Nigeria Economic Update, Issue 43

The October 2025 report from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) indicated that Nigeria's oil production declined by 0.045 million barrels per day (bpd), falling from 1.434 million bpd in August 2025 to 1.39 million bpd in September 2025. This represents a 3.1% decline and marks the second consecutive month of reduced output, bringing the average third-quarter production to 1.444 million bpd – down 2.5% from 1.481 million bpd in the second quarter. The production level is 7.3% below Nigeria’s OPEC quota of 1.5 million bpd and 33.8% below the national target of 2.1 million bpd. This consecutive decline in output is particularly concerning, given the nation's reliance on crude oil as its primary source of revenue.According to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), a three-day strike by the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) contributed to the decline in oil production in September. To mitigate the risks associated with fluctuating oil revenues, policymakers should prioritise reforms that enhance alternative revenue sources, including the effective implementation of the tax reform bill.Restoring and efficiently operating local refineries will increase revenue and strengthen economic resilience. Furthermore, diversifying the economy away from oil by investing in sectors such as technology, mining, and agriculture, supported by loan incentives and capacity building for MSMEs in these sectors, will promote sustainable growth.