Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

August 19, 2017

Africa Economic Update (Issue 6)

Available data shows that headline inflation reduced in most countries in the region in May 2017 relative to preceding months. Notably, headline inflation decreased in Nigeria (16.25 percent), Ghana (12.26 percent), Tanzania (6.1 percent), Senegal (1.8 percent), Namibia (6.3 percent) and Rwanda (11.7 percent), while it grew in South Africa (5.4 percent), Kenya (11.7 percent), Ethiopia (8.7 percent) and Uganda (7.2 percent). Cote dIvoire (-0.4 percent) recorded consumer price deflation. The decrease in consumer price in Nigeria, Tanzania and Ghana can be attributed to decreases in both food and non-food components of inflation. Regionally, all countries in Southern Africa recorded single digits inflation, however consumer price marginally increased in South Africa, for the first time in 2017 owing to spike in food prices6, and Botswana (both by 0.1 percent).

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Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 18)

Recent Data released by the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics reveals an increase in total public debt stock between 2015 and 2016. Foreign and domestic debt stock stood at $11.4 billion and N14.0 trillion respectively as at December 2016, from $10.7 billion and N10.5 trillionrecorded as at December 2015. Disaggregated data shows that foreign debt sources comprised Multilateral ($8.0 billion), Bilateral ($0.2 billion) and Exim bank of China ($3.2 billion); domestic sources included government bonds, treasury bills and bonds. The federal government and states accounted for 68.7% and 31.3% respectively of foreign debt stock; 78.9% and 21.1% respectively of domestic debt stock. This maybe particularly at the backdrop of government borrowings in 2016 to finance its expenditure (mostly recurrent).

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 5)

The Naira continued to depreciate in the review week. At the parallel market, naira exchanged for N498/$ on January 27, 2017 and N500/$ on February 3, 2017. Despite the weekly sales of forex to BDCs and the significant improvements in the external reserves, the naira has continued to lose value to other currencies. The pressure on the naira has been triggered by escalating scarcity of forex in the spot market, likely due to forex hoarding. However, in the preceding week, the CBN sold $660 million in forwards contract in an attempt to manage liquidity and stabilize the naira. In the face of growing speculation in the parallel market, the monetary authority should institute mechanisms that would discourage excessive forex hoarding among licensed BDC operators. An initiative that monitors transaction dealings in the parallel market would go a long way in detecting erring BDC operators.

MANUFACTURING SECTOR: Operating Admist Economic Recession And Rising Foreign Exchange Rates

This 2017 Manufacturing Sector survey provides an assessment of the Nigerian manufacturing sector, highlighting the key challenges facing operators within the sector. It also examines the dynamics and major development in the manufacturing sector over the last one year. Overall, the objective of the report is to provide a snapshot of the manufacturing sector in Nigeria, which will provide a framework for policy intervention by policymakers