Nigeria Economic Update, Issue 46

According to the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Monthly Oil Market report for November 2025, Nigeria’s crude oil production increased marginally to 1.4 million barrels per day (mb/d) in October 2025, representing a 0.8% rise from the 1.3 mb/d recorded in September 2025. Despite this slight increase, production remained below the country’s oil production quota of 1.5 mb/d, marking the third consecutive month that Nigeria failed to meet its target. Concurrently, the price of Nigeria’s Bonny Light fell from $69.44 per barrel in September to $65.53 per barrel in October 2025, a decrease of $3.91 per barrel. The continued inability to meet production quotas reflects operational inefficiencies and persistent challenges, including pipeline vandalism.The decline in crude oil prices in October 2025 was driven by increased global oil supply, which exceeded demand by 500,000 barrels per day. Lower oil prices combined with production shortfalls have direct implications for government revenues from oil exports, creating macroeconomic uncertainty and putting pressure on exchange rate stability. To address production shortages, the government should strengthen infrastructure and security measures to prevent vandalism and operational disruptions. Investment in downstream activities, such as gas commercialisation, could help reduce dependence on crude oil export revenue. Additionally, efforts to diversify the economy should be intensified to mitigate exposure to global oil market shocks, which is significantly shaped by numerous global factors.

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