Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 34)

The GDP growth rate in 2020Q2 was estimated to be -6.10%, the first negative growth since the recession in 2016/2017. The GDP declined by 8.22 percentage points from 1.87% to -6.10% between 2020Q1 and 2020Q2¹. The fall was largely driven by a slowdown in international and domestic activities occasioned by lockdown measures to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. Further disaggregation of the data shows that the non-oil sector GDP decreased by -6.05% (first negative decrease since 2017Q3). Also, the oil sector experienced a higher negative growth, declining by -6.63% within the same period. Contractions in growth were also recorded in the industry (-12.05%) and service sectors (-6.78%) while the growth rate in the agriculture sector remained positive (1.58%). Given that the strict lockdown measures were lifted at the end of the second quarter, and Nigeria’s major trading partners – Europe, the United States, and China – have reopened their economies, the GDP growth rate in 2020Q3 is expected to be more favourable than the preceding quarter. However, the coverage and targeting of the existing interventions for the vulnerable households and affected businesses should be improved in order to enhance their reach.