Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

Microsoft Word - Harvard help sheet The Nigerian Investment Promotion Commission (NIPC) reported a 67 percent decline in investment in H1 2020, compared to H1 2019. The decline saw investment fall to US$5.06 billion compared to US$15.15 billion in the preceding year². Top destination sectors include Transportation & Storage (39%) as well as Information & Communication (32%) sectors. However, the overall weak economic activity in top donor countries like United States of America (USA), which account for 43 percent of inflows contributed to the decline. Understandably, the lockdown measures and low oil price have slowed existing investment prospects and caused multinational enterprises to reassess new projects which will affect development. Going forward, investment is likely to continue to decline given that these conditions are unlikely to give way until the pandemic ends. Nevertheless, the NIPC should use the pandemic as an opportunity to promote investment in traditional and new opportunity areas including health, food and agriculture, and tech-related sectors. Furthermore, the NIPC should develop an online one-stop shop for investors in the absence of inter-country travel.

Microsoft Word - Harvard help sheet

The inflation rate for the month of June rose to 12.56 percent from 12.40 percent in May¹. The rise in inflation was driven by a rise in all components of the headline index, as food sub-index rose by 0.14 percent to 15.18 percent and the core sub-index rose by 0.01 percent to 10.13 percent. On a state level, headline inflation was highest in Bauchi (15.02%), Sokoto (14.88%) and Ebonyi (14.60%), while Cross River (10.95%), Lagos (10.78%) and Kwara (10.03%) recorded the slowest rise in headline inflation. The rise in the core sub-index was driven by an increase in the price of medical and hospital services, as well as motor cars and passenger transport by road which is intuitive given the upward pressure on the demand for these services. Given that the borders are still closed and restrictions to inter-state travel remain, we expect the demand for local medical services and road transport to remain high, thus causing suppliers to raise price and further increasing inflation. The monetary authorities will have to address the inflationary pressure while providing loans to the private sector with low interest rates to mitigate against the pandemic.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) recently announced a ban on the importation of maize/corn1. This ban adds maize to the list of 41 other products some of which include rice, cement, margarine, and palm kernel that had earlier been banned2. The embargo comes as a means to further encourage local production, stimulate economic growth as well as secure local jobs and livelihoods. Available data shows that Nigeria imported 400,000 tons of maize in 2019 the same as it did in 20183. However, forex restrictions on the importation of rice, coupled with the closure of the Nigerian land borders to neighboring countries, has seen the country move from a major importer to the largest producer of rice in Africa.⁴ By extension, it is expected that the addition of maize to the forex restriction list will help to stimulate its domestic production and thus reduce or eliminate dependence on imported maize. Consequently, this effort is also expected to limit domestic demand for forex and curb the exchange rate volatility.

According to the Debt Management Office (DMO), the outstanding public debt declined by 5.65 percent from $84 billion to $79.3 billion between December 2019 and March 2020¹. The reduction was driven by a 9 percent decline in domestic debt from $56.4 billion to $51.6 billion during the same period². Meanwhile, the change to external debt was minimal as it tapered around $27.6 billion in both periods. While the decline in domestic debt is as a result of the redemption of Nigeria Treasury Bills (NTBs), the stagnation of external debt stems from the government’s need to limit its exposure to exchange rate volatility. However, the $3.4 billion in emergency support received from the IMF in April as well as the reliance on domestic debt to mitigate the impact of the pandemic will increase public debt in the near term. In this context, effective debt management is important not only with regards to the terms of borrowing but also in debt use and transparency.

The manufacturers Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) declined by 3 percent to 41.1 index points between May and June 2020, indicating an increased shrinking in the sector¹. The slowdown was noted across 9 of the 14 surveyed subsectors and was attributed to continued decline in production levels, supply deliveries and new orders within the manufacturing sector. Conversely, the non-manufacturers PMI rose from 25.3 to 35.7 index points albeit lower than the 50-point benchmark. This was driven by an increase in employment, inventories and overall business activity. This rise follows the gradual removal of the lockdown measures and is expected to persist as next month’s business outlook for the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors is 2.7 and 2.4 percent higher respectively². Firms should be prepared to shift their supply chains and adjust to the new business environment. For instance, as remote working becomes the new normal, the increased demand for computing infrastructure is an opportunity firms can seize.