February 11, 2020

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 04)

Consumer prices for the month of December 2019 increased by 0.13 percentage points from the preceding month which stood at 11.85% 1. This rate was 0.54% percentage points higher than December 2018. The rise in inflation was driven by a rise across all components, with the core sub-index growing by 0.34% to 9.33% and food sub-index by 0.19% to 14.67% over a month. The rise in inflation was driven in part by an increase in access to credit, as indicated in the Central Bank of Nigeria Credit Condition Survey. The survey conducted notes that there was an increase in supply of secured loans to households which was expected to increase in Q1 2020 as well as a rise in overall credit supply to the corporate sector2. Inflation is expected to rise in the coming months given that the closure of the Nigeria-Benin border has driven food prices upwards resulting in cost-push inflation. In addition, the CBN’s directive to commercial banks to give out 60% of their deposits as loans to the real sector could potentially lead to demand-pull inflation. Given that food inflation is at the core of the rising inflation, initiatives should be put in place by both state and non-state actors to increase the productivity of farmers in order to transition farmers from smallholder to large-scale farming. 

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Nigeria Economic Update(Issue 31)

Recent data on Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicates significant increase in general price level for the sixth consecutive month. Headline inflation increased by 0.9 percentage points from 15.6 per cent recorded in May to 16.5 percent in June the highest rate recorded since October 2005 (an 11-year high). The core sub-index increased from 15.1 percent to 16.2 percent while the food sub-index stood at 15.3 percent, an increase of 0.4 percent from the preceding month of May. Higher prices of domestic/imported food and other items, as well as increased energy cost were major drivers of the increase. This is probably explained by the exchange-rate pass-through, given the significant depreciation of the naira.