Consumer prices for the month of December 2019 increased by 0.13 percentage points from the preceding month which stood at 11.85% 1. This rate was 0.54% percentage points higher than December 2018. The rise in inflation was driven by a rise across all components, with the core sub-index growing by 0.34% to 9.33% and food sub-index by 0.19% to 14.67% over a month. The rise in inflation was driven in part by an increase in access to credit, as indicated in the Central Bank of Nigeria Credit Condition Survey. The survey conducted notes that there was an increase in supply of secured loans to households which was expected to increase in Q1 2020 as well as a rise in overall credit supply to the corporate sector2. Inflation is expected to rise in the coming months given that the closure of the Nigeria-Benin border has driven food prices upwards resulting in cost-push inflation. In addition, the CBN’s directive to commercial banks to give out 60% of their deposits as loans to the real sector could potentially lead to demand-pull inflation. Given that food inflation is at the core of the rising inflation, initiatives should be put in place by both state and non-state actors to increase the productivity of farmers in order to transition farmers from smallholder to large-scale farming.
February 11, 2020
Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 04)
Related
Rising Inflation: Will The MPC Raise The Policy Rate Or Support Economic Growth
This brief examines global and domestic developments in
Nigeria as well as the effect of slowdown in economic growth of key oil
consuming nations on the Nigerian economy.
Nigeria Economic Update(Issue 31)
Recent data on Consumer
Price Index (CPI) indicates significant increase in general price level for the
sixth consecutive month. Headline inflation increased by 0.9 percentage points from
15.6 per cent recorded in May to 16.5 percent in June the highest
rate recorded since October 2005 (an 11-year high). The core sub-index
increased from 15.1 percent to 16.2 percent while the food sub-index stood at
15.3 percent, an increase of 0.4 percent from the preceding month of May. Higher
prices of domestic/imported food and other items, as well as increased energy
cost were major drivers of the increase. This is probably explained by the
exchange-rate pass-through, given the significant depreciation of the naira.
Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 35)
Recent report in the media highlights that Nigerias
GDP has dropped to $296 billion in 2016, in contrast to the $481 billion
recorded in 20151 and Nigeria has lost its position as Africas
largest economy to South Africa. This conclusion was based on the computation
of GDP with current naira-dollar exchange rate. However, while the naira has
significantly lost its official value since the adoption of a flexible exchange
rate, estimating GDP merely with a single exchange rate figure (rather than its
yearly average) cannot be regarded as an appropriate method to conclude on Africas
largest economy.