections