Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) weekly market report for the final week of April 2025 (Monday–Friday) closed with a marginal improvement, as the NGX All-Share Index (ASI) rose by 0.27% to 106,042.57 points, while market capitalisation increased by 0.28% to ₦66.65 trillion. This modest uptick signals a cautious return by investors following a persistent decline since March, largely triggered by profit-taking and macroeconomic uncertainties. However, beneath the headline gains, sectoral performance remained broadly negative. Major indices such as NGX Banking (-0.38%), Insurance ( 2.89%), AFR Bank Value (-0.04%), MERI Value ( 2.08%), Oil & Gas (-2.90%), Lotus II (-0.01%), Sovereign Bond (-0.19%), and Commodity (-1.12%) all recorded losses. These declines reflect continued investor concerns over inflationary pressures, restrictive monetary policies, and weak earnings expectations across key sectors. The marginal recovery in the ASI was supported by selective interest in fundamentally strong stocks; yet, persistent underperformance across core segments highlights the fragility of overall market sentiment. To build long-term resilience, policymakers and capital market stakeholders must prioritise restoring investor confidence through consistent macroeconomic policies, transparent regulations, and targeted, market friendly reforms. Curbing inflation, stabilising the naira, and enhancing sectoral competitiveness are critical to sustaining capital inflows and driving a more inclusive market rebound.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics’ Consumer Price Index report for March 2025, Headline inflation rate rose to 24.23%, marking a 1.05 percentage point increase from the 23.18% recorded in February 2025. The report also showed that food inflation stood at 21.79% for the month under review, reflecting a 1.72 percentage point drop from the 23.51% recorded in the previous month. By state profile, food inflation was highest in Oyo State at 34.41%, followed by Kaduna at 31.14%, and Kebbi at 30.85%. Conversely, states such as Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, and Sokoto recorded the slowest rises in food inflation at 12.81%, 14.02%, and 14.83%, respectively. The high food inflation can be attributed to increases in the cost of complementary food staples such as garri, potatoes, and honey. Additionally, the depreciation of the naira and fluctuating exchange rates have raised the cost of imported food and agricultural products. This, coupled with escalating farmer-herder conflicts and banditry, has led to widespread farmland abandonment, particularly in the Middle Belt and Northwest regions. As inflationary pressures continue to rise, increased food prices will have dire consequences, especially for low-income households, which allocate a larger share of their income to food. Reduced purchasing power is also expected to worsen malnutrition, as high prices push families to substitute nutritious foods with cheaper, less healthy alternatives. Therefore, the government must strengthen security in agricultural zones, ensure safe farming areas in affected states, provide subsidised inputs and access to mechanised tools for smallholder farmers, and rebuild rural agricultural infrastructure

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) April Monthly Oil Market Report reveals that Nigeria’s average daily crude oil production (based on direct communication) declined by 4.37% (64,000 bpd), from 1.465 million bpd recorded in the preceding month to 1.401 million bpd in March. The report also shows that oil production fell by 6.6% below OPEC's 1.5 million bpd quota and a staggering 32% short of the country’s 2025 target of 2.06 million bpd. Persistent shortfalls in meeting government production targets stem from systemic challenges such as chronic underinvestment and rampant oil theft, all contributing to suppressed output. The decline in oil production and the falling oil prices in the international market are likely to strain fiscal revenues, exacerbating budgetary pressures. This will detrimentally impact national reserves, thereby reducing the availability of resources for developmental spending. While the government has no control over global oil prices, it can, to some extent, meet its OPEC production quota. Therefore, the government must intensify efforts by enforcing stricter penalties for oil theft, while fostering greater collaboration with local communities. Simultaneously, there is a need to attract investment in the sector by ensuring that regulatory bodies and the judiciary work together to provide an enabling environment for investment and modernisation of oil infrastructure

According to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Nigeria recorded a Balance of Payments (BoP) surplus of $6.83 billion in 2024, reversing deficits of $3.34 billion in 2023 and $3.32 billion in 2022. This marks a significant improvement attributed to macroeconomic reforms, improved trade, and rising investor confidence. The current and capital account posted a surplus of $17.22 billion, driven by a goods trade surplus of $13.17 billion. Petroleum imports declined by 23.2% to $14.06 billion, while non-oil imports fell by 12.6% to $25.74 billion. On the export side, gas exports increased by 48.3% to $8.66 billion, and non-oil exports rose by 24.6% to $7.46 billion. The financial account reported gains, with a net financial asset acquisition of $12.12 billion. Portfolio investments more than doubled to $13.35 billion, and resident foreign currency holdings increased by $5.41 billion. However, foreign direct investment (FDI) fell by 42.3% to $1.08 billion. It is expected that a BoP surplus will result in a stronger currency and bigger foreign reserves, allowing for more investment and economic growth. To attain the rewards associated with the BoP surplus, the government must continue to modernise the economy and maintain stable forex policies to attract long-term capital and decrease external vulnerabilities. 

The March 2025 Household Expectations Survey report provides insights into how Nigerian households perceive and anticipate changes in key economic indicators. The report reveals that most households believe inflation and interest rates have risen significantly over the past year