Nigeria Economic Update, Issue 38

According to the National Bureau of Statistics’ GDP Report for Q2 2025, Nigeria’s real GDP grew by 4.23% year-on-year, higher than the 3.48% recorded in Q2 2024 and above the 3.13% reported after the rebasing in Q1 2025. Aggregate nominal GDP stood at ₦100.73 trillion, up by 19.23% from ₦84.48 trillion in the same quarter of 2024. In the quarter under review, the oil sector recorded strong growth of 20.46%, a sharp rebound from 1.87% in Q1 2025 and higher than the 10.08% in Q2 2024, supported by increased crude oil production at 1.68 million barrels per day. Similarly, the non-oil sector grew by 3.64% in real terms, driven by agriculture, telecommunications, real estate, finance, trade, and construction. Growth in the agricultural sector stood at 2.82%, an improvement from the 2.60% recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2024. Furthermore, growth in the industrial sector reached 7.45% in Q2 2025, up from 3.72% in Q2 2024, contributing 17.31% to aggregate GDP compared to 16.79% in the same quarter of 2024. The services sector also recorded growth of 3.94%, compared to 3.83% in Q2 2024. This improved performance occurred largely due to stronger oil output and resilient non-oil activity. However, it also implies that while the non-oil sector has shown resilience, the oil sector’s rebound remains vulnerable to disruptions in global oil prices. Furthermore, the 2.82% growth in agriculture remains below the sector’s potential, with negative implications for food security, employment, and inflation management. Therefore, there is a need for the government to invest more in local agricultural production, focusing on mechanisation and improved access to finance for smallholder farmers and the provision of improved seedlings and technical support, among others.