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Artificial intelligence (AI) has emerged as one of the most transformative technologies of the 21st century, with the potential to unlock trillions of dollars in economic value globally. According to PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), AI could contribute up to USD 15.7 trillion to the global economy by 2030, with USD 6.6 trillion coming from productivity improvements and USD 9.11 trillion from increased consumer demand. While the surge in AI adoption is most visible in advanced economies, the ripple effects are reaching emerging markets, where AI offers both opportunities and significant challenges.

The Movement in Foreign Reserves data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) revealed that the country’s foreign reserves rose to $41 billion on August 19, 2025, the highest level in 44 months. This is the highest amount recorded since December 3, 2021, marking a significant increase from the $37 billion to $39 billion range within which reserves fluctuated during the second and third quarters of the year. In its 301st Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) communique, the CBN noted continued stability in the foreign exchange market, citing factors such as higher capital inflows, improved oil production, rising non-oil exports, and reduced imports. The recent surge in reserves can also be attributed to these factors. The recent boost in reserves strengthened the country’s economic buffer, relieving pressure on the Naira and helping to restore market confidence. Despite these gains, significant risks remain that could slow the growth of the foreign reserve, such as declining inflows and high debt servicing costs. To sustain this upward trend, it is essential to maintain manageable debt levels and further enhance oil production through infrastructural investment. Futhermore, boosting non oil exports is critical and can be achieved by improving business access to credit, affordable electricity, transportation networks, and ensuring the availability of raw materials for production. 

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) report, Nigeria recorded a total capital importation of US$5.64 billion in the first quarter of 2025. This marked a significant 67.12% increase compared to the US$3.38 billion recorded in Q1 2024 and a 10.86% rise from the US$5.09 billion recorded in Q4 2024. The surge reflects renewed investor confidence, largely driven by short-term inflows. Portfolio investment dominated capital importation, accounting for 92.25% of the total at US$5.20 billion. Other investment followed with US$311.17 million (5.52%), while foreign direct investment (FDI) remained low at just US$126.29 million (2.24%). This composition suggests that while Nigeria remains attractive for quick return capital, long-term investor confidence remains weak. The banking and financing sectors received the bulk of inflows, jointly accounting for over 92% of the total. Capital came predominantly from the United Kingdom, followed by South Africa and Mauritius. Abuja (FCT) and Lagos State were the top destinations, receiving over 99% of all inflows. Standard Chartered, Stanbic IBTC, and Citibank were the leading recipient banks. While rising portfolio flows were positive in the short term, Nigeria’s overreliance on them poses significant risks. To boost FDI, the government should prioritise regulatory stability, infrastructure development, real sector reforms, and expanded investor outreach. Diversifying capital sources and sectors is crucial for boosting long-term economic growth and employment. 

The Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Business Expectations Survey (BES) for June 2025 revealed sustained optimism among businesses across the country. The overall Confidence Index stood at 20.7 index points, indicating positive sentiments about the current macroeconomic environment. This upbeat outlook is projected to strengthen further, with index points reaching 23.0 in July, 34.9 in September, and 41.3 in December 2025. Sectoral responses suggest broad based optimism. The industry sector recorded the highest optimism in June 2025, with a confidence level of 23.1 index points. The confidence index is expected to rise significantly, with projections for the next six months reaching 48.3 for Industry and 42.8 for Agriculture. The Services sector also showed a promising trajectory, with optimism rising to 36.8 index points in the next six months. The Business Confidence Index (BCI) further highlighted sectoral optimism. The Construction sector led with the highest confidence index at 15.4 index points, followed by Manufacturing (13.1), Mining and Quarrying (12.5), Agriculture (11.4), Market Services (10.7), and Non-Market Services (7.6). Regionally, the outlook for the macroeconomy remains largely positive, which is favourable for the overall economy. However, to consolidate this growing confidence, consistent monetary and fiscal coordination is essential, particularly measures that address credit accessibility, interest rate concerns, and structural constraints that vary across regions.

The Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation reported that a total sum of ₦1.818 trillion, was shared among all three tiers of government. This amount was 9.58% higher than the ₦1.659 trillion distributed for May 2025. The allocation included ₦645.383 billion to the Federal Government, ₦607.417 billion to state governments, and ₦444.853 billion to local governments. Additionally, ₦162.786 billion was earmarked for collection costs, while ₦2.251 trillion was allocated for total transfers, interventions, refunds, and savings. The total distributable revenue comprised ₦1.018 trillion in statutory revenue and ₦631.507 billion from the distributable Value Added Tax (VAT). The gross revenue of ₦678.165 billion available from VAT in June 2025 was lower than the ₦742.820 billion available in May 2025. From the distributable VAT revenue, the Federal Government received ₦94.726 billion, the State Governments received ₦315.754 billion, and Local Government Councils received ₦221.027 billion. The Electronic Money Transfer Levy (EMTL), which contributed ₦29.165 billion, was distributed as ₦4.375 billion to the Federal Government, ₦14.582 billion to the State Governments, and ₦10.208 billion to the Local Government Councils. The increase in revenue resulted from a ₦100 billion augmentation to shared revenue and significant increases in Companies Income Tax (CIT) and Petroleum Profit Tax (PPT). This increase in total distributable revenue implies improved tax collection. However, VAT declined during the period under consideration. Other tax measures, such as gas royalties, import duties, and excise duties, also experienced revenue declines. Such declines in VAT and trade-related taxes, such as import and excise duties indicate weakened consumer spending, lower import activity, rising inflation, reduced purchasing power, and a slower economy. Therefore, the government should implement targeted consumer stimulus programme or tax relief for low-income households to boost spending and expand the VAT base. The government should also strengthen tax administration and compliance in non-oil sectors while stimulating domestic production and consumption to reverse declines in VAT and trade-related revenues

The Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTB) issuance calendar for the third quarter of 2025 revealed that the Federal Government plans to raise ₦1.76 billion through NTB auctions in response to a total of ₦1.98 billion in maturing obligations over the period. This planned borrowing is a step towards the ongoing efforts to manage liquidity and refinance short-term debt amid fiscal pressures. The issuance programme is spread across the 91-day, 182-day, and 364-day tenures, with the 364-day instrument accounting for the bulk of the offer at ₦1.19 billion, signalling a preference for locking in longer-term funds at prevailing interest rates. The 91-day and 182-day instruments are expected to raise ₦340 million and ₦230 million, respectively. According to the auction calendar, active issuances are concentrated in July and August, with relatively fewer maturities and offerings scheduled for September. This borrowing plan continues a trend of leveraging the domestic money market to manage the government’s short-term funding needs while maintaining investor confidence through regular auctions. However, while it provides temporary fiscal relief, it also highlights structural fiscal challenges, including the rising cost of debt servicing and limited revenue growth. To improve long-term fiscal sustainability, there is a growing need to complement these short-term borrowing efforts with broader public finance reforms. Key areas include enhancing non-oil revenue mobilisation, rationalising recurrent expenditure, and deepening the domestic debt market to include longer-term instruments that reduce refinancing risks and promote macroeconomic stability. 

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) reiterated the soundness of the country’s banking sector in June 2025 while announcing time-bound transitional measures for a few institutions still adjusting to the withdrawal of temporary regulatory support introduced during the COVID-19 period. These steps are part of the broader implementation of the 2023 recapitalisation programme, which aimed to strengthen the financial sector in line with Nigeria’s long-term economic development objectives. The report indicated that most banks have either met or are well on track to meet the new capital requirements ahead of the March 31, 2026, deadline. For the few banks still in transition, the CBN has placed temporary restrictions on capital distributions such as dividends and bonuses to encourage earnings retention and reinforce capital buffers. These adjustments align with global regulatory norms and are consistent with similar practices in developed economies. Nigeria’s capital framework continues to exceed global Basel III standards, reflecting the CBN’s conservative approach to financial oversight. To maintain momentum, the CBN should consider supporting affected banks with technical assistance to accelerate compliance without undermining confidence in the sector.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics' (NBS) Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) report, the average price of PMS, commonly known as petrol, stood at ₦1,027.76 in May 2025. This represents a 17.07% decrease from the ₦1,239.33 month-on-month (MoM) in April 2025 but remains 33.54% higher than the ₦769.62 year-on-year (YoY) recorded in May 2024, indicating continued pressure on consumers. At the state level, Sokoto recorded the highest average price at N1,100.50, followed by Zamfara at ₦1,093.21 and Anambra at ₦1,084.13. Meanwhile, Yobe (₦950.60), Rivers (₦981.67), and Taraba (₦983.00) had the lowest average prices. Furthermore, zonal analysis showed that the Southeast recorded the highest average price at ₦1,049.15, while the North Central zone had the lowest at ₦1,005.42. Although the month-on-month decline may suggest some relief, petrol prices remain significantly high compared to the previous year, posing a sustained burden on transportation costs, business operations, and household spending. To address this, the government should prioritise expanding domestic refining capacity and reducing distribution costs to bring long-term stability to fuel prices. At the same time, supporting affordable public transport and ensuring consistent fuel supply across regions can help ease immediate pressure on households and businesses. 

The National Bureau of Statistics' (NBS) Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) Price Watch report for May 2025 revealed that the average retail price for refilling a 5kg Cylinder of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (Cooking Gas) rose month-on-month by 3.57%, climbing from ₦7,885.60 in April 2025 to ₦8,167.43 in May 2025. Compared to the same period last year, the price surged by 10.10%, up from ₦7,418.45 in May 2024. A closer look at the state-level average price for refilling a 5kg cylinder of LPG highlights notable disparities, as Abia recorded the highest average price at ₦9,181.20, closely followed by Ebonyi and Rivers states, with prices of ₦9,177.32 and ₦9,174.40, respectively. Conversely, Oyo state offered the most affordable price at ₦7,116.49, with Niger and Plateau states also among the lower-priced states at ₦7,142.07 and ₦7,177.10, respectively. When analysed by geopolitical zones, the South-South zone recorded the highest average retail price (₦8,760.51), followed by the South-East at ₦8,724.70. The North-Central zone reported the lowest average price at ₦7,759.38. Rising LPG prices add to the cost-of-living crisis, which can further deteriorate the welfare of citizens. Hence, there is a need to make LPG more affordable for Nigerian households. To do this, the government needs to invest in domestic refining and natural gas processing to reduce reliance on imports, which helps stabilise prices