October 5, 2020

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 37)

A recently conducted study by the World Bank shows that the cost of mortality and morbidity due to air pollution from exposure to fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅) stood at $2.1 billion or N631 billion (0.5% of Nigeria’s GDP).2 Lagos state has an exceedingly high concentration of PM₂.₅, at annual mean concentration  of levels of 68μg/m³ which exceed the World Health Organization (WHO)’s guideline for the annual mean PM₂.₅ level of 10μg/m³. Consequently, 11,200 people die from air pollution with 60 percent of the deaths under the age of 5. Sources of air pollution in the state include, road transport, heavy energy dependence on inefficient diesel and gasoline generators due to unreliable power, poor waste management, polluting fuel and stoves for household cooking etc. Air pollution is injurious to human health especially those that are already vulnerable – children, elderly, or people with existing health problems. In addition, it increases the rate of cardiovascular and respiratory ailments as well as mortality rates in the economy. Intrinsically, the life expectancy is reduced by air pollution. Therefore, to curtail these effects, low emission vehicles should be adopted and old generators should be discarded. Thus, they should be replaced with a better source of power such as renewable source of energy.

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Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 23)

Recent Data on Nigerias Real GDP growth rate (Year-on-Year) declined by 2.47 percentage points, from 2.11 per cent in 2015Q4 to -0.36 percent in 2016Q11. This is the lowest GDP growth rate since 2004Q2 (-0.81 percent). The Oil sector continued to contract, as -1.89 percent growth was recorded in 2016Q1. The negative growth witnessed in the oil sector was likely driven by the fall in global oil prices by $9.732 and decline in domestic crude oil production, relative to preceding quarter. Similarly, the Non-oil sector witnessed a negative growth as it declined by 3.32 percentage points from 3.14 percent in 2015 Q4 to -0.18 percent in 2016Q1. The underperformance in the non-oil sector was driven by significant contractions in financial (by 17.69 percent), manufacturing (by 8.77 percent), and real estate (by 5.48 percent) sub-sectors. Given that the present economic fundamentals point to a likely recession in 2016Q2, the government can stir economic activities by speeding up the budget implementation process to spur growth in the non-oil sector and the economy at large. More so, the domestic production shock in the oil sector needs to be addressed to effectively leverage on the present marginal rise in crude oil prices.