Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

July 8, 2016

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 29)

OPEC weekly basket
price decreased marginally from $45.95 on June 24, 2016 to $45.26 on July 1,
2016,while Nigerias bonny light fell by $1, from $48.90 to $47.91.
The apparent decline in crude oil price was driven by lingering market demand
uncertainty, following the unexpected Brexit referendum. More so, ease
in supply disruptions in Nigeria and Canada may have contributed to the
downward pressure on prices. Going forward, until there is greater regulatory
precision on global oil output levels, prices may likely remain stuck or continue
to exhibit a downward trend. Although, Nigerias fiscal constraints slightly
relaxed with oil production increasing in the review week (following repairs on
sabotaged pipeline channels), potential global crude oil oversupply threatens
governments revenues. However, oversupply threats could be reduced if there is
a consensus on oil production quotas in the upcoming OPEC meeting.

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Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 5)

The Naira continued to depreciate in the review week. At the parallel market, naira exchanged for N498/$ on January 27, 2017 and N500/$ on February 3, 2017. Despite the weekly sales of forex to BDCs and the significant improvements in the external reserves, the naira has continued to lose value to other currencies. The pressure on the naira has been triggered by escalating scarcity of forex in the spot market, likely due to forex hoarding. However, in the preceding week, the CBN sold $660 million in forwards contract in an attempt to manage liquidity and stabilize the naira. In the face of growing speculation in the parallel market, the monetary authority should institute mechanisms that would discourage excessive forex hoarding among licensed BDC operators. An initiative that monitors transaction dealings in the parallel market would go a long way in detecting erring BDC operators.