Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that 2,080 road accidents occurred in the second quarter of 2020.¹ Accounting for 47 percent of crashes, speed violation was reported to be the leading cause of crashes, followed by wrongful overtaking which accounted for 10 percent. A total of 855 lives were lost in road crashes with 5,535 people injured during the period. In both cases of injury and death, adults formed the majority amounting to 93 percent and 92 percent respectively. According to the report, men were approximately 4 times more likely to be a victim of road accident than women. The leading number of road accident cases occurred in the following states: Kaduna (177), Ogun (170), FCT (165), and Oyo (138). While the Federal Road Safety Corp (FRSC) penalizes traffic violations, it is imperative to display speed limits, sensitize the public on penalties/fines, and implement an automobile speed violation detection system across the country, particularly in urban areas. This will curb accidents as a result of over speeding and also increase the revenue accruing the government through payment of penalties/fines.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) voted to reduce the Monetary Policy Rate by 100 basis points, from 12.5 percent to 11.5 percent.¹ Other decisions taken by the MPC includes the retention of Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) at 27.5 percent and retaining the liquidity ratio at 30 percent. These decisions were made in support of driving price stability and output growth. The MPC aims to use these policies to help reduce cost of capital in order for businesses to be able to afford loans. While the reduction in the MPR is expected to reflect in the interest rate of commercial banks, the banking sector may not be well-positioned to provide affordable loans. Considering that loans and advances to the oil sector accounts for about 30 percent of the risk assets in the banking industry, the disruption in the oil sector is likely to affect the ability of these companies to service their loans. Furthermore, banks are already being encouraged to offer debt moratorium by restructuring existing loans combined with the already high cash reserve ratio, making it difficult for them to make loans available. As such, revisions to CRR should be considered at the next MPC meeting.

he World Bank has approved of $750 million for the Power Sector Recovery Programme (PSRP) through the International Development Association (IDA).¹ The disbursement plan to commence in 2021 is as follows: $426 million in 2021 and $162 million in 2022 and 2023, respectively, summing up to $750 million. The recovery plan being set up is to enable Nigeria achieve a more reliable electricity supply and improve the accountability of the power sector. Presently, approximately 47 percent of the population do not have access to national grid electricity. The population that has access are subjected to frequent power outages, a major constraint that costs the Nigerian economy around $28 billion, annually – equivalent to 2 percent of the GDP. Furthermore, the aim of the PSRP is to make Nigeria a more financially sustainable nation and it will achieve this by increasing the annual electricity supplied to the national grid by 4,500 MWh/hour by 2022. Aside improving service delivery, the additional liquidity will strengthen the balance sheet of distribution companies and enhance their ability to attract private finance. Furthermore, the government will be better positioned to utilize the resources previously used to bail out the power sector for other development spending.

A recently conducted study by the World Bank shows that the cost of mortality and morbidity due to air pollution from exposure to fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅) stood at $2.1 billion or N631 billion (0.5% of Nigeria’s GDP).² Lagos state has an exceedingly high concentration of PM₂.₅, at annual mean concentration  of levels of 68μg/m³ which exceed the World Health Organization (WHO)’s guideline for the annual mean PM₂.₅ level of 10μg/m³. Consequently, 11,200 people die from air pollution with 60 percent of the deaths under the age of 5. Sources of air pollution in the state include, road transport, heavy energy dependence on inefficient diesel and gasoline generators due to unreliable power, poor waste management, polluting fuel and stoves for household cooking etc. Air pollution is injurious to human health especially those that are already vulnerable – children, elderly, or people with existing health problems. In addition, it increases the rate of cardiovascular and respiratory ailments as well as mortality rates in the economy. Intrinsically, the life expectancy is reduced by air pollution. Therefore, to curtail these effects, low emission vehicles should be adopted and old generators should be discarded. Thus, they should be replaced with a better source of power such as renewable source of energy.