Nigeria Economic Update, Issue 11

According to the National Bureau of Statistics’ (NBS) Q4 2025 Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics, Nigeria’s total merchandise trade stood at ₦36,214.34 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, representing a decline of 1.07% from the ₦36,604.83 billion recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2024 and a decrease of 8.94% from ₦39,771.47 billion in the third quarter of 2025. This decline was driven largely by a fall in crude oil exports. Despite the decline in overall trade, the merchandise trade balance remained positive at ₦1,712.48 billion, indicating continued resilience in the external sector.During the quarter under review, total exports were valued at ₦18,963.41 billion, accounting for 52.36% of total merchandise trade, while imports amounted to ₦17,250.93 billion, representing 47.64% of total trade. Imports also increased by 3.98% from ₦16,590.51 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024 and by 1.73% from ₦16,957.90 billion in the third quarter of 2025. Crude oil remained the dominant export commodity, valued at ₦9,702.87 billion, and accounting for 51.17% of total exports. While the positive trade balance suggests some degree of external-sector strength, the decline in total merchandise trade underscores the economy’s continued vulnerability to fluctuations in global oil prices and domestic production levels. Moreover, the rise in imports alongside declining exports points to increasing demand for foreign goods relative to domestic output, a trend that could place further pressure on the trade balance over time. In light of these factors, policy should focus on strengthening non-oil export performance through improved domestic production capacity, higher competitiveness, and greater value addition. At the same time, efforts to support local industries and reduce import dependence will be essential for improving trade sustainability and strengthening the resilience of the economy.