Nigeria Economic Update, Issue 49

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) November Monthly Oil Market report indicated that Nigeria’s average daily crude oil production (based on direct communication) for October 2025 increased by 0.8% (11,000 bpd), rising from 1.390 million barrels per day in September to 1.401 million bpd in October 2025. Despite this modest increase, production remained 6.6% below Nigeria’s OPEC quota of 1.5 million bpd and 31.9% below its target of 2.06 million bpd. These gaps indicate that Nigeria continues to face challenges in fully restoring crude oil production, despite recent investments and government-led efforts in the upstream sector. Falling short of its OPEC quota puts pressure on foreign exchange earnings, given that the sales of crude oil remain the country’s primary revenue source. However, the slight increase in output indicates a cautious yet promising recovery, which could enhance fiscal conditions if the momentum is sustained. To build on this progress, Nigeria should focus on repairing and upgrading critical oil infrastructure, securing production sites against vandalism and oil theft, and attracting consistent investment to boost output and move closer to its production targets. ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT + Quarterly Indicators