Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

According to the Central Bank of Nigeria, the primary market recorded a rise in interest rates for the first time in 3 months. The rise was recorded in the recent 13^th May auction as interest rates rose to 2.5% (+35%) and 2.85% (+16%) for the 91-day and 182-day tenor respectively when compared to the preceding auction¹. The rise in interest rates can be attributed to lower demand given that investors are seeking for safer assets in more stable currencies in these unprecedented times. Bearing in mind that the government aims to mobilize domestic funds following a shift in debt sourcing, this will increase the cost of borrowing for the government. In addition, considering that the interest rate on T-bills is the benchmark interest rate, the rates of other commodities including bonds and equities are expected to rise. The rise in interest rate will increase the need to save for households, thus lowering consumption and increase the cost of borrowing for firms, thus reducing investment. The overall effect will be a negative impact on economic growth.

The recent NBS survey found that 40.1% – 82.9 million – Nigerians are living in poverty with the national poverty line estimated at ₦137,430per year ¹. As such, 4 out of 10 Nigerians spend less than ₦376 per day on both food and non-food basic needs. A further disaggregation shows that the population in rural and urban areas living in poverty are 52.1% and 18% respectively. On inequality, the report found that the national Gini coefficient was 35.1 while the coefficient for the rural and urban population are 32.8 and 31.9 respectively.  The level of inequality in Nigeria is comparable to that of in India (35.2) but significantly below countries like South Africa (62.5)². Based on the experiences of countries that have improved the living standard of a large proportion of their population, Nigeria will need to achieve sustained and high economic growth, substantial infrastructural development, provide large-scale structured and targeted poverty alleviation programs alongside social development programs. In doing this, the government will not only provide immediate relief to the poor but will also enhance the income-generating potential of citizens and minimize the risk of falling into poverty.

he International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently announced the approval of $3.4 billion emergency support to Nigeria under its Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) facility1. This support fund comes as part of efforts to assist the nation in mitigating potential balance of payment problems as a result of both the decline in oil revenue as well as the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The IMF has approved a total of $8.3 billion to countries in the sub-Saharan region under various financing schemes in order to mitigate the impact of the pandemic2. However, the fund to Nigeria is the single largest disbursement made to any nation within the region and it is expected to provide the country with the much-needed liquidity during this critical period. On the grounds that Nigeria is taking 100% of its quota under the RFI, the government is expected to pay a concession fee totaling about 1.05% with repayment period up to 5 years. Although, this loan is not expected to completely finance the government’s spending plans or avert the imminent recession, it will serve as a cushion for revenue shortage problems.

The total direct remittance inflow into Nigeria has declined considerably, falling by 50% from US$2.04 billion to US$1.01 billion between January and February 20201. This is significantly lower than 2019 levels, as a total of US$23 billion was remitted in 2019, making Nigeria the highest recipient within the sub-Saharan African region2. However, with many of its citizens resident in the diaspora residing in countries that have been severely hit by the COVID-19 pandemic including Spain, Italy, the United Kingdom and the United States, their ability to work and thus remit funds has been significantly limited. Given that remittance is a major source of income for vulnerable households in developing countries, this recent development could increase poverty and further widen inequality. In the coming months, remittance flows are expected to continue declining as a recent World Bank report noted that flows to low- and middle-income countries in sub-Saharan Africa will fall by 23.1% in 20202. In order to mitigate against the impact on vulnerable households, the government should provide additional social safety nets for the poor and ensure that the distribution mechanism of the cash transfer programme is efficient and equitable.

The recent World Economic Outlook (WEO) report released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reveals that Nigeria’s economy will contract to -3.4% in 2020, falling from 2.2% projected in 2019.1 The Fund’s projection takes into cognizance the large drop in oil prices and impact of containment and mitigation measures on economic activities. The report also projects inflation to rise from 11.4% to 13.4%, government debt as a percent of GDP to increase from 29.4% to 35.3% and external reserves to fall from 6.1 to 3.9 months of import between 2019 and 2020. However, GDP and inflation are expected to rebound to 2.4% and 12.4% respectively in 2021. Going forward, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, through business travel and tourism, supply chains, commodities and lower confidence, will worsen the already bleak economic outlook. Nigeria’s economy will be particularly hard hit considering the intensity of the impact on China, a notable trading partner. The government should consider as priority, fiscal stimulus packages for the affected industries and workers and boost investment to accelerate recovery.