February 21, 2020

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 5)

The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) declined in January to 59.2, indicating a 2.63% fall from the month of December1. The slowdown in sectoral expansion was driven by a decline in the non-metallic mineral products, printing and related support activities. Similarly, slower growth was also observed in the non-manufacturing PMI which fell to 59.6, a 5% decline from the preceding month. In the same vein, the Confidence Index (CI) in the month of January which indicates the respondent’s level of optimism on the overall macroeconomy tapered at 28.3 index points. However, the outlook for February is more optimistic at 61.4 index points and is driven mainly by prospects in the service and industrial sectors2. Going forward, we expect that the drop in the PMI will be reversed, at least minimally, as banks continue to lend to the real sector. However, the extent to which the increment will be sustained will depend on inflation levels as well as job creation growth rate in the short to medium-term.

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Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 34)

Recently released report by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that Nigeria recorded remarkable Year-on-Year (YoY) and Quarter-over-Quarter (QoQ) increase in capital importation. Total capital importation stood at $1,792.3 million in 2017Q2, representing 72 percent YoY and 97 percent QoQ growths respectively. Disaggregated data points to portfolio investment as the dominant type of investment imported, with a value of $770.5 million, 43 percent of total capital importation. The increase in capital importation was driven by 145 percent QoQ surge in portfolio investment and a remarkable increase in capital imported through shares.