The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) declined in January to 59.2, indicating a 2.63% fall from the month of December1. The slowdown in sectoral expansion was driven by a decline in the non-metallic mineral products, printing and related support activities. Similarly, slower growth was also observed in the non-manufacturing PMI which fell to 59.6, a 5% decline from the preceding month. In the same vein, the Confidence Index (CI) in the month of January which indicates the respondent’s level of optimism on the overall macroeconomy tapered at 28.3 index points. However, the outlook for February is more optimistic at 61.4 index points and is driven mainly by prospects in the service and industrial sectors2. Going forward, we expect that the drop in the PMI will be reversed, at least minimally, as banks continue to lend to the real sector. However, the extent to which the increment will be sustained will depend on inflation levels as well as job creation growth rate in the short to medium-term.
February 21, 2020
Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 5)
Related
Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 17)
Power sector analysis shows a decline
in power generated by 8.5 percent from a peak of 3,675 mw to 3,362 mw between
April 3, 2016 and April 10, 20169. This record is however still
below 5,074.7 mw- the highest peak ever attained in the country. The declining
power supply which has been attributed to vandalism of pipelines and gas
shortages, has continued to distort economic activities in the country. With
the persistent fall in electricity generation, the possibility of attaining the
targeted 10,000 mw by 201910 seems unattainable. A clear strategy towards
increasing power generation and curbing vandalism is urgently needed.