Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

May 18, 2017

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 18)

Recent Data released by the Nigeria Bureau
of Statistics reveals an increase in total public debt stock between 2015 and
2016. Foreign and domestic debt stock stood at $11.4 billion and N14.0 trillion
respectively as at December 2016, from $10.7 billion and N10.5
trillionrecorded as at December 2015. Disaggregated
data shows that foreign debt sources comprised Multilateral ($8.0 billion),
Bilateral ($0.2 billion) and Exim bank of China ($3.2 billion); domestic
sources included government bonds, treasury bills and bonds. The federal
government and states accounted for 68.7% and 31.3% respectively of foreign
debt stock; 78.9% and 21.1% respectively of domestic debt stock. This maybe
particularly at the backdrop of government borrowings in 2016 to finance its
expenditure (mostly recurrent).

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Regional Trade For Inclusive Development In West Africa

This study examines the potential of regional trade in facilitating the achievement of inclusive development in the West African region. It employs descriptive analysis to examine the nature, composition and dimension of ECOWAS trade within the group and with the rest of the world, vis--vis three other Regional Economic Communities (RECs) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). From the preliminary study, it can be observed that the growth rate of West African economies is increasing, but the rising economic growth does not translate to improvement in inclusive development, as there was no significant reduction in poverty levels in the region. Further evidence reveals that extra-regional trade of the region is increasing at a very high rate, and also at a disproportionate rate with intra-regional trade, compared with SADC. This indicates the existence of opportunity to boost regional trade for inclusive development through conversion of part of the extra-regional trade into regional trade.

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 18)

Inflation rate continued its upward trajectory in the week under review. Specifically, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 1.39 per cent, from 11.38 per cent in February to 12.77 per cent in March, 20161. Remarkably, this is the highest rate since July 2012, representing a 4-year high. While both components of the CPI rose in the period, the food sub-index was largely the main driver of the increase in the CPI, with a growth rate of 1.39 per cent between February and March. The persistent scarcity in petroleum products, especially Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), has increased transportation costs and the price of food items.

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 10)

Nigerias inflation rate remained above CBNs bandwidth of 6-9 per cent. Specifically, the inflation rate increased slightly from 9.55 percent in December 2015 to 9.62 percent in January 20165. The Core sub-index remains the main driver of inflation in Nigeria. The higher prices of items in the Core sub-index such as clothing and foot wears are reflective of higher domestic production costs as a result of the decline in the value of the naira relative to the dollar. However, in the period, the price increase was moderated by the stable price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS). Going forward, without any sustainable policy measure to prevent the further depreciation of the naira, inflation may exceed the current single digit inflation rate in the near term.

Consequences Of School Resources For Educational Achievement

This paper examines the determinants of educational achievement in a developing country context, Burkina Faso. We deviate from the extant literature by constructing an aggregate index of school quality from the observable school resources. Also, we account for school choice constraints, faced by children especially in rural areas, as it relates to the geographical inequalities in the distribution of quality schools. These treatments provide an unbiased estimates of the relevance of school resources for academic performance. The empirical approach is based on a two-stage procedure that accounts for supply constraints in school choice.