Consumer prices for the month of December 2019 increased by 0.13 percentage points from the preceding month which stood at 11.85% 1. As such, inflation has increased for four consecutive months and the current rate is 0.54% percentage points higher than the inflation rate in December 2018. The rise in inflation was driven by a rise across all components, with the core sub-index growing by 0.34% to 9.33% and food sub-index by 0.19% to 14.67% over a month. The rising inflation is underscored by an increase in access to credit, as indicated in the Central Bank of Nigeria Credit Condition Survey. The survey conducted notes that there was an increase in supply of secured loans to households which was expected to increase in Q1 2020 as well as a rise in overall credit supply to the corporate sector2. In addition, the closure of the Nigeria-Benin border is likely to have driven food prices up due to a reduced supply of staple foods including rice and frozen food. Going forward, we expect a continuous rise in inflation as government directives to close the border and increase lending to the private sector are in effect
February 4, 2020
Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 03)
Related
Africa Economic Update (Issue 6)
Available data shows that headline inflation reduced in most countries in the region in May 2017 relative to preceding months. Notably, headline inflation decreased in Nigeria (16.25 percent), Ghana (12.26 percent), Tanzania (6.1 percent), Senegal (1.8 percent), Namibia (6.3 percent) and Rwanda (11.7 percent), while it grew in South Africa (5.4 percent), Kenya (11.7 percent), Ethiopia (8.7 percent) and Uganda (7.2 percent). Cote dIvoire (-0.4 percent) recorded consumer price deflation. The decrease in consumer price in Nigeria, Tanzania and Ghana can be attributed to decreases in both food and non-food components of inflation. Regionally, all countries in Southern Africa recorded single digits inflation, however consumer price marginally increased in South Africa, for the first time in 2017 owing to spike in food prices6, and Botswana (both by 0.1 percent).
Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 29)
OPEC weekly basket
price decreased marginally from $45.95 on June 24, 2016 to $45.26 on July 1,
2016,while Nigerias bonny light fell by $1, from $48.90 to $47.91.
The apparent decline in crude oil price was driven by lingering market demand
uncertainty, following the unexpected Brexit referendum. More so, ease
in supply disruptions in Nigeria and Canada may have contributed to the
downward pressure on prices. Going forward, until there is greater regulatory
precision on global oil output levels, prices may likely remain stuck or continue
to exhibit a downward trend. Although, Nigerias fiscal constraints slightly
relaxed with oil production increasing in the review week (following repairs on
sabotaged pipeline channels), potential global crude oil oversupply threatens
governments revenues. However, oversupply threats could be reduced if there is
a consensus on oil production quotas in the upcoming OPEC meeting.