Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

Foreign capital imported into Nigeria increased by 53.97 percent from US$3.8 billion in the fourth quarter of 2019 to US$5.85 billion in the first quarter of 2020. This rise was largely driven by an increase in portfolio investments which grew 128.78 percent to US$4.3 billion, accounting for 73.61 percent of total capital importation. Other components such as foreign direct investment (-16.7 percent) and other investment (-19.9 percent) declined compared to the previous quarter¹. The rise indicates a renewed interest from investors in local money market instruments, which had been on the decline since Q12019. This capital inflow would benefit the limited national foreign reserves. As the government shifts away from foreign debt and seeks to borrow US$4.34 billion from the domestic market, the associated increase in yields will attract foreign investors and is likely to further increase foreign portfolio investment in the coming months. However, caution should be taken as sudden increases in the FPI outflows will have a negative impact on the foreign exchange market and the overall economy.

A recently released NBS report indicated a 20.92% rise in Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) in 2019. The year on year rise saw total IGR hit ₦1.33 trillion. The rise was largely driven by revenue generated from income tax which accounted for 60.7% of IGR. Lagos state as the highest contributor with ₦398.73 billion accounted for 29.88% of total revenue generated².  On the other hand, Taraba state was the lowest contributor with ₦53.04 billion. The improvement in tax compliance stands to make provision for state-level fiscal sustainability as well as a continued increase in total IGR. State governments can leverage on the fall in demand for oil to identify innovations and muster the political will required to expand their IGR base.

According to the Central Bank of Nigeria, the primary market recorded a rise in interest rates for the first time in 3 months. The rise was recorded in the recent 13^th May auction as interest rates rose to 2.5% (+35%) and 2.85% (+16%) for the 91-day and 182-day tenor respectively when compared to the preceding auction¹. The rise in interest rates can be attributed to lower demand given that investors are seeking for safer assets in more stable currencies in these unprecedented times. Bearing in mind that the government aims to mobilize domestic funds following a shift in debt sourcing, this will increase the cost of borrowing for the government. In addition, considering that the interest rate on T-bills is the benchmark interest rate, the rates of other commodities including bonds and equities are expected to rise. The rise in interest rate will increase the need to save for households, thus lowering consumption and increase the cost of borrowing for firms, thus reducing investment. The overall effect will be a negative impact on economic growth.

The recent NBS survey found that 40.1% – 82.9 million – Nigerians are living in poverty with the national poverty line estimated at ₦137,430per year ¹. As such, 4 out of 10 Nigerians spend less than ₦376 per day on both food and non-food basic needs. A further disaggregation shows that the population in rural and urban areas living in poverty are 52.1% and 18% respectively. On inequality, the report found that the national Gini coefficient was 35.1 while the coefficient for the rural and urban population are 32.8 and 31.9 respectively.  The level of inequality in Nigeria is comparable to that of in India (35.2) but significantly below countries like South Africa (62.5)². Based on the experiences of countries that have improved the living standard of a large proportion of their population, Nigeria will need to achieve sustained and high economic growth, substantial infrastructural development, provide large-scale structured and targeted poverty alleviation programs alongside social development programs. In doing this, the government will not only provide immediate relief to the poor but will also enhance the income-generating potential of citizens and minimize the risk of falling into poverty.

he International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently announced the approval of $3.4 billion emergency support to Nigeria under its Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) facility1. This support fund comes as part of efforts to assist the nation in mitigating potential balance of payment problems as a result of both the decline in oil revenue as well as the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The IMF has approved a total of $8.3 billion to countries in the sub-Saharan region under various financing schemes in order to mitigate the impact of the pandemic2. However, the fund to Nigeria is the single largest disbursement made to any nation within the region and it is expected to provide the country with the much-needed liquidity during this critical period. On the grounds that Nigeria is taking 100% of its quota under the RFI, the government is expected to pay a concession fee totaling about 1.05% with repayment period up to 5 years. Although, this loan is not expected to completely finance the government’s spending plans or avert the imminent recession, it will serve as a cushion for revenue shortage problems.