Nigeria Economic Update, Issue 12

According to the Central Bank of Nigeria, Nigeria recorded a lower balance of payments surplus of US$2.67 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared with US$4.60 billion in the third quarter, indicating a moderation in external sector performance during the period. The current account balance also declined sharply to US$1.40 billion from US$4.06 billion in the Q3 2025, largely as a result of a weaker goods account balance, lower crude oil and refined petroleum exports, higher non-oil imports, and increased net outflows in the primary income account. The goods account balance fell to US$1.77 billion from US$4.53 billion, as crude oil exports declined to US$6.77 billion while non-oil imports rose to US$8.77 billion. At the same time, the secondary income account improved to US$6.21 billion, supported by an increase in workers’ remittances to US$5.72 billion, while the financial account recorded higher net borrowing of US$1.96 billion, driven mainly by increased portfolio investment liabilities of US$5.27 billion. Despite the weaker current account position, external reserves increased to US$45.75 billion at the end of December 2025, up from US$42.77 billion at the end of September 2025. Overall, the fourth quarter outcome highlights the continued vulnerability of the Nigerian economy to export volatility and rising import pressures. It also underscores the need to strengthen non-oil export performance, improve the resilience of the external sector, and sustain measures that support reserve accumulation and broader macroeconomic stability.