Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

Power sector statistics indicates a huge decline in power generated in the week under review (June 23, 2017 to June 30, 2017). Power generated, attained a peak of 4,305 MW on June 23, 2017 but fell significantly by 33.1 percent to approximately average of 3,000 MW as at June 30, 2017. The huge decline is attributable to continued poor payment and inability of most GENCOs to pay for gas supply and a system collapse. Consequently, power sector lost huge prospective funds; and daily power supply reduced to 4.5 hours per day7. Going forward, improvement in energy supply is critical to domestic production, job creation, and diversification agenda of the government.

Naira appreciated in the week under review. At the parallel market, naira gained 0.54 percent to exchange at N368/$ on June 23, 20175. This is at the backdrop of injections into the forex market by the CBN to the tune of $195 million at the beginning of the review week, to meet various forex demands. This is amid a slight week-on-week increase in the external reserves (by 0.1 percent to $30.23 billion). Despite the recent naira appreciation, the long-term prospects seem bleak given that the ongoing intervention that seeks to stabilize naira by depleting reserves is unsustainable.

The external reserves decreased week-on-week marginally by 0.2 percent from June 9, 2017 to June 16, 2017. The reserve declined from $30.27 billion to $30.21 billion. Given that crude oil revenue constitutes the most part of the reserve, the decline may be reflective of the week-on-week drop in global crude oil price (Crude oil price fell by approximately 2 percent to $47.377 per barrel as at June 16 2017). The ongoing forex intervention by the monetary authority also poses a challenge to foreign reserve conservation. Given the unimpressive performance of global oil prices in recent time, there is need to explore other areas with great potentials to generate foreign exchange earnings. Diversification of forex earnings remains the key to insulating foreign reserve against fluctuations in global commodity prices. The country can tap into solid minerals sector as alternative source of foreign exchange. Huge investment together with investor-friendly policies in solid minerals would make the sector attractive to investors.

Recently released report by the NBS shows an increase in Unemployment and Underemployment rates for 2016Q4 relative to preceding and corresponding quarters. The unemployment rate, at 14.2 percent, indicates a 3.8% points YoY4increase, and a 0.3% points QoQ increase with the number of unemployed people increasing by 351,051 persons. Similarly, underemployment rate grew (QoQ) by 1.3% points to 21%, representing about 17 million underemployed persons as at the quarter. The rise in unemployment/underemployment rate is attributable to the disproportionate rise in labour force vis--vis job creation, in addition to slow-down in economic/business activities during the quarter. Going forward, the government should make efforts to strengthen and expand Nigerias entrepreneurial infrastructure.

Available data from Nigeria Bureau of Statistics shows a decline in the Nigeria Aviation sub-sector (Transport Sector) real growth rate in 2017Q1. Compared to the preceding quarter, the sub-sector declined significantly by 9.6 percent, due to decline in the number of passengers and movement of aircrafts this may be connected to the closure of the Abuja airport for infrastructural development during the period. To ensure a near-optimal performance of the aviation sector, the government should also make efforts to improve aviation safety and security, establish a national carrier, and improve aircraft maintenance to world class standards.