Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

The International Labor Organization (ILO) recently released a report which highlights global trends of employment. The report noted that the sub-Saharan African region which is characterized by high informal employment would experience a 3.1 percent employment growth in 20205. However, this growth will be counteracted by the displacement of workers as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. In March, the ILO noted that 38 percent of the global workforce would be displaced6 as a result of the pandemic. The high informal nature of the workforce in Nigeria, as well as limited social protection, stands to increase population vulnerability. Within Nigeria, the unemployment rate which stood at 23.1 percent in Q32018 has been steadily rising from Q12016 (10.4 percent)7. The current economic lockdown in addition to volatile global commodities markets further stands to drive the unemployment rate upward. One way to mitigate the impact is through a committed national economic diversification drive. Also, social investment and intervention programs should be strengthened and institutionalized to ameliorate the effect of poverty and unemployment on citizens.  

The Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) disbursed the sum of ₦647.35 billion to the federal, state and local of governments in February which is 9.6 percent lower than the ₦716.30 billion disbursed in January1,2. Disaggregated data shows the federal, state, and local governments received ₦267.39 billion, ₦176.92 billion, and ₦132.94 billion respectively. This decline comes as a result of a decline in revenue generated due to the fall in oil prices associated with the coronavirus pandemic. Relatedly, the federal government has revised the 2020 budget in order to account for a decline in oil revenue which includes a 20 percent cut in capital projects. Going forward, there would be a further decline in the federal allocation as the mainstay of the government’s revenue is hit by the pandemic. Sub-national governments should endeavor to generate substantial revenue to free them from the volatilities of oil prices. Aside from tax, the government should leverage on the pandemic by equipping locals to boost the production of domestic commodities in import-substitution sectors.  

The manufacturing sector PMI declined from 58.3 points to 51.1 points between February and March 20201. The slowdown was triggered by reduced growth in 7 subsectors including electrical equipment, chemical and pharmaceutical products, primary metals and non-metallic mineral products. Similarly, the non-manufacturing PMI index declined to 49.2 percent, falling below the 50 percent threshold for the first time in over 2 years1. The overall contraction is due to the depression in global economic activity which has led to a reduction in new orders, inventory and consequently employment levels across the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors. In the coming months, the reduced activity across both sectors is expected to continue as a result of the decline in global demand for exports and the reduction in local consumption. In the meantime, some manufacturers can switch to producing essential commodities that are required to tackle the pandemic. In addition, the cash transfers by the government should be distributed to manufacturing and non-manufacturing workers that would be laid off or furloughed as a result of the pandemic.

Between January and February, Nigeria’s external reserves declined from US$37.2 billion to $35.5 billion, its lowest in over 2 years1. Although the reserve level remains above the $30 billion benchmark set by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)2, the reserves have depleted considerably by 2.03% month-on-month. Since the beginning of the year, external reserves have steadily declined, falling by a total of $2.38 billion in 2020. The recent decline stems from a fall in crude oil prices occasioned by a slowdown in global economic activities following the Corona virus outbreak. Perhaps in reaction to the declining external reserves, CBN has decided to suspend the multiple exchange window policy which was hitherto used to determine the value of the Naira. The decision to collapse the multiple window rates is a step in the right direction as this will forestall some inherent demerits in using different rates which include currency roundtripping, non-reflective production costs, rent-seeking and corruption.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has taken steps to ensure financial stability amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The steps include a reduction of interest rates for all CBN interventions from 9% to 5%, the creation of a N50 billion credit facility for households and SMEs impacted by the pandemic, and N100 billion in credit support to the healthcare industry3. Other policy actions were aimed at maintaining funding levels within deposit money banks in order to sustain lending capacity to the private sector. Overall, the CBN has committed over N1 trillion to support all critical sectors, which could help buffer the effect of a global recession4. While the fiscal stimulus package is in line with global best practice, it is critical to ensure that these interventions are not exploited. For instance, prospective beneficiaries may misconstrue these loans as grants; or may be unable to repay the loans leading to an enormous bad debt burden on the government. In addition, the extent to which these loans will reach certain businesses affected by the stay-at-home policy such as food vendors and artisans is debatable. However, MSMEs can utilize these interventions to boost local manufacturing and achieve import substitution in these industries.