Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

October 4, 2018

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 38)

The 2017 budget implementation report shows a paltry average performance in 2017, compared to the projections contained in the budget. The actual oil and non-oil revenue generated were N1.1 trillion and N957 billion respectively, considerably below the projected figures of N2.1 trillion1 and N1.4 trillion. Other revenue sources brought the total revenue generated to N2.7 […]

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The 2017 budget implementation report shows a paltry average performance in 2017, compared to the projections contained in the budget. The actual oil and non-oil revenue generated were N1.1 trillion and N957 billion respectively, considerably below the projected figures of N2.1 trillion1 and N1.4 trillion. Other revenue sources brought the total revenue generated to N2.7 trillion. However, on the expenditure side, the combination of personnel expenditure and debt repayments amounted to N3.5 trillion, which exceeded total revenue by N885 billion. This implies that Nigeria borrowed to pay salaries and service debts in 2017. As long as the culture of making unrealistic budget projections continues, we expect to record low budget implementation going forward. To address the wide gap between actual and expected budget performance, better forecast of future revenue alongside making less ambitious spending plans is critical.




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Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 10)

Nigerias inflation rate remained above CBNs bandwidth of 6-9 per cent. Specifically, the inflation rate increased slightly from 9.55 percent in December 2015 to 9.62 percent in January 20165. The Core sub-index remains the main driver of inflation in Nigeria. The higher prices of items in the Core sub-index such as clothing and foot wears are reflective of higher domestic production costs as a result of the decline in the value of the naira relative to the dollar. However, in the period, the price increase was moderated by the stable price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS). Going forward, without any sustainable policy measure to prevent the further depreciation of the naira, inflation may exceed the current single digit inflation rate in the near term.

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 21)

Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that the value of capital imported to Nigeria declined by 54.34 percent; from $1.56 billion 2015Q4to $710.97 million in 2016Q11. This is the lowest value since the data was first released in 2007. Huge declines in Portfolio Investment (71.54 percent) and other Investment (44.84 percent) were the major drivers of the trend within the period. A myriad of factors have contributed to the decline in investments. The plunge in crude oil prices, and the resultant negative signals on investors confidence, was a key factor. This was exacerbated by the FOREX restrictions and delays in the assentation of 2016 Appropriation Bill. While the slight increases in oil prices and the recent signing of the budget into law could improve the general economic prospects, monetary authorities need to proffer solutions to the negative effects of the current FOREX restrictions on investments.

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 21)

Nigerias domestic crude production increased significantly in April 2017. OPECs Month-on-Month data shows a 22.6 percent increase to 1.5 million barrels per day constituting the biggest increase among oil producing group. Crude production increased at the backdrop of completion of scheduled maintenance/repairs at the Bonga oil field, implying resumption of crude production by an additional 225,000 barrels. Remarkably, Nigeria is progressively moving towards meeting daily output benchmark/target (2.2 million barrels per day). Given recent boost in domestic crude oil production, considerable effort should be made to improve the countrys refining capacity in order to reduce fuel importation and conserve foreign exchange.