The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that Nigeria’s fiscal balance is estimated to increase considerably. More specifically, general government deficit is projected to widen from 4.8 to 5.9 percent of GDP between 2019 and 2020.1 Also, public debt is projected to increase substantially to 34 percent of GDP in 2020 from 29.1 percent in 2019. The increase in government general deficit can be attributed to sharp revenue declines occasioned by the pandemic. Although revenue could increase given the increase in the Value Added Tax (VAT) rate from 5 to 7.5 percent in 2020, and expenditure savings from the removal of power sector and fuel subsidies, the concurrent increase in expenditure related to COVID-19 emergency support will drive the widening fiscal deficit. However, as domestic activities recover to pre-COVID levels and spending on household and businesses vulnerable to the pandemic tapers down, the fiscal deficit is projected to narrow in 2021.
February 19, 2021
Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 6)
Related
Nigeria Economic Review (First Half Report 2015)
The modest growth in the
global output witnessed in the first quarter of 2015 was driven mainly by
advanced economies, particularly the United States. Growth slowed down significantly
in emerging and developing economies, primarily natural resource-dependent
countries which were adversely affected by falling commodity prices.
Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 45)
Recently
released report by Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency
Initiative (NEITI)shows a significant decline in revenue
allocation across the three tiers of government for 2016H1 (January to June). Specifically, total disbursements dropped
(year-on-year) by 30.45 percent to N2.01 trillion in 2016H1. The
drop in revenue allocations is accountable to the decline in both oil and
non-oil revenue. While lower oil revenue was triggered by the drastic fall in
oil price and production in 2016H1, lower non-oil revenue was driven by the decline
in tax revenue occasioned by contraction in economic activities in the review
half-year.