Publications

Poverty reduction has beena crucial issue at the centre of global policy development in recent years. Hence, the urgent drive to eradicate extreme poverty has drawn upon different approaches to poverty reduction(Ogun, 2010). One of which is the reduction of poverty through economic growth. The role of economic growth as a means to reduce poverty is one subject that has attracted a great deal of debate in the development sector. Persistent efforts to reduce the rate of poverty through economic growth and development, especially in developing countries, have not been effective in producing the desired result. This situation has raised many concerns and questions about the efficacy of economic growth in reducing poverty (Roemer and Gugerty, 1997). Several economists and scholars have given various assumptions and opinions on the subject matter. Many economists believe that economic growth benefits all citizens of a country by enhancing and improving living standards. Hence, growth is essential for poverty reduction (Dollar et al., 2013). Other critics believe that, instead of being an incentive for poverty reduction, economic growth has resulted in worse socio-economic outcomes that increase poverty (Stephen and Simoen, 2013). Still, others maintain that economic growth has no direct impact or contribution to reducing poverty (Aigbokhan, 2000; Sahn and Younger, 2003).However, it is necessary to point out that these scholars and economists have reached their conclusions based on the theoretical and empirical studies conducted in countries with varied economic structures. As such, the result of findings may be peculiar to specific countries, regions, and continents. It is, therefore, essential to note that the prevailing economic situation in a country determines to a large extent, the effect and impact economic growth will have on poverty reduction in that country (Ebunoluwa and Yusuf, 2018). While some countries like South Korea, Malaysia, and Hong Kong have experienced a significant decrease in poverty as a result of rapid economic growth (Mulok et al., 2012), countries like Nigeria still battle with high rates of poverty despite significant economic growth.Poverty is one of the main challenges facing the world today. It refers to an individual’s inability to afford basic needs or attain a minimum standard of living (Oyekale, 2011). Most recent statistics on world poverty by the World Bank show that about 734million individuals live below the poverty line of $1.90 per day (World Bank, 2020). The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) also reports that nearly 1.3billion individuals are multidimensionally poor with deprivations in health, education, standards of living, and economic opportunities (UNDP, 2018).

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According to National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data, Nigeria’s mineral production in 2021 was 89.48 million tons, which indicates a 39.19 percent improvement over the 64.29 million tons produced in 2020.¹ Granite, laterite, limestone, and sand are the most mined products. At the state level, the top three producing states were Ogun, Kogi, and Cross River, mining 32.04 million tons, 18.40 million tons, and 11.64 million tons of minerals, respectively, while Borno state produced the least with only 231,000 tons. Given the urgent need to optimise all available mineral resources to create jobs and improve people’s living conditions, the improvement in performance needs to be sustained. Therefore, policies should target attracting more investment in the sector whilst promoting the processing and export of the mined mineral products to maintain and sustain high growth. Consequently, the government would need to create investment incentives to help actualise the desired development for the sector, which is to contribute 3 percent of GDP by 2025, as conceived in the National Development Plans (NDP).

The recently released 2021 Electronic-payment Fact Sheet by the Nigerian Interbank Settlement System (NIBSS) shows that Nigerian banks had a total of 191.4 million bank accounts in 2021, out of which 133.5 million were active, suggesting that a total of 57.9 million were inactive.¹ Further information provided revealed that the number of bank accounts increased by 24.4 million (14.6 percent) from 167.0 million in 2020 to 191.4 million in 2021. However, the number of active bank accounts increased by a less amount, 18.7 million, from 114.8 million in 2020 to 133.5 million in 2021. Consequently, inactive accounts increased by 5.7 million, from 52.2 million in 2020 to 57.9 million in 2021. The weak economic situation, which is reflected in high inflation, high unemployment, and continued depreciation of the domestic currency, contributes partly to the rising number of inactive bank accounts. Consequently, improving economic conditions would help tackle the rising inactive bank accounts in the country.

In line with the provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) on July 16 was transformed into a new entity and regulated under the provision of the Companies and Allied Matters Act (CAMA).² As a result, NNPC was transited to Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Limited) as a private entity without government interferences and free from regulations such as the Treasury Single Account (TSA), public procurement, and Fiscal Responsibility Act. The transition seeks to strengthen the capacity and market relevance of the country’s oil industry. Although, the transition promises to enable optimal performance of the country’s entire petroleum industry, concerns still hover as there are seemingly no defined strategies on how the new structure intends to deal with the industry’s legacy issues that include extant liability, compulsory commitment to frontier exploration, political interferences (especially as the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Petroleum Resources remain key shareholders), and loss-making subsidiaries. Under this new framework, there is a need for NNPC Limited to have robust funding and operating strategies necessary to compete favourably with domestic and global energy industries

The data from the June 2022 Money and Credit Statistics published by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) shows that the net credit to the economy rose to N57.3 trillion at the end of June 2022 from N48.5 trillion at the end of December 2021, indicating an 18.02 percent increase in the first half of 2022 (H1 ’22).³ Credit to the government accounts for about 31.4 percent of total credit, while the private sector received the remaining. The banking sector credit to the government grew by 35.04 percent from N13.3 trillion as of December 2021 to N18.0 trillion at the end of June 2022. Further, the credit to the private sector grew by 11.58 percent from N35.2 trillion as of December 2021 to N39.3 trillion at the end of June 2022. This suggests that banking sector credit to the government grew at a higher rate compared to the private sector. The rise in credit to the government is consistent with the rise in government debt, which raises a concern about the crowding out effect of government borrowing in the domestic financial market on the ability of the private firms to secure funding for productive investments. Consequently, there is a need for the government to boost revenue collection and promote the use of innovative financing options to effectively fund the rising expenditure and curtail the rate of borrowing in the domestic financial market. In addition, there is a need for the government to prevent the mismanagement of borrowed funds by strengthening transparency in the debt management process. 

Drawing from a robust identification strategy and household panel data collected before and after households were exposed to the Boko Haram conflict, this paper addresses the question of whether resilience capacity is an important factor in mitigating household risks of food insecurity due to conflict shocks. Using the non-parametric difference-in-differences framework, the paper identifies that the shocks negatively affect food security, but resilience capacity attenuates the effects. While resilience actively protects households from the adverse stressors, the paper observes that the pillars of resilience were also significantly decimated by the conflict, thereby weakening households’ long-run capacity to withstand future shocks. The results are prescriptively unchanged after adjusting the operating spatial distance of exposure or switching the measure of conflict exposure to conflict intensity represented as battle fatalities. These estimates align well with the various hypotheses of the resilience approach to sustainable development. It is, therefore, recommended that conflict intervention programs incorporate rebuilding resilience, which might help restore households’ ability to overcome future shocks.

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According to the latest transport fare watch by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the average cost of air transport was N55,906.86 in May 2022, an increase of 52.95 percent from N36,552.70 paid in May 2021.⁴ Similarly, the cost of an inter-city bus journey stood at N3,668.64, suggesting an increase of 47.3 percent from N2,490.60 a year ago. The rise in transport costs is partly due to the hike in energy prices, the short supply of petroleum products and currency depreciation. The rising cost of transportation would feed into general price increases, lowering people’s purchasing power and eroding their standard of living. In the interim, there is a need for the government to dialogue with the private sector in designing frameworks that would improve the supply of petroleum products. In the medium term, the government should prioritise implementing the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) to attract investors to invest in new refineries to increase the supply of refined petroleum products, thereby reducing the country’s reliance on other countries for its energy products. This intervention would minimise the effects of currency depreciation on energy prices.

Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) shows that at the end of the first half of 2022 (H1 2022), Nigeria's external reserves stood at US$39.16 billion.3 This indicates th at the external reserves grew by 1.8 percent from US$38.48 billion at the beginning of the month (June 1). At mid-year, the external reserve is 3.3 percent lower than the US$40.52 billion recorded at the beginning of the year (Ja n uary 2022). The half-year decline in the external reserves despite rising oil prices is partly due to low crude oil production and CBN intervention in the foreign exchange market. To increase external reserves, the government needs to implement reforms that would increase non-oil exporting firms' productivity and competitiveness in the international market. Thus, increasing export earnings. With increased export earnings, the need for the CBN to intervene in the foreign exchange market to stabilise the domestic currency would be minimal.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that in the first quarter of 2022, Nigeria’s value-added tax (VAT) collected by the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) stood at N588.6 billion, representing an 18.6 percent increase compared to the N496.5 billion collected in Q1 2021.³ Decomposing the aggregate VAT revenue by classification indicates that local non-import VAT accounted for about 58.5 percent of total VAT in the period under review. Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) – import VAT accounted for 21.5 percent of total VAT, and Foreign non-import VAT accounted for 20 percent. Further analysis of the local non-import VAT shows that the manufacturing, information and communications (ICTs), and mining and quarrying sectors had the highest contributions, accounting for 32.8 percent, 17.1 percent, and 11.9 percent, respectively. While the increased VAT collection is a welcome development, considering the revenue projection of the government and rising expenditure in the post-COVID economy, the government needs to optimise all available revenue sources, including VAT. Consequently, there is a need for the government to frequently evaluate the tax automation strategies to identify areas for improvement to reduce tax evasion and ensure greater compliance by the companies.