Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

April 4, 2017

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 12)

The Naira sustained its appreciation trajectory at the parallel market in the review week. Precisely, naira gained 13.3 percent (Week-on-Week) to exchange at N390/$ on March 24, 2017. Reduced pressure on the naira followed moderation in speculative activities as a result of increased forex sales and intervention by the CBN (daily intervention of $1.5 million at the interbank market.) The aim of CBN interventions (narrowing the gap between interbank and parallel market rates) seems to be on course with the continued appreciation of the naira at alternative markets. While current approach of the apex bank proves effective in improving international value of naira in the short term, however, it is expedient that the bank articulates clear and credible flexible exchange rate policy to sustain the momentum and enhance confidence in the forex market in the medium term. Nonetheless, the sustainability of the exchange rate gains is partly dependent on the prospect of crude oil price and production which is outside the purview of the monetary authorities.

Download Label
March 13, 2018 - 4:00 am
application/pdf
498.16 kB
v.1.7 (stable)

Related

 

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 8)

Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that total capital importation in 2015 fell steeply by 53.5 per cent from $20,750.76 million in 2014 to $9,643.01 million in 20152. This decline was largely driven by a substantial drop in portfolio investment (the largest component of Capital Inflows), which fell by 59.74 percent. The exclusion of Nigeria from the JP Morgan EM Bond index, the slump in crude oil prices, the decision of the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates and the capital control measures imposed by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) are the notable drivers of the reduced inflow of capital. Going forward, improving the business environment, especially easing foreign exchange controls, would determine the extent to which the economy can attract increased capital inflows.

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 41)

The naira continued its downward trajectory in the review week. Specifically, naira depreciated significantly at the parallel segment by 3.5 percent to a record low of N440/$ on September 23, 2016. Notably, this was driven by the worsening liquidity constraints at the interbank market which left the excess forex demand to be sourced at the parallel market, and thus exerted downward pressure on the naira. The naira is likely to further weaken given that most of the liquidity constraints are exogenously determined and thus forex supply will likely remain subdued by its demand.