Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

The Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTB) issuance calendar for the third quarter of 2025 revealed that the Federal Government plans to raise ₦1.76 billion through NTB auctions in response to a total of ₦1.98 billion in maturing obligations over the period. This planned borrowing is a step towards the ongoing efforts to manage liquidity and refinance short-term debt amid fiscal pressures. The issuance programme is spread across the 91-day, 182-day, and 364-day tenures, with the 364-day instrument accounting for the bulk of the offer at ₦1.19 billion, signalling a preference for locking in longer-term funds at prevailing interest rates. The 91-day and 182-day instruments are expected to raise ₦340 million and ₦230 million, respectively. According to the auction calendar, active issuances are concentrated in July and August, with relatively fewer maturities and offerings scheduled for September. This borrowing plan continues a trend of leveraging the domestic money market to manage the government’s short-term funding needs while maintaining investor confidence through regular auctions. However, while it provides temporary fiscal relief, it also highlights structural fiscal challenges, including the rising cost of debt servicing and limited revenue growth. To improve long-term fiscal sustainability, there is a growing need to complement these short-term borrowing efforts with broader public finance reforms. Key areas include enhancing non-oil revenue mobilisation, rationalising recurrent expenditure, and deepening the domestic debt market to include longer-term instruments that reduce refinancing risks and promote macroeconomic stability. 

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) reiterated the soundness of the country’s banking sector in June 2025 while announcing time-bound transitional measures for a few institutions still adjusting to the withdrawal of temporary regulatory support introduced during the COVID-19 period. These steps are part of the broader implementation of the 2023 recapitalisation programme, which aimed to strengthen the financial sector in line with Nigeria’s long-term economic development objectives. The report indicated that most banks have either met or are well on track to meet the new capital requirements ahead of the March 31, 2026, deadline. For the few banks still in transition, the CBN has placed temporary restrictions on capital distributions such as dividends and bonuses to encourage earnings retention and reinforce capital buffers. These adjustments align with global regulatory norms and are consistent with similar practices in developed economies. Nigeria’s capital framework continues to exceed global Basel III standards, reflecting the CBN’s conservative approach to financial oversight. To maintain momentum, the CBN should consider supporting affected banks with technical assistance to accelerate compliance without undermining confidence in the sector.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics' (NBS) Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) report, the average price of PMS, commonly known as petrol, stood at ₦1,027.76 in May 2025. This represents a 17.07% decrease from the ₦1,239.33 month-on-month (MoM) in April 2025 but remains 33.54% higher than the ₦769.62 year-on-year (YoY) recorded in May 2024, indicating continued pressure on consumers. At the state level, Sokoto recorded the highest average price at N1,100.50, followed by Zamfara at ₦1,093.21 and Anambra at ₦1,084.13. Meanwhile, Yobe (₦950.60), Rivers (₦981.67), and Taraba (₦983.00) had the lowest average prices. Furthermore, zonal analysis showed that the Southeast recorded the highest average price at ₦1,049.15, while the North Central zone had the lowest at ₦1,005.42. Although the month-on-month decline may suggest some relief, petrol prices remain significantly high compared to the previous year, posing a sustained burden on transportation costs, business operations, and household spending. To address this, the government should prioritise expanding domestic refining capacity and reducing distribution costs to bring long-term stability to fuel prices. At the same time, supporting affordable public transport and ensuring consistent fuel supply across regions can help ease immediate pressure on households and businesses. 

The National Bureau of Statistics' (NBS) Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) Price Watch report for May 2025 revealed that the average retail price for refilling a 5kg Cylinder of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (Cooking Gas) rose month-on-month by 3.57%, climbing from ₦7,885.60 in April 2025 to ₦8,167.43 in May 2025. Compared to the same period last year, the price surged by 10.10%, up from ₦7,418.45 in May 2024. A closer look at the state-level average price for refilling a 5kg cylinder of LPG highlights notable disparities, as Abia recorded the highest average price at ₦9,181.20, closely followed by Ebonyi and Rivers states, with prices of ₦9,177.32 and ₦9,174.40, respectively. Conversely, Oyo state offered the most affordable price at ₦7,116.49, with Niger and Plateau states also among the lower-priced states at ₦7,142.07 and ₦7,177.10, respectively. When analysed by geopolitical zones, the South-South zone recorded the highest average retail price (₦8,760.51), followed by the South-East at ₦8,724.70. The North-Central zone reported the lowest average price at ₦7,759.38. Rising LPG prices add to the cost-of-living crisis, which can further deteriorate the welfare of citizens. Hence, there is a need to make LPG more affordable for Nigerian households. To do this, the government needs to invest in domestic refining and natural gas processing to reduce reliance on imports, which helps stabilise prices

In June 2025, business confidence in Nigeria rose, with the overall Confidence Index increasing to 20.7 index points from previous months, reflecting continued optimism among firms about the macroeconomic outlook.