Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

The CBN quarterly consumer expectation survey shows that consumers expressed optimism as outlook for the third quarter of 2018 was positive. Relative to 2018Q2, consumer index increased from -6.3 index points to 1.5 index points.¹ Some respondents attributed their increased confidence to improved economic conditions. Consumers also had a favourable outlook for the next quarter and the next 12 months at 24.7 and 30.1 points respectively, owing to expected increase in net household income and the anticipated improvement in Nigeria’s economic conditions. With rallying global oil prices and some stability in the Naira buttresses consumers’ economic expectations, some indicators cast gloomy prospects. These indicators include: capital flow reversals from Nigeria due to consecutive increases in the United States’ benchmark interest rate, as well as Nigeria’s depleting external reserve, declining equities market performance, and uncertainties in the political environment in lieu of the 2019 general elections

The recent compilation of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at sub-national level by the NBS provides estimates for eleven states for a five-year period covering 2013-2017. The eleven states covered, contributed a total of N33.3 trillion to nominal GDP in 2017

The World Bank’s recently unveiled Human Capital Index ranks Nigeria at 152^nd position out of the 157 countries surveyed, with a value of 0.34.  Nigeria is placed below several other sub-Saharan African countries. The poor ranking likely accounts for long years...

The World Bank’s recent Africa Pulse publication reveals a revised 2018 growth rate forecast for Nigeria from the earlier projected 2.1 percent to 1.9 percent¹ – representing a slight downward review. The revision was premised around what the institution termed “sluggish growth” amid rising debts, and a myriad of factors including declining oil production, disruptions in agricultural activities occasioned by the incessant herdsmen and farmers clashes, and effects of climate change. The contraction in the agricultural sector stalled crop production and dampened prospects of increased non-oil growth, all of which stunted economic recovery². With the continued implementation of the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (2017-2020), there are strong possibilities that the economy may benefit from revenue sources other than oil in the near future.

Nigeria’s all products terms of trade (calculated as the receipts of exports as a percentage of payments for imports), indicated increases in the three months of 2018Q2. Indexed at an average of 110.8% in 2018Q2¹, the favourable TOT reflects improvement from an average of 99.2% in 2018Q1. A further breakdown shows that TOT indices for April, May and June stood at 100.5%, 111.1% and 109.2% respectively which implies that the value of exports exceeded imports by 0.5%, 11.1% and 9.02% in each of the months. The positive trade position is attributable to improvements in mineral, animal and vegetable products group, as reported. With renewed interest in the Agric and mineral sectors by the government and private sector, we expect an improvement in the trade position.