The 2017 budget implementation report shows a paltry average performance in 2017, compared to the projections contained in the budget. The actual oil and non-oil revenue generated were N1.1 trillion and N957 billion respectively, considerably below the projected figures of N2.1 trillion1 and N1.4 trillion. Other revenue sources brought the total revenue generated to N2.7 trillion. However, on the expenditure side, the combination of personnel expenditure and debt repayments amounted to N3.5 trillion, which exceeded total revenue by N885 billion. This implies that Nigeria borrowed to pay salaries and service debts in 2017. As long as the culture of making unrealistic budget projections continues, we expect to record low budget implementation going forward. To address the wide gap between actual and expected budget performance, better forecast of future revenue alongside making less ambitious spending plans is critical.
Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates
Recently released data by the Debt Management Office reveals a further increase in Nigerias debt stock as at the end of 2017Q3. Total debt stock stood at N20.37 trillion as at September 20172, increasing by 3.75 percent Quarter-over- Quarter and 20.67 percent Year-on-Year. External debts rose 2 percent to N4.69 trillion, while domestic debts (FGN and States) grew by 4.3 percent to N15.68 trillion both accounting for approximately 23 percent and 77 percent of total debt stock respectively. Obviously, Nigerias increasing debt accumulation at a rate faster than GDP growth rate, clearly exacerbates difficulties in meeting debt repayment and sustainability of debt servicing measures. The recent borrowing surge should be utilized to provide socially viable and profitable infrastructure so as to minimize the future debt burden.
Available data from NBS shows that Aviation sub-sector of the transport sector grew by o.15 percent in real terms in 2017Q2 down from 1.53 percent in 2017Q15. The decline is likely attributable to fall in year-on-year passenger and aircraft movement in the sub-sector, following increased air fare charges.
This report provides an evidence-based analysis of the state of the Nigerian economy in a bid to inform economic policies in Nigeria. The report presents some analyses of significant economic events in Nigeria within the period, and provides an outlook on what policymakers, businesses, and individuals should expect in subsequent quarters of 2016. It also provides valuable insights into potential drivers of the economic trends and outlines expectations for subsequent quarters of the year. The area of focus are Global Economic Performance, Domestic Economic Performance, External Sector Performance, and Sectoral Performance.
This brief aims to deepen stakeholders understanding of the sources of funding and how money is allocated to and spent in the social sectors of health and education, which are critical for pro-poor growth and poverty alleviation.