Total Nigeria merchandising trade stood at N9.12 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing an 8.9 percent increase relative to the preceding quarter and a 9.9 percent decrease relative to the corresponding quarter of 2019.1 For the fifth consecutive quarter, Nigeria recorded a negative balance of trade with the import component of trade accounting for 65 percent while export component of trade accounted for 35 percent. Crude oil accounted for 78.93 percent of Nigeria’s export while manufactured goods accounted for 64.56 percent of total imports. Nigeria’s major export trading partner is India (17.12 percent) while China (28.28 percent) accounted for most import to Nigeria. Improvements in foreign trade is expected to continue as economic activities in our major trading partner countries increase. However, diversifying the export base to include other goods such as agricultural commodities, textiles, and manufactured goods is pertinent. To achieve this, ensuring standardization of commodities and setting competitive freight charges will unlock the opportunities in external trade.
March 24, 2021
Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 11)
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Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 11)
In the crude oil market, OPECs weekly
basket price increased 1.07 percent from $29.02 per barrel in February 19 to
$29.33 per barrel in February 26. A combination of factors were
responsible for the slight price increase. First, a decrease in the number of
active oil rigs in the US2 (the lowest since 2009) may have
marginally eased the glut in the crude oil market. The ongoing efforts by OPEC
and other major oil producers such as Russia to freeze oil production have also
played a significant role in stemming the downward trend in oil prices. With
the current market conditions, the price of crude oil is expected to maintain a
fairly stable and modest upward trajectory in the near term.
Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 5)
The Naira continued to depreciate in the
review week. At the parallel market, naira exchanged for N498/$ on January 27,
2017 and N500/$ on February 3, 2017. Despite the weekly sales of forex to BDCs and
the significant improvements in the external reserves, the naira has continued
to lose value to other currencies. The pressure on the naira has been triggered
by escalating scarcity of forex in the spot market, likely due to
forex hoarding. However, in the preceding week, the CBN sold $660 million in forwards
contract in an attempt to manage liquidity and stabilize the naira.
In the face of growing speculation in the parallel market, the monetary
authority should institute mechanisms that would discourage excessive forex
hoarding among licensed BDC operators. An initiative that monitors transaction
dealings in the parallel market would go a long way in detecting erring BDC
operators.